Week 18 Breakout Player Model: Top NFL DFS Contrarian Plays

Jan 06, 2023
Week 18 DFS Breakout Model: Top Contrarian Plays

One of the biggest advantages you can deploy in daily fantasy is buying low on a player who has fallen out of favor with the rest of the field but is set up for a smash week. The 4for4 Player Stat Explorer is home to a model that compares a fantasy player's actual fantasy output with their expected fantasy output, based on their usage and historical data. The goal is to highlight players that have had the requisite usage (snaps, targets, air yards, etc) to produce big fantasy outcomes, but due to the natural variance of the sport have yet to do so. Many times, those underperforming players will be low-owned in DFS and make for fantastic contrarian plays, which this article will highlight.

More Week 18 DFS Strategy: Cash Game Breakdown | GPP Breakdown | Daigle’s Top Values and Picks | WR/CB Matchups

Fantasy Points Over Expectation, Weeks 15–17
Player Team Pos Fantasy PPG Exp. Fantasy PPG Fantasy Points Over Exp.
DeAndre Hopkins ARI WR 9.4 20.5 -11.1
Nelson Agholor NE WR 3.2 12.0 -8.9
Mike White NYJ QB 8.4 16.2 -7.8
Garrett Wilson NYJ WR 9.0 16.6 -7.6
Greg Dortch ARI WR 13.9 21.0 -7.1
Colt McCoy ARI QB 6.8 13.6 -6.8
Marquise Brown ARI WR 8.6 15.4 -6.8
Olamide Zaccheaus ATL WR 2.9 9.2 -6.3
Michael Pittman IND WR 14.3 20.5 -6.2
TJ Hockenson MIN TE 17.0 22.8 -5.8
Nick Foles IND QB 2.9 8.7 -5.8
Trace McSorley ARI QB 4.8 10.6 -5.8
Drake London ATL WR 12.8 18.4 -5.7
Tutu Atwell LA WR 4.4 9.9 -5.5
DK Metcalf SEA WR 11.8 17.2 -5.5
Justin Herbert LAC QB 13.6 19.0 -5.4
Rhamondre Stevenson NE RB 9.1 14.3 -5.2
Allen Lazard GB WR 7.9 13.0 -5.1
Cade Otton TB TE 4.2 9.2 -5.0
Quez Watkins PHI WR 3.5 8.4 -5.0
Antonio Gibson WAS RB 4.9 9.8 -4.9
Alec Pierce IND WR 3.4 8.3 -4.9
Corey Davis NYJ WR 4.5 9.3 -4.9
Christian Watson GB WR 7.2 12.0 -4.8

WR DK Metcalf ($7,200 FD/$6,800 DK)

Metcalf faces the Rams defense who rank 25th in raw fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and have been a run funnel for much of the year. Though the Rams entire front seven may not be intact like earlier in the season, the Seahawks should still continue to look for Metcalf. Over the course of the last three games, Metcalf has 23 targets, which include two games with nine targets a piece. He struggled last week as Geno worked the middle of the field for the most part.

Metcalf should see another healthy 30% target share and push for double-digit targets against the Rams secondary. He's due for touchdown regression as he is a main end zone option for Geno Smith. The Seahawks remain motivated as a win and Packers loss would get them into the postseason. Fire up Metcalf in Seahawks stacks or as a one-off this week. Metcalf has averaged 5.5 fewer DraftKings points than expected over the last month.

WR Garrett Wilson, Jets ($7,100 FD/$5,800 DK)

I'll have another. White and Wilson landed on the breakout model last week and have re-upped for another week, this time in a road game against the Dolphins. Mike White will also be replaced with Joe Flacco in this game. White targeted Wilson a massive 11 times against the Seahawks, but couldn't connect for a big-time play, ultimately winding up with three receptions for 18 yards. He again sits near the top of the breakout player model averaging 7.6 fewer fantasy points than expected over the last month

WR Greg Dortch, Cardinals ($5,400 FD/$3,800 DK)

Dortch is a backup quarterback favorite coming down the stretch. He has 21 targets over his last two starts. Last week he only accrued four receptions for 15 yards on his double-digit targets. With DeAndre Hopkins out again, Dortch will most likely push for double-digit targets. The matchup with the 49ers is one that the Cardinals will most likely be in trailing mode for much of the game, which should result in a high pass rate. The 49ers are also a pass-funnel rating out 20th in pass defense. According to our breakout model, Dortch should be hitting an average of 21 fantasy points per week given his usage over the last month.

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