2023 NFL Futures: Odds, Bets, and Predictions to Make The Playoffs

Jun 27, 2023
2023 NFL Futures: Odds, Bets, and Predictions to Make The Playoffs

The NFL season is still months away but that doesn’t mean it’s a bad time to make some NFL Futures bets. Every bettor’s situation is different but what I have noticed is there are higher expected value bets to make in the futures market. It’s essentially pitting the time value of money against expected value.

Betting and financial jargon aside, Ryan Noonan and I combined for nearly 40 units in the futures market last year. You can find all of our bets for this year here!

There are tons of ways to bet on each team, including to win the Super Bowl, their win total, to win the division, and odds to make the playoffs. This is one of my favorite markets since you don’t need to run as hot as a super bowl or division winner yet get a better payout than a team’s win total.

Sign-up here or see how you can get all of our official bets for 3 months for just $5!

2023 NFL Odds to Make the Playoffs

2023 Odds To Make the Playoffs Bets

Teams with really long odds, either way, aren’t worth spending much time on, so I’ll skip around to the teams who are viable. It’s worth noting that given how the NFC and AFC are broken down, making the playoffs in the AFC is much, much tougher.

Arizona Cardinals Playoff Odds

Yes: +1000 at PointsBet

No: -2000 at Caesars

Kyler Murray is expected to miss some time during the year and the roster is barren in terms of talent.

Atlanta Falcons Playoff Odds

Yes: +120 at PointsBet

No: -135 at Caesars

Our own, SharpClarke, bought into the Falcons at over 7.5, and for good reason. In a weak division with the second-easiest strength of schedules, it’s easy to piece together a way in which they make the playoffs.

Lean: Yes

Baltimore Ravens Playoff Odds

Yes: -158 at FanDuel

No: +135 at Caesars

Lamar Jackson is back, and the Ravens added Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham to give Lamar a strong pass-catching group. The Ravens are in a great position to win 10+ games and make a run in the playoffs. Their win total is 10.5 in a lot of spots, so their odds to make the playoffs are a better look at this point. Last year the Dolphins made the playoffs with nine wins, while the Ravens and Chargers made it in with 10 games. Betting to make the playoffs instead of a juiced over 9.5 gives you the out of them winning exactly nine games and still making the playoffs. If they win 10 they are very, very likely in.

Lean: Yes

Buffalo Bills Playoff Odds

Yes: -240 PointsBet

No: +210 Caesars

The Bills would need an injury not to make the playoffs, but I’m not interested in laying -240, either.

Carolina Panthers Playoff Odds

Yes: +175 at Caesars

No: -192 at PointsBet

Even in a relatively weak division, I would need more than +175 on them making the playoffs despite the addition of Bryce Young.

Lean: No

Chicago Bears Playoff Odds

Yes: +175 Caesars

No: -200 at PointsBet

Unlike the AFC, the NFC had two 9-win teams make the playoffs as wild cards, and an 8-win team won a division. With a much lower barrier, +175 isn’t a bad look if you believe in Justin Fields hitting the upper range of his outcomes, as this is essentially a bet on 9+ wins. Given that their current win total is 7.5, getting over 8.5 at +175 is a reasonable value.

Lean: Yes

Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Odds

Yes: -310 at DraftKings

No: +275 at Caesars

The Bengals missing the playoffs would take two of the Browns, Ravens, or Steelers taking a step forward which while it's possible, it would need to be a bit longer for me to consider.

Cleveland Browns Playoff Odds

Yes: +120 at PointsBet

No: -120 at Caesars

If you believe in Deshaun Watson and the offense being competent, Yes at +120 is a solid look here. Ten wins gets them in, with the potential of 9 wins slotting them in as well which is a better way to play them then their win total.

Lean: Yes

Dallas Cowboys playoff Odds

Yes: -192 at PointsBet

No: +180 at FanDuel

Even in a tough division with the Eagles, the Cowboys are absolutely expected to make the playoffs via wildcard or division winner.

Lean: Yes

Denver Broncos Playoff Odds

Yes: +190 at PointsBet

No: -210 at Caesars

I’m not sure if Sean Payton is enough to rescue the disastrous 2022 offense, and even if he does, winning 9-10 games is an uphill climb with the Chiefs and Chargers in their division. That being said, this is probably a better bet than them winning the division.

Detroit Lions Playoff Odds

Yes: -165 at PointsBet

No: +140 at Caesars

The Lions will probably make the playoffs considering the Packers are now without Aaron Rodgers, and the Bears and Vikings are expected to be middle-of-the-pack, but -160 implies too much certainty for me to bet the yes.

Green Bay Packers Playoff Odds

Yes: +190 at PointsBet

No: -200 at Caesars

I’m starting to think the Packers are a bit underrated if their defense can live up to expectations and Jordan Love proves to be competent.

Lean: Yes

Houston Texans Playoff Odds

Yes: +650 at Caesars

No: -750 at Pointsbet

Even with second-overall pick CJ Stroud under center, it's tough to imagine too many ways that the Texans make the playoffs in 2023.

Indianapolis Colts Playoff Odds

Yes: +350 at FanDuel

No: -420 at Caesars

If you believe that Shane Steichen can turn Anthony Richardson into Jalen Hurts as a rookie, the "yes" here is a great look. That's far too rich for my blood so it's a stay away for me.

Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Odds

Yes: -195 at PointsBets

No: +175 at Caesars

There will likely only be one team making the playoffs out of this division, so you are much better off playing them to win the division.

Kansas City Chiefs Playoff Odds

Yes: -450 at Caesars

No: +360 at FanDuel

It would take an injury to Patrick Mahomes within the first few weeks for them to not make the playoffs which is not something I would want to bet on.

Los Angeles Chargers Playoff Odds

Yes: +100 at Caesars

No: -105 at FanDuel

The Chargers are in as good of a spot as ever to take the next step forward, and in a stacked AFC, they would likely need to win 10+ games. The current win total is 9.5 with juice on both sides, so +100 for them to make the playoffs might be a better look.

Los Angeles Rams Playoff Odds

Yes: +350 at FanDuel

No: -320 at Caesars

The Rams' defense may be one of the worst collective units in the league this year after losing Jalen Ramsey so a bet on the yes here is just putting the entire team on Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp returning to form.

Las Vegas Raiders Playoff Odds

Yes: +430 at FanDuel

No: -450 at Caesars

The Raiders would need to win 9+ games in order to make the playoffs which would require serious improvements from both the offense and defense.

Miami Dolphins Playoff Odds

Yes: -105 at FanDuel

No: -105 at Caesars

The Dolphins and Chargers are similar in the sense that they have been borderline playoff teams and play in the same division as a league juggernaut (Chiefs and Bills). Like the Chargers, I think the Dolphins have a good chance to be a serious playoff contender.

Lean: Yes: -105 at FD

Minnesota Vikings Playoff Odds

Yes: +120 at Caesars

No: -120 at PointsBet

The market might have overcorrected itself with the Vikings after last season. After going 13-4 last season and winning the division by four games, they are on the outside looking in in terms of odds. I’m not sure that should be the case in an average division in the NFC.

Lean: Yes

New England Patriots Playoff Odds

Yes: +285 at FanDuel

No: -299 at PointsBet

The Patriots metrics looked really good defensively but a lot of their success came against cupcake opponents. With a super tough strength of schedule and brutal division, I lean towards the "no" at -299.

New Orleans Saints Playoff Odds

Yes: -164 at FanDuel

No: +150 at Caesars

The Saints with competent quarterback play could be an intriguing team in 2023, but Derek Carr has proven to be far from consistent. If i'm laying juice, I want consistency and would rather tap into alternate win total overs if I think they will hit their ceiling.

New York Giants Playoff Odds

Yes: +184 at FanDuel

No: -170 at Caesars

The Giants greatly outperformed their roster last season and given these odds I'm not banking on it again.

New York Jets Playoff Odds

Yes: -134 at FanDuel

No: +125 at Caesars

The Jets' defense was stellar last season, while their offense was putrid. With Aaron Rodgers in town, that’s expected to change, but I see them as the third-best team in the division behind Miami and Buffalo.

Lean: No

Philadelphia Eagles Playoff Odds

Yes: -380 on Caesars

No: +325 at PointsBet

The Eagles had an amazing 2022 season against a soft schedule but now laying -380 on them to make the playoffs is incredibly aggressive.

Pittsburgh Steelers Playoff Odds

Yes: +128 at FanDuel

No: -145 at Caesars

The Steelers will need Kenny Pickett to take another step forward this season in order for them to reach their pinnacle. Mike Tomlin has yet to win fewer than 8 games in 16 years so the floor here on his coaching and defensive talent is pretty high.

Seattle Seahawks Playoff Odds

Yes: -120 at Pointsbet

No: +120 at Caesars

Geno Smith was elite for half the season but slowed down at the end of 2023. If he can rekindle the early-season fire, the Seahawks are in a good place to make another run at a playoff berth with two teams in their division lacking real firepower.

San Francisco 49ers Playoff Odds

Yes: -425 at DraftKings

No: +350 at BetMGM

The 49ers probably figure out their quarterback situation before Week 1, but right now, Brock Purdy may not be ready, Trey Lance has looked like he’ll never be ready to be an NFL quarterback, and Sam Darnold could very well be their Week 1 starter. He has been fine at times throughout his career but given the odds of +350, there is a disaster scenario for the 49ers where they have league-bottom quarterback play.

Lean: No

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Odds

Yes: +400 at Caesars

No: -475 at Pointsbet

Without Tom Brady and an offensive line that should still struggle, it's tough to be bullish on the Bucs.

Tennessee Titans Playoff Odds

Yes: +275 at PointsBet

No: -320 at Caesars

The Titans are underdogs in 6 straight games leading into their Week 7 bye this season. Changes could be made mid-season if they aren't performing.

Washington Commanders Playoff Odds

Yes: +285 at FanDuel

No: -340 at Caesars

The "Yes" here could be a great way to play the Commanders as their defense was top-10 in most defensive metrics last season. Sam Howell is the big question but if he is at least competent the Commanders could slide into the playoffs in a weak NFC.

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