Week 17 PrizePicks Props
Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost. More information on rules can be found here.
Do not forget to check out the 4for4 PrizePicks Tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Week 16 Record: 4-3
Season Record: 69-47
Nice. This is the last week for this article. A sincere thanks to you the reader and 4for4 for allowing me to do this piece each week.
Week 17 Prop Picks
Ryan Tannehill Over 200.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 229.8 Passing Yards
In short, Miami is the best run defense in terms of fantasy production. That means Ryan Tannehill will have to throw the ball to keep the game close. A lot with this pick hinges on the health of A.J. Brown (calf) and Julio Jones (COVID-19 protocols). Brown is expected to play and his addition to the injury report is cautionary, while Jones was placed in protocols this past Monday. Over the past month, the Dolphins have not allowed a 200-yard passer. That is amazing until you consider the quarterbacks—Cam Newton, P.J. Walker, Zach Wilson, Mike Glennon and Ian Book.
Marvin Jones Jr. Under 45.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 40.0 Receiving Yards
Marvin Jones Jr. has topped 46 receiving yards seven times this season, but only thrice since Jacksonville’s Week 7 bye. The Jaguars travel to New England in Week 17, to face a Patriots defense that has allowed 98.67 receiving yards to wideouts per game over the past 10 weeks. Four receivers have topped 46 yards over that time span, and three of them have quarterbacks considered elite (Josh Allen, Justin Herbert) or have a catalog of success (Matt Ryan). Trevor Lawrence has neither trait and the Patriots pass rush is going to be in his face for the majority of the game.
Tyreek Hill Over 71.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 76.6 Receiving Yards
It was clear to see that Tyreek Hill was playing at less than 100% because of COVID-19 last week. With another week to recover and the top seed in the AFC still up for grabs, the Chiefs will be looking to score against a Bengals offense hitting its stride. Hill has at least 72 receiving yards in eight games this season, including four of his past six.
David Montgomery Over 67.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 75.0 Rushing Yards
Defenses are targeting David Montgomery because they know he is their offense. What works in his favor this week is that the New York Giants are one of the worst all-around teams in football, making the Bears the favorite. Regardless of the quarterback situation, Montgomery will be asked to open the passing game with his bruising running style. Montgomery has only topped this number three times, but in a game that should be ugly and cold, a 25-carry, 80-yard performance is a possibility.
Devin Singletary Over 50.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 65.7 Rushing Yards
Devin Singletary has topped 51 rushing yards in two of the past three weeks and is the lead back for Buffalo (right now). The Bills are heavy home favorites against the Falcons, and much like the Bears, can rely on their running game to salt away their game against an inferior opponent.
Jalen Hurts Under 41.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 45.7 Rushing Yards
I'm bucking the projections here for a few reasons. First, Washington will not have their top running back because of COVID-19. Second, the Eagles' defense is playing elite football. Third, Jalen Hurts is still dealing with an ankle injury. In two games since returning from his ankle issue, Hurts has 45 rushing yards combined. The Football Team is getting healthy but their ability to allow for big games to opposing offenses is enough to keep Hurts from taking off more than needed.
Dallas Goedert Over 46.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 60.2 Receiving Yards
I am sure Washington's defense will keep a closer eye on Dallas Goedert after his 125-yard outburst against them in Week 15, but the defense is still in trouble against the talented tight end. Goedert has two 100-yard receiving games in his past three contests. Hurts’s main target has been Goedert of late (team-leading 13 targets the last two weeks) and another good week is more than likely.