Week 7 Breakout Player Model: Top Contrarian NFL DFS Plays

Oct 21, 2022
Week 7 DFS Breakout Model: Top Contrarian Plays

One of the biggest advantages you can deploy in daily fantasy is buying low on a player who has fallen out of favor with the rest of the field but is set up for a smash week. The 4for4 Player Stat Explorer is home to a model that compares a fantasy player's actual fantasy output with their expected fantasy output, based on their usage and historical data. The goal is to highlight players that have had the requisite usage (snaps, targets, air yards, etc) to produce big fantasy outcomes, but due to the natural variance of the sport have yet to do so. Many times, those underperforming players will be low-owned in DFS and make for fantastic contrarian plays, which this article will highlight.

More Week 7 DFS Strategy: Cash Game Breakdown | GPP Breakdown | Daigle’s Top Values and Picks | WR/CB Matchups

Most Fantasy Points Below Expectation, Weeks 4-6
Player Team Position Fantasy Points Expected Fantasy Points Fantasy Points Over Expectation
Matthew Stafford LA QB 11.5 18.5 -6.9
Mack Hollins LV WR 3.2 9.8 -6.6
Diontae Johnson PIT WR 7.9 14.4 -6.4
D.J. Moore CAR WR 8.8 15.1 -6.2
Baker Mayfield CAR QB 8.2 13.4 -5.2
Tom Brady TB QB 18.9 23.9 -5.1
Zay Jones JAX WR 7.3 12.1 -4.9
Jacoby Brissett CLE QB 14.3 19.1 -4.8
A.J. Green ARI WR 3.9 8.6 -4.8
Allen Robinson LA WR 7.2 11.9 -4.7
Amari Cooper CLE WR 12.3 16.9 -4.6
Romeo Doubs GB WR 8.9 13.4 -4.5
Lamar Jackson BAL QB 16.1 20.4 -4.3
Russell Gage TB WR 4.3 8.4 -4.2
Devin Duvernay BAL WR 8.1 12.2 -4.1
Curtis Samuel WAS WR 7.5 11.6 -4.1
Kalif Raymond DET WR 7.8 11.9 -4.1
J.D. McKissic WAS RB 6.4 10.4 -3.9
Mike Strachan IND WR 0.0 3.9 -3.9
Quintin Morris BUF TE 3.0 6.8 -3.9
Skylar Thompson MIA QB 4.6 8.3 -3.8
Courtland Sutton DEN WR 10.7 14.4 -3.7
Drake London ATL WR 6.1 9.7 -3.7
Carson Wentz WAS QB 12.1 15.7 -3.6
Robby Anderson ARI WR 4.9 8.4 -3.5
Christian Kirk JAX WR 6.8 10.3 -3.5

WR Amari Cooper, Browns ($7,200 FD/$6,100 DK)

Amari Cooper is certainly not a player who hasn't broken out yet this year. However, he is a player that is in a bit of a rut relative to his usage. In his previous two games, he racked up 12 targets from Jacoby Brissett which only led to 11 receptions for 120 yards. Though he did score in those two games, the ceiling for a 12-target game for Cooper is more along the lines of 10/120/1 like he flashed in Week 2 and 3 earlier this season. Normally, you wouldn't choose the Ravens as a breakout spot for a wide receiver, but their secondary has been a mess. They rank bottom five in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and with Lamar and Andrews on the other side of the ball, it could bring the Browns out of their normal run-orientated game script. A Browns' passing game stack will be solid leverage against the popular Ravens.

WR Zay Jones, Jaguars ($5,700 FD/$4,400 DK)

Zay Jones played a season-high 96% of snaps last week. With Marvin Jones' status in question that workload should remain the same. Zay Jones owns a target share and air yards share of about 20% so far this season, but his usage over the past two weeks should have produced better fantasy outputs according to 4for4's breakout model. Back in Week 3, he flashed his ceiling with a monster 10-catch game. Jones ranks seventh on the breakout player model, scoring about five fewer fantasy points per week than expected given his usage. He could be a sneaky part of a Giants/Jaguars stack or mini-stack this week.

QB Jacoby Brissett, Browns ($6,500 FD/$5,300 DK)

Brissett checks in as the eighth-best option on the breakout model. This recommendation was somewhat swayed by how much Amari Cooper popped as well. Brissett has had some unfortunate luck the last few games with end zone interceptions and drops that make him pop as a player scoring under expectation. The Ravens' offense should put points on the board and push the Browns to throw the ball above expectation. Of course, the Browns are going to make it a priority to establish Chubb and Hunt, but we can capture some leverage on the backs by rostering the passing game here. Brissett has been fairly active in the run game adding three fantasy points per game on average to his fantasy scoring, basically an extra passing touchdown.

WR Romeo Doubs, Packers ($5,800 FD/$5,000 DK)

Doubs earned 14 targets in the last two weeks and only has 11 fantasy points to show for it. That is a classic buy-low spot for a player who has shown the ability to convert on that type of usage earlier in the season. Doubs has a 20% share of overall targets, air yards, and red zone targets. Doubs gets a matchup with the Commanders who are near the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to receivers. This is a bit of narrative street, but after losses to both New York squads, I think the Packers will come out motivated to sling the ball around in Week 7 and make a statement. If Doubs sees the usage he has the last few weeks, he should have a bounce-back fantasy week.

About Author
Most Popular
Latest Articles