Week 9 Breakout Player Model: Top NFL DFS Contrarian Plays

Nov 04, 2022
Week 9 DFS Breakout Model: Top Contrarian Plays

One of the biggest advantages you can deploy in daily fantasy is buying low on a player who has fallen out of favor with the rest of the field but is set up for a smash week. The 4for4 Player Stat Explorer is home to a model that compares a fantasy player's actual fantasy output with their expected fantasy output, based on their usage and historical data. The goal is to highlight players that have had the requisite usage (snaps, targets, air yards, etc) to produce big fantasy outcomes, but due to the natural variance of the sport have yet to do so. Many times, those underperforming players will be low-owned in DFS and make for fantastic contrarian plays, which this article will highlight.

More Week 9 DFS Strategy: Cash Game Breakdown | GPP Breakdown | Daigle’s Top Values and Picks | WR/CB Matchups

Fantasy Points Over Expectation: Weeks 6-8
Player Team Position Fantasy Points Expected PPG FP Over Expectation
Justin Herbert LAC QB 14.7 24.0 -9.3
Diontae Johnson PIT WR 8.9 16.1 -7.2
Tom Brady TB QB 14.2 21.2 -7.0
Marcus Johnson NYG WR 1.9 8.8 -6.9
Marvin Jones JAX WR 4.9 11.4 -6.6
Josh Reynolds DET WR 2.6 9.1 -6.5
Keelan Cole LV WR 5.0 11.0 -6.0
Chris Godwin TB WR 13.5 19.4 -5.9
Michael Gallup DAL WR 4.2 9.9 -5.7
Michael Bandy LAC WR 1.0 6.4 -5.5
Courtland Sutton DEN WR 3.7 9.0 -5.4
Brevin Jordan HOU TE 2.0 7.3 -5.3
Ryan Tannehill TEN QB 4.3 9.6 -5.3
Gerald Everett LAC TE 9.6 14.3 -4.7
DeAndre Carter LAC WR 5.7 10.4 -4.7
Marquez Callaway NO WR 4.2 8.8 -4.6
A.J. Green ARI WR 1.4 5.9 -4.5
Lamar Jackson BAL QB 16.6 20.8 -4.2
Sam Ehlinger IND QB 8.2 11.9 -3.7
Romeo Doubs GB WR 7.4 11.0 -3.6
Josh Palmer LAC WR 14.7 18.3 -3.6
DK Metcalf SEA WR 8.4 11.9 -3.6

QB Justin Herbert, Chargers ($7,800 FD/$7,200 DK)

WR DeAndre Carter, Chargers ($5,500 FD/$4,300 DK)

TE Gerald Everett, Chargers ($5,800 FD/$4,800 DK)

This should say Justin Herbert and friends because virtually the entire Chargers passing game lands on this list. They've underperformed over the last few weeks and are due for some good regression. With Mike Williams and Keenan Allen out this week, Austin Ekeler will be a popular piece in Chargers stacks. Many will also lean on Josh Palmer as the top pass-catcher in the offense. Given the fact that Gerald Everett, DeAndre Carter, and Michael Bandy have all landed in the top 20 of the breakout player model, it's smart to get unique in your lineups with double stacking. Herbert is going to be double-stacked with Ekeler and Palmer to a massive degree. Rotating the ancillary pieces in Everett, Carter, and even Bandy (if you're an MME, 150-max type player) is a good way to create different lineups.

Over the last two weeks, Carter has only managed to turn 12 targets into three receptions per game for minimal yards. It remains to be seen, but he could slide into the Keenan Allen role as a slot receiver and have a few more catchable targets. Everett is averaging right around nine fantasy points on eight targets per game in his last two contests. In the first four games of the year, he averaged more than 12 fantasy points per game on 6.5 targets per game. In the first four games of the year, he was basically hitting double the amount of fantasy points per target. I expect that to pick up against the Falcons

QB Tom Brady, Buccaneers ($6,900 FD/$6,000 DK) WR Chris Godwin, Buccaneers ($6,200 FD/$6,200 DK)

Another stack hits the board as Tom Brady and Chris Godwin are scoring 13 fantasy points under expectation combined over the last three weeks. Godwin has averaged 12 targets per game over the last three weeks, which has only turned into 13.5 fantasy points per game. He hasn't scored a touchdown this season either. He's absolutely due for touchdown regression. It's actually difficult to be targeted as often as he is, catch as many balls as he is, and still not get into the end zone. I realize that the Bucs use him more as a short-to-intermediate chain-mover, but his route running makes him a prime candidate when the Bucs are inside the 10-yard line.

Part of the reason there has been a lack of touchdowns is that the Buccaneers' offense as a whole, especially Brady, has sputtered in general. The Buccaneers have thrown the ball 46 times on average over the last four weeks and Brady has only thrown three touchdowns in those four games combined. The matchup isn't spectacular with the Rams coming to town, but we can potentially get a Brady/Godwin game since he moves around the formation and can likely avoid Jalen Ramsey. I think stacking up the Buccaneers, especially Brady and Godwin will be unique. Combined Brady and Godwin are the QB/WR tandem due to see the biggest upward swing in fantasy performance.

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