O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 8

Oct 22, 2025

Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 8 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
1	DEN	DAL	32	31
5	KC	WAS	28	23
12	GB	PIT	31	19
16	CHI	BAL	30	14
14	ATL	MIA	27	13
8	PHI	NYG	20	12
4	BUF	CAR	10	6
15	PIT	GB	21	6
11	TB	NO	16	5
3	IND	TEN	7	4
26	NYJ	CIN	29	3
25	BAL	CHI	26	1
21	ARI	BYE	21	0
2	DET	BYE	2	0
17	JAX	BYE	17	0
6	LAR	BYE	6	0
29	LVR	BYE	29	0
22	SEA	BYE	22	0
27	TEN	IND	25	-2
24	NO	TB	22	-2
20	CAR	BUF	17	-3
9	NE	CLE	5	-4
10	WAS	KC	6	-4
7	SF	HOU	1	-6
19	LAC	MIN	12	-7
30	CLE	NE	23	-7
13	DAL	DEN	3	-10
18	NYG	PHI	4	-14
23	MIN	LAC	8	-15
31	CIN	NYJ	15	-16
32	HOU	SF	13	-19
28	MIA	ATL	2	-26

Chiefs vs. Commanders

Depending on your fandom or the level of love you have for parody, the Chiefs being all the way “back” is either exciting or frustrating. Regardless of personal feelings, one thing is for sure: it’s fantastic for fantasy. The offensive line has coalesced over the last month (26.1% pressure rate allowed is second-lowest over that span), and the return of Rashee Rice went about as well as you could imagine. Patrick Mahomes finished with a 286-3-0 stat line, averaging 8.2 YPA, and would have delivered even more fantasy goodness had he thrown a single pass in the fourth quarter.

Rice’s yardage (42) could have been better, but he still finished as the WR10 (19.7 half-PPR points) thanks to his two touchdowns, and he did all that on only 19 routes. That gave him an absolutely ludicrous 0.53 targets per route run, a mark that would lap Puka Nacua’s current league-leading 0.37. We should obviously expect some regression there, but the team did make it clear that he will be the focal point of the passing attack. As long as this offensive line stays strong, the floor and ceiling for Mahomes both just got a big boost.

Broncos vs. Cowboys

The Broncos sure made us wait a while for some production in Week 7, but boy, did they deliver. On the back of an insane 33-point fourth quarter, Bo Nix finished with a whopping 40.0 fantasy points, dragging Courtland Sutton (13.7), Marvin Mims (12.8), and Troy Franklin (11.4) into top-24 performances in the process.

The offensive line performed admirably against a tough New York Giants pass rush —albeit without rookie Abdul Carter— and they should get a much easier task here in Week 8, with the Cowboys defense ranking last or close to it in nearly every category of aFPA. While Nix and Sutton are Week 8 locks in starting lineups, both Mims and Franklin present interesting WR3 dart throws with so many byes.

Packers @ Steelers

The Green Bay Packers' offensive line isn’t quite as strong as it's been in the last couple of seasons, but just an “above average” unit should work just fine against a Steelers defense that allowed Joe Flacco to tear them apart last week. Against what has been a bottom-three unit all season long, Pittsburgh was able to force pressure on only 11 of Flacco’s 49 dropbacks (22.4%), while the secondary allowed 0.24 EPA per dropback, a rate that would rank 31st if extrapolated over the course of the season.

I don’t think anyone would argue that Jordan Love is far more talented than Flacco at this point in the latter’s career, and the same goes for each team’s o-line. So, if the Steelers' front four can’t generate pressure from their base defense, what is that going to mean for the Packers’ passing attack? Only good things. After allowing 11 explosive plays in Week 7, the Steelers have now allowed an explosive on 12.5% of their opponents’ snaps, the third-highest rate across the league. In that same metric, the Packers offense ranks second at 13.2%. That metric includes “explosive” runs as well, so it’s all the more impressive that they’re that high with Josh Jacobs only accounting for seven rushes that qualify (12+ yards) on the season.

This shapes up as a week to not only lock Tucker Kraft in your lineup, but also a rare instance where we should be confident in multiple Packers receivers, namely Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden. Love is a nice bet as a low-end QB1.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Falcons vs. Dolphins

We’ve been targeting the Dolphins offense for the past month, and the results have been good, particularly last week, when the Browns led all D/STs with 25.0 fantasy points. There’s no reason to stop the train now, with the Falcons entering the week as the No. 6 defense according to DVOA, where they’ve been as high as No. 1 at points this season.

Seventeen of the Dolphins’ thirty-one pass attempts last week came out in under 2.5 seconds, and yet Tua Tagovailoa and Quinn Ewers still combined to take four sacks, with Tua throwing three interceptions. We mentioned before that matchup that the interior would likely remain vulnerable, and that was indeed the case, as defenses are targeting rookie guard Jonah Savaiinaea. His pass-blocking efficiency metric now sits at 95.3 (56th/58 qualifying guards). The Falcons D/ST is still available in 60% of leagues if you need a streamer this week.

49ers @ Texans

The injuries keep piling up for San Francisco’s defense, yet Robert Salah continues to make a strong case for Coordinator of the Year. His unit held the Falcons to just 10 points in Week 7 while generating pressure on 40.5% of Michael Penix’s dropbacks. This week, they’ll face a Texans offense that has started to sputter, with C.J. Stroud completing only 46.9% of his passes and posting a 61.4% on-target rate last week — the third-worst mark in the league behind only Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa.

As long as the Texans' offense continues to feature Xavier Hutchinson and Braxton Berrios ahead of their two rookies (Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel), things will likely continue to be stagnant.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
1	DEN	DAL	29	28
3	IND	TEN	31	28
8	PHI	NYG	26	18
16	CHI	BAL	30	14
14	ATL	MIA	27	13
7	SF	HOU	19	12
13	DAL	DEN	24	11
5	KC	WAS	14	9
20	CAR	BUF	28	8
18	NYG	PHI	25	7
26	NYJ	CIN	32	6
11	TB	NO	17	6
12	GB	PIT	18	6
4	BUF	CAR	5	1
21	ARI	BYE	21	0
2	DET	BYE	2	0
17	JAX	BYE	17	0
6	LAR	BYE	6	0
29	LVR	BYE	29	0
22	SEA	BYE	22	0
23	MIN	LAC	22	-1
25	BAL	CHI	23	-2
10	WAS	KC	6	-4
24	NO	TB	20	-4
19	LAC	MIN	13	-6
9	NE	CLE	1	-8
28	MIA	ATL	15	-13
15	PIT	GB	2	-13
27	TEN	IND	11	-16
32	HOU	SF	16	-16
31	CIN	NYJ	10	-21
30	CLE	NE	7	-23

Eagles vs. Giants

Saquon Barkley managers are absolutely pleading with the fantasy gods to deliver an explosive performance that will make them feel more comfortable with their first-round pick. I’m here to tell you that it’s a distinct possibility that it happens here in Week 8. Left guard Landon Dickerson returned to action last week, and though center Cam Jurgens looks questionable ahead of Sunday’s divisional showdown, that might just mean that our beloved Tush Push gets reeled in.

To this point in the season, the Giants' run defense has allowed the second-highest yards per attempt (5.3) and yards after contact (4.0) in the league to non-quarterbacks. Fire Barkley up for a potential top-five finish.

Bears @ Ravens

Let’s keep this train rolling, Chicago. Over the last two weeks following the Bears’ bye, the offensive line has racked up 3.19 RB yards before contact, a mark that is a full yard ahead of the league’s leader (Lions - 2.19) when looking at the full season’s sample. There is the caveat that those two defenses (Commanders/Saints) have been permeable (h/t Jennifer Eakins) against the run, but it’s not as if the Ravens have been much better. Baltimore ranks 29th in defensive adjusted line yards (4.78) and 30th in RB aFPA.

D’Andre Swift is an obvious start here, while Kyle Monangai is worth consideration as a desperation FLEX with so many backs on bye.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: