Week 8 PrizePicks Props
Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost.
Also, do not forget to check out the 4for4 PrizePicks tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Week 7 Record: 5-2
Season Record: 32-21
I had my best week on PrizePicks in terms of stacking picks to build entries. Carson Wentz would have been a better play had I assumed the Colts would win. I expected them to lose and it cost me on a five-play entry I built. Even on good weeks, there is always something to build on to get better.
Week 8 Picks
Travis Kelce Under 20.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 17.5
This one hurts to write as Travis Kelce has been the best tight end of the past half decade. The concern is not Kelce getting production, but not getting enough of it. He has not topped 20 fantasy points since Week 2 and it required him to accumulate a 7/109/1 line on eight targets against Baltimore (30th in aFPA against TEs) to get there. In his first two games of 2021, Kelce caught 13-of-15 passes (86.7%) thrown his way. In Week 3-7, Kelce has caught 32-of-50 (64.0%) balls meant for him. Patrick Mahomes has been under duress as the Chiefs' offensive line has struggled to gel halfway through the season. The Giants are allowing 12.2 full-point PPR points to tight ends per game, which is middle-of-the-road. Kelce is the best tight end the Giants will have faced to this point with Dalton Schultz, Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant the only tight ends to top 10.0 fantasy points.
Gerald Everett Over 6.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 6.1
I would feel better about this if the Jacksonville Jaguars defense was not bad against every offensive position, but I have been big on Gerald Everett in Seattle this season. It does not change as much with Geno Smith under center. Smith has a yards per attempt over seven since taking over for Russell Wilson. Everett only has 12% of the market target share and 4.2% of the air yards since Smith took over in Week 6, but both are good for fourth on the team. His 4.4 fantasy points per game is second among Seahawks pass-catchers over that time. The Jaguars are going to have success against the Seahawks' defense and Everett is the type of target that can get first downs on shorter distances. Not for nothing, Everett’s lone red-zone target resulted in a touchdown.
Derrick Henry Over 103.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 112.2
Week 7 was the first time Derrick Henry did not top 113 rushing yards since Week 1. Funny enough, Henry’s 113-yard performance was against the Colts. The Colts' run defense has improved (9th in aFPA), but Henry has 103+ rushing yards in two of three games against run defenses in the top 10 of aFPA. For what it is worth, Henry has averaged 108 rushing yards per game in his last two games in Indianapolis.
Justin Fields Over 30.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 42.3
Justin Fields has topped 30 rushing yards in two of his five starts. Both times came over the past two weeks. That is a positive trend. With some rational coaching from Bears head coach Matt Nagy (who am I kidding? Nagy? A rational thinker?), Fields will have designed runs set up against the 49ers. San Francisco has limited QB rushing yards, but if the Bears decide to give Fields a handful of attempts meant for him, the over should hit. The only QB the 49ers have faced with numerous set running plays is Jalen Hurts. Much like Hurts against San Fran, Fields will probably be running for his life.
Jared Goff Under 265.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 243.7
Jared Goff has topped 265 passing yards three times this season, and only once at home (Week 1). The two times he topped that mark on the road were in catch-up/negative game scripts later in games. The Philadelphia Eagles represent another top-10 defense against quarterbacks, according to aFPA, but with their own offensive struggles are less likely to pull away. The Lions are 3.5-point home underdogs and should be able to run the ball more than normal in a competitive game.
Khalil Herbert Over 12.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 21.6
Khalil Herbert has overtaken No. 1 RB duties in Chicago and he has topped 12 receiving yards in each of the past two games, averaging 24 yards per contest. Justin Fields has had to rely on the running game and running backs to alleviate some of the pressure on him. Herbert has met and exceeded what has been expected of him with David Montgomery out. Herbert’s play so far in 2021 has made Damien Williams and Tarik Cohen irrelevant when the backfield is at full strength.
Mo-Alie Cox Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 36.4
It took a few years but Mo-Alie Cox time is here! His yardage production is fine but the fact the Colts have realized his importance in their offense after playing tight end roulette is encouraging. Cox has at least 25 yards in four straight games and has at least three targets in each of those contests. The Titans are top-10 in aFPA against tight ends, but have allowed three tight ends to top Cox’s prop yardage and allowed a combined 24 yards to Colts tight ends in Week 3. The Colts' passing offense has changed since that game, which is beneficial to Cox.