Top 5 Matchups for Week 7
Schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. As the season marches on, the data will change and once we hit Week 12, the numbers shown will be based on a rolling 10-week data set.
Each week until the end of the fantasy football season I will be looking at five matchups to target or avoid based on updated aFPA data.
Atlanta Falcons Offense @ Miami Dolphins
There is a lot to like about Atlanta’s Week 7 matchup on the road. They are coming off a bye week, Miami played overseas Week 6, and Miami’s defense is capital ‘B’ Bad. The Dolphins defense ranks 21st or worse against opposing quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and kickers. Overall, only two teams allow more schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing offenses. The Falcons will get back Calvin Ridley (personal), and Russell Gage (ankle) returned to practice on October 18th.
Zach Ertz vs. Houston Texans
Ertz’s welcoming present to the desert is a matchup against the 31st-ranked defense against tight ends. Week 6 showed that the Arizona Cardinals had no faith in any one tight end on their roster, with Darrell Daniels and Demetrius Harris doing as much on offense and you and I. Ertz is not fleet of foot or one of Kyler Murray’s best passing options, but it is clear he will be integral weekly (18 catches in 6 games) and gets a boost in his first game with his new club.
D’Ernest Johnson vs. the Denver Broncos
Nick Chubb (calf) and Kareem Hunt (calf, IR) are out for Thursday Night Football, meaning D’Ernest Johnson is getting his first career start. On a short week.
The Denver Broncos are ninth in aFPA against opposing running backs. The Browns could be without multiple starting offensive linemen and Baker Mayfield’s torn left labrum is hampering his play. Bye weeks are going to cause fantasy players to do wild and regrettable things. Short of Johnson being your only running back this week, avoid him and the rest of the backfield, especially in PPR formats.
Derek Carr vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I'm flipping the script with this pick. The Eagles rank third against quarterbacks in aFPA. Carr has faced five defenses in the top 10 of aFPA against QBs and this is his passing yards and fantasy total for each matchup:
- Week 1 vs Ravens – 435 yards, 24.0 fantasy points
- Week 4 at Chargers – 196 yards, 14.4 fantasy points
- Week 5 vs Bears – 206 yards, 7.2 fantasy points
- Week 6 at Broncos – 341 yards, 21.5 fantasy points
This does not include Carr’s Week 2 blow-up at Pittsburgh, the 11th-ranked defense against QBs.
It is okay to start Carr this week as the offense has succeeded the majority of the time against good defenses. Very few, if any quarterback streaming options would be better than Carr.
Bengals Receivers @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens defense just eviscerated the Chargers and get an AFC North matchup against one of the better-receiving groups in football. The issue for the Bengals wideouts is the Ravens are top seven against opposing quarterbacks and receivers. The Chargers’ top three receiving options – Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler – combined for 11 catches and 125 yards and zero scores. Week 7 should be Joe Mixon and C.J. Uzomah week, as the Ravens are 19th and 23rd against running backs and tight ends, respectively.
