Quarterback by Committee, Part 2: Home/Road Splits and How to Use Them

Home field is worth something at quarterback. Across the league, it runs about a point a game—quantifiable, but not necessarily enough to move a lineup decision. For most quarterbacks, the home/road split is noise we can ignore.

A few guys are different. Their splits are big enough and consistent enough that we can plan around them. And in a committee, where the whole point is starting the right quarterback in the right week, a guy with a knowable split is worth something. The catch is telling the real splits from the fake ones, because the position is full of fake ones.

Filtering the Noise

Two things make a home/road split lie.

The first is partial games. A quarterback who exits early with an injury, or gets pulled in a blowout, or comes off the bench in relief, posts a number that has nothing to do with how he actually plays. Leave those in, and the average moves. So I filtered the splits down to games where the quarterback took at least 90% of his team's snaps—the games he played nearly wire to wire.

The second is small samples. Every season, a handful of quarterbacks show a loud split off a handful of games, and five or six games is not a tendency. Those guys are flagged in the table below, so we know which numbers carry weight and which ones are just early returns.

What's left, once we clear out the cameos and the rookies, is a short list of quarterbacks whose home/road gaps look real.

Home Cooking

Jared Goff's home/road splits are the stuff of legend. Over the last two seasons, in games where he played a nearly full snap load, Goff has averaged 20.2 points at home and 15.2 on the road. That's a five-point swing across a clean sample—the largest stable split of any quarterback we would realistically stream, and the kind of number that's held up year over year rather than spiking for a stretch and then regressing. Tightening the filter only made it bigger. When in the Motor City, Goff is a fringe QB1. On the road, he's a low-end QB2. Same player, two different fantasy outcomes, and we get to know which one we're starting before we set our lineup.

Behind him there's a real tier: C.J. Stroud (+3.5), Dak Prescott (+3.2), Bo Nix (+2.9), Matthew Stafford (+2.6), and Caleb Williams (+2.2). None of those are Goff-sized, but all of them are full or near-full samples, and a two-to-three point bump is exactly the kind of edge that could decide a start-or-sit when we've got two passers to choose from.

For proof that splits this big are real and not a quirk of the position, look at the top of the leaguewide list: Josh Allen sits at +5.9, and Jalen Hurts is right behind at +5.7. They're early-round picks, not committee pieces, so they don't help us here—but they're the clearest evidence that some quarterbacks genuinely are different players depending on where they're playing.

Putting It to Work

If one of our two committee quarterbacks has a hard home lean, we stop guessing. Start him at home, sit him on the road, and let the partner handle the away weeks. It gets better when the two quarterbacks' schedules fit together. If our home-heavy guy is on the road in Week 5 and our partner happens to be home that week, a soft spot turns into a strength. Stack enough of those, and we're starting somebody in a favorable building nearly every week.

That's not hypothetical. One of the home-leaning names above has a 2026 schedule that lines up with Goff's, almost like the two were drawn up to be paired. Run the two of them as a committee, and we end up playing a startling share of the season in the spots where each guy is at his best.

Who that pairing is, how the schedules combine, and exactly how much it's worth—that's coming up in Part 3.