How to Not Lose your 2025 Fantasy League in the First Round

As simple as it may sound, the easiest way to get a leg up in your fantasy league is to nail your first-round pick. Last year, for instance, drafting Ja'Marr Chase or Saquon Barkley in the first round would have given you a 70% chance of making the fantasy playoffs. That’s turning your playoff odds from worse than a dice roll to better than a coin flip. In this article, I’ll be walking through the top 12 players by ADP in 2025, breaking them into tiers to inform your first-round draft strategy.

Tier One: The Sure Things

I have no arguments with Ja'Marr Chase and Bijan Robinson being the consensus No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks this year. Chase is coming off one of the best fantasy receiver seasons ever, winning the NFL triple crown and averaging 20 half-PPR points per game. Repeating as the WR1 is a historically difficult challenge — the last player to do so was Antonio Brown in 2014 and 2015 — but Chase has as good a shot as anyone at doing so. He remains in a perfect situation as the top receiver in Cincinnati, with a top-5 quarterback in Joe Burrow throwing the ball to him. The Bengals project to have a putrid defense once again in 2025, meaning Chase should continue to benefit from plenty of pass-first game scripts. Chase has been a top-5 fantasy receiver whenever both he and Burrow are healthy, giving him a high floor even if he sees some touchdown regression. He’s an obvious pick with the 1.01 this year.

Robinson has high expectations after a productive second season, and the hope is that he can make the leap into fantasy superstardom in 2025. Robinson checks every box I’m looking for in a high pick: he is one of the most talented runners in the NFL, offers immense value in the receiving game, and is the clear top running back in his backfield. While Tyler Allgeier was a vulture in Robinson’s rookie year, Robinson asserted himself as the lead back with 75% of the snap share last season, removing any doubt that he won’t receive the volume needed to succeed.

The main concern with Robinson is that the Falcons offense may not be great if quarterback Michael Penix struggles in his first full season as the starter. Still, Robinson scored 15 touchdowns last year despite the Falcons finishing outside the top-10 in points scored and offensive EPA per play, so we know that Robinson can produce even on an otherwise average offense. I think Chase is slightly more of a certainty than Robinson because we know how good the Bengals offense will be, but I wouldn’t fault you for taking Robinson at the 1.01 if you would prefer to lock in an elite running back.

Tier Two: Clear Path to Greatness

All three of these guys have had elite fantasy seasons in recent years, but there’s just a small snag holding them from the top tier. For Saquon Barkley, the worry is the inevitable regression he is due for after a historically efficient season. Between the regular season and playoffs last year, Barkley ripped off seven 40+ yard touchdowns, which entirely made up for his decreased pass-catching and short-yardage red zone usage. The track record for running backs after seeing a 400+ touch season is shaky, so if Barkley struggles to keep up his legendary breakaway run rate, his fantasy numbers could start to falter. The Eagles run game and offensive line are so elite that Barkley very well may be able to keep up this pace, considering his own rushing talent, but it is something to keep an eye on, especially in full-PPR leagues.

I think that Jahmyr Gibbs is the best running back in the NFL, and he is at any given point a David Montgomery injury away from being an all-time great fantasy asset. Gibbs’ fantasy output in six career games without Montgomery is almost laughably dominant — he averages 110.9 rushing yards, 36.5 receiving yards, and over one touchdown, good for nearly 25 PPR fantasy points per game. This ceiling makes him well worth an early first-rounder this year, especially since Montgomery suffered a torn MCL in December of last season and may not be 100% to start the year. Thanks to the overall consistency of the Lions offense, Gibbs has been able to co-exist with Montgomery and still offer top-5 fantasy value playing just 50% of the snaps, making him a very enticing prospect in drafts this year.

CeeDee Lamb was the overall WR1 back in 2023, and he has a real shot at repeating that performance with quarterback Dak Prescott fully healthy. The added variable to Lamb’s case is newcomer George Pickens, who will compete with Lamb for targets as the No. 2 receiver. However, I’m optimistic that Pickens’ presence as a deep threat will make Lamb’s life easier as he operates in the middle of the field, and Pickens has never been a high-reception player. Lamb was on a 1,400-yard pace in nine games with Prescott last season, and has double-digit touchdown potential this year.

I would take Lamb before Gibbs and Barkley in full-PPR leagues since he could realistically lead the NFL in receptions once again. In half-PPR, I would give the edge to Gibbs, whose upside is too tantalizing to ignore. Barkley is by no means a bad pick, and I would definitely take him before the tier below, but I’m just a bit worried because his career peak is likely in the rear-view mirror.

Tier Three: A Few Question Marks

In years past, I have split the second half of the first round into two tiers, but I feel like all of these guys are pretty much interchangeable this season.

Assuming none of the top-tier players fall, my first priority of this group at the 1.06 would be Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown has finished as the WR3 in each of the last two seasons, and is one of the safest players you can draft. He is a near lock for 100+ catches and offers 10+ touchdown upside in an explosive Lions offense. Even if the Lions take a step back without OC Ben Johnson, St. Brown will receive enough volume from Jared Goff to maintain a top-10 floor. He is the epitome of a player who will not lose you your league in the 1st round.

Sticking with players who won’t completely tank your season, Jefferson would be my next choice. I’m a bit lower on Jefferson than consensus, but that’s more because he is going in tier two next to Lamb and Gibbs in some leagues. Jefferson hasn’t finished outside the top-5 in points per game at receiver since his rookie year, so there’s no doubt that he offers an extremely high floor in fantasy. I just don’t think he has clear overall WR1 upside because of the uncertainty around J.J. McCarthy under center, but like St. Brown, Jefferson is a steady, low-stress pick in the mid-first round.

After St. Brown and Jefferson are off the board, I would start to get a little bit more audacious with my picks. The 1.08 is the first spot where I’d consider taking Christian McCaffrey, who is about as boom-or-bust a player as I can remember. Every week that he is healthy, he would likely be the highest-ranked running back in fantasy, but he has played less than eight games in three of the last five seasons. I would gamble on CMC in PPR leagues at this spot, as picking near the turn gives you the advantage of securing a less volatile player at the top of the 2nd round.

Puka Nacua also comes with injury concerns, both for himself and for quarterback Matthew Stafford. However, we received encouraging news that Stafford returned to practice this week, indicating that he will be healthy to start the season. As long as Stafford is under center, Nacua will be an elite fantasy play — he averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game last season despite scoring just three touchdowns, a number that will almost surely increase considering the elite target share Nacua commands. Nacua was the most efficient receiver in football last year ranking first in yards, first downs, and targets per route run. Stafford’s back injury is certainly a risk, but I’m willing to bet on Nacua with the 8th or 9th pick because I think he has the best chance at finishing as the overall WR1 after the top-2 receivers.

Derrick Henry and Malik Nabers are much safer bets than McCaffrey and Nacua, but come with lower ceilings as well. Henry is in a dream situation playing next to Lamar Jackson in an elite Ravens offense, but he does not offer the pass-catching floor that most other first-round RBs have. Henry scored 18 total touchdowns last year, and may not be a surefire RB1 if that number drops closer to 10. Still, his guaranteed volume and history of performance make him a fine pick in the back of the first round.

Nabers, on the other hand, is stuck on what might be one of the three worst offenses in football this year. He will be a challenger to lead the NFL in targets and receptions as the only real receiving threat for the Giants, but could struggle to put up the touchdown numbers needed to be a home run pick.

Ashton Jeanty is a bit of a wild card since he is a rookie, but he is in a strong situation to succeed. He will not face much competition for touches in the Raiders backfield, and we know that head coach Pete Carroll puts a strong emphasis on the run game. If quarterback Geno Smith can propel the Raiders to an above-average offense, Jeanty would have a very exciting fantasy ceiling. Even if the Raiders are a middling unit, I’m confident that Jeanty will see enough touches to live up to the illustrious list of running backs drafted in the top-10 of the NFL draft.

To put a bow on this large third tier, I would take St. Brown and Jefferson with the 6th and 7th pick. After them, the decision is more about your mindset. If you’re comfortable with the injury downside associated with McCaffrey and Nacua, then I would take them 8th and 9th overall. If you would rather play it safe, then Henry, Nabers, and Jeanty are three reliable picks who will get you on base to start your draft. To start the 2nd round, I would primarily be targeting a receiver like Nico Collins or Brian Thomas Jr., regardless of what position you took in the late first.