6 Fantasy Football QBs Whose Touchdowns Are Trending Up & Down
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In this fourth and final installment of the touchdown trends series here at 4for4, we'll be taking a look at the quarterback position. In nearly every circumstance, touchdowns are the most volatile statistic to track. But, as we all know, they’re also the most crucial. In typical scoring, a quarterback can drive the entirety of the field, completing 10 passes for 98 yards along the way, and a single shovel pass for a touchdown from the goal line counts for more points than the prior 10 completions combined.
More Outlier TD Pieces: WR | RB | TE
But if touchdowns are so volatile and inconsistent, how will we ever find success predicting the year-to-year results? Regression to the mean. Put simply, the further a player is from their statistical average in a given sample, the more likely they are to regress back towards that average — whether positively or negatively — in successive samples. Here's a look at the data over the last 10 years, split up by field position (since TD rates skyrocket closer to the goal line).
| Line of Scrimmage | Pass TD Rate |
|---|---|
| Ten Zone (Opponent 1-10) | 35.6% |
| Red Zone (Opponent 1-19) | 24.2% |
| Opponent Territory (Opponent 1-49) | 9.6% |
| Midfield Plus (Own 1 - Midfield) | 0.6% |
| Total | 4.4% |
With this math in mind, here are some quarterbacks we can predict for a noteworthy shift in touchdown production in the 2026 season.
Which Quarterbacks Should Trend Down in 2026?
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
- 2025 Touchdown Rate - 7.7%
- 2025 Actual Pass TDs - 46
- 2025 Expected Pass TDs (NFL Average Rate) - 26
- 2025 Expected Pass TDs (Prior Career Rate) - 27
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