Week 12 PrizePicks Props
Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost.
Do not forget to check out the 4for4 PrizePicks tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Week 10 Record: 3-4
Season Record: 48-33
Injuries and Packers/Vikings going off were the biggest reasons for the under .500 record last week. I will gladly take an ‘L’ as long as we do not lose football players at the rate we have the past few weeks.
Week 12 Picks
Zach Wilson Under 14.5 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 13.8
In four road starts this year, Zach Wilson has fantasy outputs of 18.3, 2.6, 8.0 and 2.0 (injured). Excluding the injury score, that is an average of 10.3 points per game. The Texans' defense allows 269 passing yards per game, but it has also has collected 1.3 interceptions per game and they have played okay at home this season. Houston has allowed 27 points per game to opposing teams (four games) at home, but one of those games was littered with garbage-time points from the Jaguars and another was an expected blowout loss to the Rams. It is safe to say Zach Wilson cannot command an offense like Matthew Stafford. He has also thrown at least one interception in every game he has finished this season.
James Robinson Over 13.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 17.1
The Atlanta Falcons are a run funnel defense and James Robinson is a back who excels with a consistent workload. Robinson has been limited to 30 carries the past two games as a heel injury has slowed him a bit, but as long as he logs another limited practice on Friday for a total of three this week, it is safe to expect closer to 20 touches against the Falcons. Atlanta has allowed 10 backs to top 13 fantasy points this season and they allow an average of 27.94 per game. Robinson is averaging over four points per game through the air as well, another way for him to get to his prop total in a game where points could be plenty.
Saquon Barkley Over 54.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 54.3
Saquon Barkley has two limited participant tags this week and is inching closer to being 100%. This is only the third time this season the Giants have a positive matchup on the ground. The other two—versus Atlanta and Las Vegas—the Giants ran the ball effectively. Those two defenses are towards the bottom of 4for4’s aFPA, just like the Eagles. Philly has to travel to New Jersey and if there is one thing that will keep the Giants in the game, it is getting the running game going and keeping Jalen Hurts off the field. This is a vote for Barkley’s talent at home.
Antonio Gibson Over 61.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 68.4
The Seattle Seahawks head to the nation’s capital allowing 102 rushing yards per game. The Washington Football Team is going to do whatever possible to not force the game into Taylor Heinicke’s hands, especially on national television. Antonio Gibson has rushed the ball 43 times in two games since their bye week and has appeared to find a way to manage the fractured shin he is playing with. Gibson has 64 and 95 rushing yards in the past two contests against defenses ranked in the top half of the NFL in yards allowed to the position. Gibson should cover this prop relatively easily as long as Washington's defense can attack Russell Wilson and the struggling Seahawks offense.
Baker Mayfield Over 210.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 232.0
Baker Mayfield did not have to throw much last week and the Patriots' defense shut down the Browns in Week 10. That more than explains the past two games in which he could not eclipse 200 passing yards. Prior to that, he topped 210 passing yards in his first two games with the left should harness. Mayfield was also a full participant during Thursday’s practice, another sign he is getting comfortable managing his left shoulder issues. The Baltimore Ravens are a difficult offense to contain with a healthy Lamar Jackson, and with the Ravens defense being a pass funnel, expect Mayfield to throw the ball at least 30 times on Sunday. It also appears Donovan Peoples-Jones, a Mayfield favorite, is trending towards playing.
Zach Pascal Under 30.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 27.1
Zach Pascal is back to being the third wideout for the Colts. He has been out-targeted by Jack Doyle, Michael Pittman Jr., Nyheim Hines, Jonathan Taylor and T.Y. Hilton the past two games, while having the same number of targets as rookie Kylen Granson and tight end Mo Alie-Cox. The return of Hilton and the emergence of Taylor in both facets of the offense has allowed Carson Wentz to spread the wealth to his passing options, which is only good in real-life football. It is okay to say a lot of his production this season came with Hilton out, especially since Pascal has failed to secure three receptions in either game the past two weeks after doing so in five straight prior to Week 10.
Deebo Samuel Over 63.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 92.6
Deebo Samuel has one of the bigger discrepancies in projected production compared to his prop. The number feels especially low since Samuel has topped 63 Receiving yards in 7-of-10 games this season, including four straight times from Weeks 7-10. Samuel saw eight touches from the backfield last week in part because the 49ers were thin at running back. That should change in Week 12 as Elijah Mitchell is expected to play in some capacity. The Minnesota Vikings travel to Santa Clara this week and have the 32nd-ranked pass defense according to aFPA. This is a big-time smash spot for Samuel.