O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 6

Oct 11, 2023

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I will be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA—one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what O-Line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
2	KC	DEN	31	29
4	DAL	LAC	30	26
8	TB	DET	24	16
15	MIN	CHI	29	14
7	IND	JAX	21	14
13	ATL	WAS	23	10
18	JAX	IND	27	9
17	CIN	SEA	26	9
25	LAR	ARI	32	7
16	SEA	CIN	22	6
5	LAC	DAL	10	5
1	PHI	NYJ	6	5
21	CAR	MIA	25	4
14	BUF	NYG	17	3
6	CLE	SF	9	3
11	SF	CLE	13	2
12	BAL	TEN	14	2
9	GB	BYE	9	0
28	PIT	BYE	28	0
3	DET	TB	2	-1
30	NYJ	PHI	28	-2
10	MIA	CAR	7	-3
23	NO	HOU	19	-4
26	CHI	MIN	20	-6
27	ARI	LAR	18	-9
24	HOU	NO	11	-13
19	DEN	KC	5	-14
22	NE	LVR	8	-14
20	LVR	NE	4	-16
29	WAS	ATL	12	-17
31	TEN	BAL	3	-28
32	NYG	BUF	1	-31

Cowboys @ Chargers

Cowboys former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will take on his former team on Monday Night Football in a game that should produce plenty of fantasy fireworks. Though both offenses will set up in good positions to move the ball, the Cowboys' offense has the better on-paper matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing offenses and the third-most to quarterbacks.

People who watched the Cowboys’ Week 5 decimation at the hands of the 49ers’ pass rush may be wondering how the Dallas offensive line is going to match up against the “other” Bosa brother when Los Angeles tries to replicate that success, but it’s worth pointing out that this was the first time the offensive line had played as a cohesive unit all season. Right tackle Terence Steele arguably had one of the worst games of his career, allowing eight pressures all by himself—almost half of the 18 the team surrendered in total. With all-world guard Zack Martin playing next to him and a seemingly healthy Tyron Smith playing on the opposite side, we’ve likely seen the low point for a healthy Cowboys offensive line.

Mike McCarthy should feel the heat to roll out a more explosive offense against his former co-worker, as his play calling has been somewhat conservative to this point in the year, though much of that is because his defense has padded the scoreboard with four D/ST touchdowns and 11 forced turnovers. Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard, and CeeDee Lamb should all be easy starts in fantasy this week.

Buccaneers vs. Lions

The Detroit Lions have been everything we have expected to this point after being America’s darling as a rebuilding squad over the 2022 season. While they have racked up a 4-1 record, with their only loss coming in overtime, they have been a susceptible defense through the air, currently ranking 24th, 27th, and 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends, respectively. On the other side of the ball in Week 5, they will take on a surprisingly competent Buccaneers offensive line that ranks 13th in QB pressure rate allowed (33.1%) and fourth in adjusted sack rate (4.72%).

With guard Shaq Mason leaving for the Texans in free agency and center Ryan Jensen hitting the season-ending IR before the team took a regular-season snap, it was a foregone conclusion that this unit—particularly the interior—would be a disaster. Throw in journeyman Baker Mayfield at the helm, and not many projected this offense to be a very exciting one. While “exciting” would be an overstatement, the offense has been serviceable, largely due to this unit that ranks second in passing-play blown block rate (1.92%).

The bye week came at a good time, as wide receiver Mike Evans went down back in Week 4 and would have almost certainly missed last week had the team suited up, be he was instead allotted extra time to nurse his hamstring injury and looks to be ready to go for Sunday’s NFC battle. Evans and Chris Godwin should be considered WR2s in fantasy this week, while Baker Mayfield and Cade Otton can be considered at their respective positions in deeper leagues.

Colts @ Jaguars

With Ryan Kelly back at center after missing the previous two weeks with a foot injury, the surprising Colts offensive line was (mostly) back to health, and they had another zero-sack game despite right tackle Bernhard Raimann remaining on the sideline due to a concussion. The dynamics of the offense clearly change with Anthony Richardson hitting the IR, but the team is still in a good position to move the ball, with Gardner Minshew taking over.

The team will have difficulty bottling up EDGE rusher Josh Allen, this week, but the rest of the Jaguars pass rush has accounted for only three sacks through five games. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Jaguars are one of only five teams to record zero sacks from the 0-through-3 defensive techniques, or, anyone lining up from directly over the center to the outside shoulder of the guard. That stat is exasperated by the fact that the aforementioned Kelly and guards Quenton Nelson and Will Fries have combined for zero sacks allowed in their 13 combined games.

The Jaguars currently rank 21st in QB aFPA and 23rd in WR aFPA, which should build a fantasy floor for Minshew, even if the team decides to lean on the run with Jonathan Taylor presumably up-to-speed.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Falcons vs. Commanders

While the Commanders' offensive line hasn’t been great up to this point, quarterback Sam Howell is also creating a floor for all fantasy defenses with his propensity to take sacks. The offensive line has allowed a below-average 36.2% pressure rate (22nd) to this point in the season, but Howell has turned 34.1% of his pressures into sacks, easily leading the league and nearly double the league-average pressure-to-sack rate of 19.8%. And this was with the team allowing zero sacks on 60 Week 5 dropbacks.

So, maybe Howell is learning to throw out of sacks (he did have three throwaways in Week 5), or this could be a fluke. I would rather bet on the latter and liberally plug the Falcons into DFS lineups.

Vikings @ Bears

The Bears offense looked fantastic in their first win of the season, hanging a 40-burger on the Commanders during Thursday Night Football while Justin Fields threw for four touchdowns in his second game in a row. On the negative side of things, Justin Fields took three sacks, the fifth time in five games he has taken at least three, as the team ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate (11.9%) and 29th in pressure rate allowed (41.4%).

The team has another on-paper softer game here in Week 6 and will presumably have a full game of Teven Jenkins after he split snaps last week. Regardless, the Vikings still have a built-in fantasy floor in this matchup and two separate games with at least four sacks on their ledger this season.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
2	KC	DEN	32	30
1	PHI	NYJ	25	24
10	MIA	CAR	30	20
15	MIN	CHI	31	16
4	DAL	LAC	19	15
3	DET	TB	16	13
12	BAL	TEN	20	8
5	LAC	DAL	11	6
18	JAX	IND	23	5
21	CAR	MIA	26	5
17	CIN	SEA	22	5
25	LAR	ARI	29	4
23	NO	HOU	27	4
22	NE	LVR	24	2
6	CLE	SF	8	2
16	SEA	CIN	17	1
9	GB	BYE	9	0
28	PIT	BYE	28	0
14	BUF	NYG	14	0
13	ATL	WAS	13	0
11	SF	CLE	7	-4
7	IND	JAX	2	-5
8	TB	DET	1	-7
20	LVR	NE	9	-11
32	NYG	BUF	18	-14
19	DEN	KC	5	-14
26	CHI	MIN	12	-14
24	HOU	NO	10	-14
31	TEN	BAL	15	-16
27	ARI	LAR	3	-24
30	NYJ	PHI	6	-24
29	WAS	ATL	4	-25

Eagles @ Jets

In typical Eagles style, there will always be some sort of committee approach to their backfield, but they have made it clear that they are comfortable with D'Andre Swift in the majority role. Since the team’s Week 1, 25-20 win over the New England Patriots, Swift has handled at least 18 opportunities in every game, averaging 126.5 scrimmage yards on 25 attempts-plus-targets per game behind an offensive line that ranks sixth in RB yards before contact (2.17) and third in adjusted line yards (4.86).

The Jets' front four boasts some incredible pass-rushers, but their rush defense ranks 25th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Swift is a high-upside RB2 for Week 6.

Dolphins vs. Panthers

Currently leading the league in both running back yards before contact (3.35) and adjusted line yards (5.37), this offense is being schemed into perfection. The offensive line is doing its job, even with all-world tackle Terron Armstead hitting the IR due to a knee injury. More recent injury news has seen explosive running back De'Von Achane also finding himself out of action until at least Week 11, but this is still an obvious spot to exploit. The Panthers gave up 107 yards rushing to David Montgomery last week and have allowed each of their last three respective opponents' No. 1 RBs to hit at least 95 yards.

As such, they rank dead-last in adjusted line yards (5.46) on the year and have allowed the third-highest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs. Raheem Mostert is locked into an RB1 fantasy projection, while Jeff Wilson can be considered an RB3 for teams looking for running back help.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: