6 Fantasy Football RBs Whose Touchdowns Are Trending Up & Down

Jun 09, 2026

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For the last couple of years, I've used this outlier touchdowns column to spotlight fantasy players due for regression — positive or negative — in the upcoming season. Not to toot my own horn, but the 2025 running back edition was a rousing success. All three of the RBs due to score more in 2025 — D'Andre Swift, Travis Etienne, and Jaylen Warren — improved their touchdown totals ... and they combined for an increase of 22 scores year-over-year. Zach Charbonnet was the only real miss of the RBs due to score less, but James Cook saw a slight dip as predicted, and David Montgomery was a major fantasy bust after logging four fewer TDs.

More Outlier TD Pieces: QB | WR | TE (coming soon)

First, a quick crash course on the data. There is a consistent historical rate at which an average NFL player finds the end zone, relative to their opportunity. That rate can be more specifically dissected by field position to offer a more granular look at the data — unsurprisingly, a goal-to-go target has a much higher chance of producing a touchdown than a carry from midfield.

While these historical rates aren't necessarily the same thing as predictive probabilities, they are usually quite close over a decent sample. The following table lists a bird’s-eye view of the touchdown rates for all running back opportunities (carries and targets) over the last 10 seasons, with field positions aggregated for simplicity.

RB TD Rates by Field Position, Last 10 Seasons
Line of Scrimmage	TD Rate, Carries	TD Rate, Targets
Goal Line (Opponent 1-5)	40.10%	47.80%
Scoring Position (Opponent 6-19)	6.40%	14.20%
Total Red Zone (Opponent 1-19)	17.20%	19.30%
Long Distance (Opponent 20+)	0.50%	0.86%
Total	3.10%	3.00%

So, if these numbers mark the "norm," what constitutes an "outlier season" for an RB? Let's take a look at Jonathan Taylor as an example. All the way back in his 2021 overall RB1 campaign, Taylor scored on an elite 5.2% of his opportunities, resulting in 20 total scores and heavily inflating his fantasy output. The next year, he scored on just 1.7% of his opportunities, ultimately averaging 8.7 fewer fantasy points per game. His efficiency was much more reasonable in 2023 and 2024, but it spiked again in 2025. Taylor scored on 5.3% of his 378 opportunities, which converts to nearly nine touchdowns above expectation, and finished as the RB2 as a result.

Even as one of the best running backs in the league, we can forecast statistical regression for Taylor in 2026, and that understanding should impact our evaluations for fantasy. Obviously, the same thinking works in reverse for players who score well below expectation.

With all this math in mind, here are six names to note coming off last season's results and heading into 2026 fantasy drafts.