DRAFT Week 10 Breakdown and Top Plays

Nov 09, 2017
DRAFT Week 10 Breakdown and Top Plays

Week 10 brings four teams with the week off, a slew of injuries, new matchups, and a fresh set of players primed for your DFS lineups. The DRAFT platform has put together a unique format that marries redraft and DFS together into one exciting and different power couple.

Their weekly fantasy contests are not your typical salary cap format. Instead, they offer a series of snake-style draft contests with differing team amounts. You can choose from head-to-head, 3-team, 6-team, 8-team, or 10-team contests, with varying dollar amounts per contest. With each draft, players must select five position players: 1QB, 2RB, and 2WR/TEs. There are no salaries, no ownership percentages, and no large tourneys.

Below I will take a look at some of the best plays of the week, according to league size. You will see multiple references to aFPA, which is our schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. By using aFPA, we remove bias so that we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. One more note: remember that DRAFT is a snake-style format, so you must plan accordingly in larger contest sizes.

H2H

With only two drafters involved, your cumulative score just has to be higher than that of your opponent. Since only 10 players are involved, stick to the elite DFS chalk here.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson (SEA) @ ARI

Sure, Thursday Night games aren’t the best, but we can’t ignore Wilson’s recent production. He’s in a groove, posting an average of 361 yards and 3 touchdowns, translating to 88.02 DRAFT points over the last three weeks. He faces a Cardinals defense ranked 26th against the pass, and should continue to do his thing.

Matthew Stafford (DET) vs. CLE

Like Wilson, Stafford has been on a tear lately, posting over 300 yards passing in his past three contests, two of them coming in road games. He gets a nice, cushy home tilt versus the Browns in Week 10, a team whose secondary ranks dead last in QB aFPA, allowing 20.4 fantasy points per game to the position. Stafford should throw at will on Sunday, so grab him when you can.

Running Backs

LeVeon Bell (PIT) @ IND

With no salary or ownership numbers to worry about, Bell is as chalk as it gets this week. The Steelers are favored to win by 10 points, with an implied total of 26.75. The Colts' defense has an aFPA of 27.0 to opposing rushers, allowing the fourth-most points to the position weekly. All of this is a recipe for a huge Bell week, so draft him every chance you get.

Leonard Fournette (JAX) vs. LAC

You may be gun shy after last week’s DRAFT-Fournette debacle, but draft away. The rookie RB has a touchdown in every NFL game he’s played, and is up against a Chargers defense ranked 28th versus the run, with an aFPA of 26.7. Fournette averages 20.45 DRAFT points per game. With a few weeks rest, he should continue to put up a solid point total for you this week.

Jordan Howard (CHI) vs. GB

As difficult as it is to think of Howard as chalk, he fits the bill this week. Chicago is a home favorite versus a Packers’ defense with an aFPA of 25.2 to opposing RBs, and an offense that can’t manage to stay on the field. Howard leads the Bears offense in touches with 176, averaging 22 per contest, which is more than doubles Tarik Cohen’s 10.3 a game. Howard is projected as DRAFT’s fourth-highest scoring back this week, potentially third, depending on Ezekiel Elliott’s status.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Antonio Brown (PIT) @ IND

Brown on this list is evergreen, but let’s go through the formality for the fun of it. He leads the league in WR targets, and sits second in total DRAFT points with 130 on the season. In Week 10, the Steelers travel to Indy, to face a Colts defense Brown gutted last November for 99 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s always in the conversation and should always be on your roster.

Rob Gronkowski (NE) @ DEN

Well rested and ready to smash, Gronk is an excellent play this week in Denver. The Broncos rank 28th versus tight ends, and have given up some monster points in the past two weeks, including 26.3 to Travis Kelce in Week 8 and 19 points to backups Trey Burton and Brent Celek last week. With Chris Hogan’s health in question, Gronk may even see more work than usual, especially in the red zone.

Doug Baldwin (SEA) @ ARI

The Seattle wideout doesn’t get the love that he should as the WR6 in fantasy points this season. He’s averaging 12.25 DRAFT points per contest, and has put up a very respectable 538 receiving yards through eight games. Like Wilson above, Baldwin’s come in hot as of late, amassing WR2 points in Weeks 7-9. Arizona ranks 27th in the league versus WRs, so he could be in for a monster game on Thursday night.

3-Person Draft

When you enter a contest with only three teams, you’re either picking two players at a time, or you’re in the middle of two drafters doing just that. Same studs apply here; draft accordingly.

6, 8 or 10-Person Draft

Below you’ll find a few more recommendations for Week 10 starters to assist in filling out five-player rosters when more players are involved. You’ll need to dig a bit deeper into the rankings to find a player or two who will out-produce the players your opponents draft.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott (DAL) @ ATL

Sophomore Prescott is somewhat quietly having a stellar year, putting up QB4 numbers through the first half of the season. He’s averaging 22.03 DRAFT point per matchup, for an impressive 176.22 total points. He travels to Atlanta where the over/under is currently 50.5, the highest number on this week’s slate. Prescott could be without Ezekiel Elliott, which raises his floor even more, due to the QB’s mobility.

Matt Ryan (ATL) vs. DAL

As the other QB in the highest projected over/under of the week, Ryan is in play at home against the Cowboys. He’s not having a season like 2016, but the veteran QB is still putting up decent weekly numbers, with a DRAFT average of 15.65 points. He’s DRAFT’s highest ranked QB in Week 10 and is a solid choice in larger contests, as some may shy away from the hype-less QB.

Jared Goff (LAR) vs. HOU

DRAFT has Goff a bit lower in their projections, but I disagree. The Rams QB has averaged 17.21 DRAFT points over the past three games and sits 12th overall in QB fantasy points. Goff gets a home tilt versus the sixth-worst passing defense, and has the potential to be on the field more than usual due to an anemic Tom Savage-led Texans offense. Goff is a guy you can wait on while the other drafters take QBs, allowing you to load up on top RBs and WRs.

Running Backs

LeSean McCoy (BUF) vs. NO

Buffalo’s workhorse had a rough Week 9, but posted 24.70 and 26.30 DRAFT points, respectively, in the two weeks prior. McCoy gets a home contest against the Saints on Sunday—a defense that has given up some monster points to TEs this season, including 22.8 to Aaron Jones in Week 7 and 49 total points to the Patriots backfield in Week 2. Shady leads the team in both touches and targets, and look for him to eat this week.

Todd Gurley (LAR) vs. HOU

The Rams are 11.5-point favorites at home, with Gurley carrying the bulk of the load. He’s averaging 23.8 touches per game and 21.61 DRAFT points a week. The Texans' defense has been tough versus the run, but Gurley’s high volume of red zone opportunities makes him a safe choice to draft in any contest.

Carlos Hyde (SF) vs. NYG

Hyde’s currently playing 74% of the 49ers snaps, and boasts the second-highest targets among RBs with 57 on the season. The Giants rank 21st in RB aFPA, allowing 24.5 PPR points to the position. Despite being the home underdog, Hyde should produce this week and makes a nice contrarian play in larger contests.

Mark Ingram (NO) @ BUF

Even with Alvin Kamara getting so much attention, Ingram is the Saints RB to roll with this week. His touches are nearly double Kamara’s over the past four games, and his snap count is larger as well. Buffalo’s defense has allowed their last two opposing RBs to score over 20 fantasy points, and this contest has an over/under of 46.5 points, boding well for Ingram’s potential. Let your opponents grab Kamara, and take Ingram’s high volume and consistency.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

A.J. Green (CIN) @ TEN

Green killed many a lineup last week with his UFC impression, but he’s back and ready for a productive fantasy week. The Titans rank 21st in aFPA, allowing 34.9 PPR points to opposing WRs. Green’s projected 11.9 DRAFT points sits as the fifth-highest among wideouts. He is always in the DFS mix.

Marvin Jones (DET) vs. CLE

Jones is averaging 20.2 DRAFT points in his last three games, and is an integral part of the Lions offense this season. Detroit’s implied total is 28 points this week, and Jones faces a porous Brown’ defense. He’s been targeted more in the past two games than Golden Tate and has a 96% snap count in that same time frame. Jones is a great option this week and could be undervalued in DRAFT contests.

DeSean Jackson (TB) vs. NYJ

Here’s a guy who won’t be highly drafted, but could surprise as a high scorer this week. With Mike Evans on the shelf due to a one-week suspension, Jackson could see a high volume against a soft, 27th ranked Jets defense whose WR aFPA is 37.1. Grabbing Cameron Brate in a few contests may also benefit you this week, as someone has to catch the rock in this double revenge narrative game.

Dez Bryant (DAL) @ ATL

With an over/under of 50.5 points, this game is projected to be a shootout. Bryant could be in for a massive day if he's healthy. He’s WR5 in targets this season and with Ezekiel Elliott possibly out, he could be thrown to even more than usual. Atlanta lands in the middle of the league at defending WRs, but gives up an aFPA of 28.7 to wideouts each week. Bryant projects to score 11.4 DRAFT points this week, but I suspect that number will inflate a bit when the dust settles. Watch his lower leg injury, and draft accordingly.

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