Yahoo! Week 14 $1 Million Baller and Cash Game Strategy

Dec 10, 2021

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Whether you are playing in the biggest tournament of the week on Yahoo! or prefer to play in smaller GPPs, there are some general positional strategies that you can implement in any size tournament. These concepts include stacking, finding pivots off of popular players, and looking for leverage in other spots. While it’s important to implement these into your lineup-building approach, the foundation of any tournament lineup is a solid core, usually players that you would use in cash games.

Stacks to Target

QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($38)

WR Tyreek Hill, Chiefs ($30)

Patrick Mahomes has failed to throw more than one touchdown in five of his last six games and the Chiefs have averaged fewer than 16 points in those contests. Those recent struggles might actually be good for DFS purposes, though, as rosters will likely be highly concentrated with Buccaneers and Bills despite the Chiefs having the highest implied total on the slate.

The one game in that stretch where Mahomes threw more than a single touchdown came against the Raiders, Week 14’s opponents. In that contest, Las Vegas surrendered 406 passing yards and five passing touchdowns. Las Vegas has tumbled to 23rd in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and rank 25th in adjusted sack rate.

Kansas City’s primary players are still sporting elite-tier salaries, so there a heavy stack isn’t required but Tyreek Hill stands out as a relative bargain. His salary matches its lowest point of the season and is down significantly from its peak of $38. Over the last six weeks, Hill ranks second in targets and air yards per game and he posted 24 Yahoo! points on this defense three games ago.

QB Taylor Heinicke, Washington ($28)

WR Terry McLaurin, Washington ($24)

Only two games have a higher over/under than Washington vs Dallas, and Washington could keep this game closer than expected by taking advantage of the Cowboys’ pass defense. Since Washington’s Week 9 bye, Taylor Heinicke has been among the most efficient passers in the league, with the seventh-most adjusted yards per pass attempt in that span. Dallas is one of two teams to allow five quarterbacks to surpass 300 passing yards in a game and one of eight defenses to allow at least seven 100-yard receiver performances.

With Logan Thomas out for the rest of the season, Terry McLaurin should benefit the most from a big passing day for Heinicke. The Cowboys have surrendered the fifth-most schedule-adjusted points to wide receivers and McLaurin stands out as a wide receiver that is due for some positive reversion to the mean.

Contrarian Plays to Target

WR Marquise Brown, Ravens ($19)

Marquise Brown has seen elite usage recently, ranked fifth in targets and target share over the last month but he has scored single-digit Yahoo! points in three straight games, resulting in his lowest salary since Week 6. Brown’s average target depth has plummeted since Baltimore’s Week 8 bye but that may be advantageous against a Cleveland defense that allows the fifth-highest QBR on intermediate passes (10-20 air yards).

WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks ($26)

Russell Wilson seems to be trending in the right direction after completing 30-of-37 with two scores in Week 13. That didn’t result in a big day for DK Metcalf but the Seahawks receiver has eight targets in three of his last four games with Wilson back and tops this week’s Breakout Receiver Model at 4for4. Metcalf ranks in the top 10 in expected points among all pass-catchers over his last three games and his numbers should normalize against a Houston defense that has allowed for offenses to pass for over 300 yards this season.

Cash Game Strategy

There have been some tremendous punt plays in recent weeks but the values are somewhat scattered across positions this week. Cash players should expect a somewhat balanced build with an emphasis on a couple of the highest-scoring offenses such as the Buccaneers and Chargers.