Quarterback by Committee, Part 3: The 2026 Goff Gambit

In Part 2, we established that Jared Goff has the most exploitable home/away splits among the streamer-type quarterbacks in fantasy football. At full strength over the last two seasons, he's averaged 20.2 points at home and 15.2 on the road. That's not just a quirk—it's a five-point swing on a significant sample that has held up year over year.

Here's how we use it.

The Goff Gambit isn't a strict home/away rule. It's matchup optimization built around a player whose home environment is almost always his best one. We draft Goff late—he's going around pick 107 in Underdog—pair him with a second quarterback, and start whoever projects better each week. Because Goff is so reliable at home, he wins most of those head-to-head projections at Ford Field. On the road, the partner usually takes over, but not because of a rule—because the numbers say so.

The result is a committee that's hard to mismanage. The lineup decision is mostly made before the week starts.

The Munich Problem

One wrinkle worth knowing up front: the Lions play a "home" game in Munich in Week 10. It counts as a home date on the schedule, but a neutral site overseas obviously isn't Ford Field, so we treat that week as a road game for Goff and lean on the partner. That matters more for some pairings than others—a couple of partners are on bye that exact week, which leaves us stuck with road-Goff in Munich.

We want Goff's partner going in the ninth round or later. The ideal build is Goff in the ninth and a partner in the tenth, though depending on how the room goes, we may need to take them back-to-back in the eighth and ninth.

Here's how each of the best potential partners stacks up.

Brock Purdy — 334 projected points, ADP 96.7 (R9)

The highest-ceiling pairing on the board, and the most expensive. Purdy is good enough that he actually wins the head-to-head projection in nine of the 17 weeks—including one of Goff's home dates where Purdy's matchup is better (Week 3 vs. ARI). He also takes the Munich week. That's the upside: we're not just plugging a gap, we're running two legitimate starters and taking the better one every week.

The case for Purdy is strong even without the Goff piece. He was the overall QB2 on a per-game basis in his eight starts last season (through Week 17) at 21.5 points per game, closing the year with games of 26.2, 30.9, and 36.9. His efficiency metrics were elite: 96th percentile in EPA per dropback and 98th percentile in CPOE. The 49ers added Mike Evans alongside George Kittle's return from injury, so the supporting cast is legitimately better. He's a high-end QB2 who has finished QB6 and QB9 per game in his two healthy seasons.

The cost is that these are two ninth-round picks, which means spending single-digit round capital on the position twice. Purdy also carries availability risk—he's missed time in each of the last two seasons—though the committee structure eases that concern since Goff holds things down while he's out. If we're comfortable going back-to-back at quarterback in the eighth/ninth or ninth/tenth, this is the best pure-output option on the board. If not, read on.

Note: In Part 1, we established Purdy as a great QBBC anchor in his own right, so I don't mind pulling the trigger with Purdy, hoping Goff is there in the ninth or 10th round, and pivoting if he isn't.

Jaxson Dart — 331 projected points, ADP 96.3 (R9)

Nearly the same cost as Purdy and nearly the same result, which makes Dart a legitimate alternative if Purdy is gone. He beats Goff's projection in nine weeks, including a strong Week 4 matchup (a home date with Arizona) and both playoff weeks (Weeks 15 and 17). After taking over as the Giants' starter in Week 4 last season, he averaged 20.1 points per game in 12 starts—a top-six pace over that stretch—and his rushing upside is real: 40.6 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns per start. The supporting cast has improved with the expected return of Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely joining breakout tight end Theo Johnson.

The concern is entirely about the projection itself: Dart is a second-year player with almost no NFL track record, and his numbers are built on a thin foundation. The range of outcomes here is wider than anywhere else on this list. High ceiling, good rushing ability, and real uncertainty.

Matthew Stafford — 326 projected points, ADP 103.2 (R9)

This is the most thematically satisfying pairing. Stafford carries a genuine home lean of his own (+2.6), which means we're stacking two home-split quarterbacks—start each in his stronger environment and the effect compounds. He takes over for Goff in nine of the 17 weeks, including the Munich week, and delivers his best work when it matters most: a strong Week 17 finish (21.9 projected) makes him the best late-season option in this group.

He earned it last year. After a rough 2024, Stafford rebounded to finish QB3 overall at 20.2 points per game, with nine games over 20 and just one below 10—and 46 passing touchdowns, the most in the NFL. The 91st-percentile EPA per dropback backs it up. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams give him one of the better receiver duos in the league, and Sean McVay is a brilliant play-caller. The catch is regression: 46 touchdowns isn't a repeatable baseline, and at 38, he's a pocket passer with essentially zero rushing contribution.

The drawback for our purposes is cost. Stafford goes at 103, so this is probably an eighth- and ninth-build. But if we want to run the gambit in its purest form—two home-leaning quarterbacks, each played in his best spots—Goff/Stafford is the version.

Bo Nix — 325 projected points, ADP 105.1 (R9)

Nix brings the second-biggest home split of any partner (+2.9), which fits the strategy well. He's also one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the pool. Nix finished QB9 and QB8 in his first two NFL seasons while playing all 17 games both years, and the Broncos added Jaylen Waddle to a receiving corps that already included Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin. He's not an elite passer, but he can run, and a quarterback who has finished as a top-10 fantasy QB in both of his NFL seasons going in the ninth round is good value.

The issues are scheduling. Nix is on bye in Week 10—the same week Goff is in Munich—so that week we're forced to start travel-Goff in a bad spot, with no good alternative. And the playoff stretch is shaky: the Broncos play at New England while Goff is at Chicago in Week 17, so the championship may come down to a road quarterback either way–or even a streamer, which is not great. Nix is a fine option on talent, but those soft spots are why he slips behind Stafford despite a similar profile.

Jordan Love — 314 projected points, ADP 110.3 (R10)

Love is an intriguing tenth-round option. The one week Goff's number edges Love's is his road game in Miami in Week 9, where Goff (15.8) noses ahead of a Love road date; otherwise, Love takes all of Goff's off weeks, including the Munich game. He covers eight weeks as the partner, which is fine, but the per-week scores are modest enough that the committee lands a step below the names above.

His playoff weeks are a mixed bag—Week 15 at home against Miami is his best start of the stretch (18.7), but Week 17, even at home against Houston, is his weakest partner contribution in the group (15.1).

The larger case for Love is that he’s really good: 98th percentile in EPA per dropback and 96th percentile in CPOE last season. He's a better quarterback than his QB13 overall finish suggests—three early exits due to injury pushed his per-game average down, and he had a top-five finish in 2023. If Green Bay increases the pass rate even slightly and Love stays healthy, the gap between his efficiency and his fantasy output should close. Clean build, middling output, significant upside if the Packers let Love cook.

Baker Mayfield — 313 projected points, ADP 118.4 (R10)

Mayfield's own home/road split is nearly neutral, so we're relying on his matchups and his projection filling in Goff's off weeks, which they do in eight of 17. The one snag: like Nix, Mayfield is on bye in Week 10, so the Munich game falls to travel-Goff rather than to him—a soft week we can't avoid with this pairing.

Heading in with open eyes: Mayfield had a rough 2025. He slid from QB5 at 21.5 points per game in 2024 to QB18 per game at just 16.2, and he loses Mike Evans, his most reliable weapon. Chris Godwin's return to health, and Emeka Egbuka will have to fill that void. The gap between Mayfield at 313 and the ninth-round options above is real—a dozen-plus points—but so is the difference in draft cost. The question is whether those points are worth an extra round at a different position.

Tyler Shough — 308 projected points, ADP 118.2 (R10)

The cheapest of the viable options, alongside Mayfield, comes in around the same draft slot. The projection is fine—Shough starts seven partner weeks, including the Munich game, and holds his own. After taking over as New Orleans' starter in Week 9 last season, he averaged 17.1 points per game in nine starts—QB9 overall over that stretch—with solid accuracy (64th percentile in CPOE) and 21.9 rushing yards per start. The Saints added Jordyn Tyson to pair with Chris Olave heading into Year 2 with Kellen Moore.

He could also be a committee quarterback in name only if the Saints' offense doesn't develop. A speculative play with a reasonable price tag.

C.J. Stroud — 305 projected points, ADP 142.2 (R12)

The most intriguing name for managers who want to build cheaply. C.J. Stroud has the largest home split of any partner on this list (+3.5), and he falls all the way to the twelfth round. The problem is his projection: Goff's per-start road number is high enough to beat Stroud's matchup nearly every week Goff travels, so Stroud ends up earning just four starts—the fewest of any partner here. Even the Munich game goes to Goff over him. This is less a committee than a Goff team with an emergency backup.

At 305 points, the pairing is the lowest-scoring option by raw output, but at a combined ADP of 249, it's also the cheapest QB room on the board by a wide margin. If we want to spend almost nothing on the position, this is the pick. Stroud's 78th-percentile EPA per dropback last season suggests he's playing better football than his back-to-back QB19 and QB21 finishes indicate—a healthy Tank Dell returning alongside Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel could unlock a new level, and any leap in his projection would change this math quickly.

The Bottom Line

Two builds fit the "ideal ninth-and-tenth" cost structure: Goff with Love at 314 and Goff with Mayfield at 313. They're nearly identical in output and nearly identical in cost. Love covers eight partner weeks and takes the Munich game; Mayfield has the slightly cleaner schedule fit elsewhere but shares Goff's Week 10 problem, since he's on bye when Goff is in Munich. Either works, and the gap between them is noise.

One step up in cost—and roughly a dozen points higher in output—are the back-to-back ninth-round builds, or realistically using an eighth and a ninth on the position. Stafford is my preference there at 326: real home lean, the strongest Week 17 of any partner (21.9), he covers the Munich week, and two legitimate home-favoring quarterbacks compound each other's edge—if we are certain to run the Goff Gambit. Nix lands just behind at 325 and has the talent to match, but he's on bye in Munich and on the road in the Week 17 championship, two soft spots Stafford doesn't have.

If we are open to Purdy as the anchor—and I love his value—he is the ceiling play at 334, and he opens up a boatload of QBBC options if Goff is not available later in the draft. Dart is the wildcard ceiling play if we're feeling bold on a second-year player.

Every version of the gambit lands us in the same place: a QB room that projects in the 300s to 330s assembled without a top-95 pick at the position, built around a quarterback who's almost automatic for 20 points at a true home game. We're not hoping Goff is good. We're scheduling for when he is.