Yahoo! Single-Game DFS Breakdown: Rams at 49ers

Nov 15, 2021
Yahoo! Single-Game DFS Breakdown: Rams at 49ers

The best coast is on display Monday night as the Los Angeles Rams travel north to Santa Clara to take on the San Francisco 49ers.

It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players that can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players that could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.

Vegas Total and Spread

Los Angeles is a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 50.5 points. The Rams have an implied team total of 27 points, while the 49ers have an implied team total of 23.5 points.

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

The San Francisco 49ers have won four straight against the Rams but have yet to face them with a league-average quarterback. Matthew Stafford ($34) and Cooper Kupp ($37) are leading the charge for one of the most potent pass offenses in the NFL. The duo combines for 43.8 fantasy points per game in half-point PPR formats (Yahoo!’s scoring settings). Kupp is the dominant option in the Rams offense with 32.4% of the target share and 33.6% of the team’s air yards through 10 weeks. Expect a hefty workload for Kupp with Robert Woods out for the season and Odell Beckham Jr. just joining the team. OBJ is not an option in Yahoo!’s offering tonight.

Darrell Henderson ($25) has the second-best matchup using schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) behind Stafford and should see another strong workload Week 10. Henderson has had at least 15 total touches in each game this season, including in a negative game script Week 9 against Tennessee.

The 49ers passing attack has been efficient if unspectacular. Deebo Samuel ($28) is averaging 110 receiving yards per game and has a target floor of eight. Jimmy Garoppolo ($21) will be asked (forced) to spread the wealth Monday night against a Rams defense ($16) boasting three top-40 cornerbacks according to Pro Football Focus. George Kittle’s ($24) return may be the most important aspect of the 49ers offense not named Samuel. Since Sean McVay took over the Rams in 2017, Kittle has four 100-yard games and four touchdowns in seven games against L.A. He is averaging 92.3 receiving yards per game against the Rams. The easiest matchup in the passing game belongs to Kittle and the 49ers tight ends (Rams rank 27th in aFPA against tight ends).

The best way to attack the Rams and keep this game close is on the ground. Elijah Mitchell ($19) and Jeff Wilson Jr. ($14) are the lead backs with JaMycal Hasty (ankle) out Monday night. San Francisco is not known for their accelerated pace of play and have to win the game on the ground. Mitchell has played nearly 70% of snaps since Week 5 and is producing despite having one of the lower high-value touch averages over that time. Credit to the rookie for showing out in one of the more unpredictable backfields in the NFL.

Close, low-scoring game

Close, high-scoring game

Blowout for home team

Blowout for road team

Cheap/Unique Stacking Option

Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate.

Van Jefferson ($15) and Jeff Wilson Jr. ($14)

This is a different RB/pass catcher correlation than the more popular Mitchell/Kupp or Henderson/Samuel duos that could hit and save salary. Jefferson has played 77.9% of snaps and at least 83.6% of snaps in each of the past three weeks. Jefferson is also fourth in points per snap on the Rams (fifth when Woods was healthy).

Wilson was active last week but did not see the field and should be an afterthought for a chunk of DFS players. Hasty’s injury will keep him out and give Wilson a chance to be part of the Thunder/Lightning attack for the 49ers backfield.

Low-Priced Volatile Plays

Sony Michel ($12)

Michel has at least seven carries in five of eight games in 2021 despite averaging 27.9% of snaps per game. That comes out to an average of nine touches on 18.7 snaps per game. When Michel is on the field, he will get the ball approximately half the time.

Ben Skowronek ($10)

The rookie is expected to start in place of Robert Woods and was considered one of the elite blocking receivers in the 2021 NFL Draft. Skowronek could trip into a couple catches like he did two weeks ago (3-30-0).

Kyle Juszczyk ($10)

The dependable fullback has at least two targets in six of seven games but only has one game with multiple carries. Juszczyk has four red zone touches (two receiving) and his only touchdown came via the pass inside the 20.

Superstar Picks

Cooper Kupp ($37)

The obvious choice. Kupp has one game without double-digit targets.

Darrell Henderson ($25)

After a down game in Week 9, Henderson should see closer to 20 carries and a handful of targets through the air. The 49ers have allowed an average of 1.25 total touchdowns to running backs per game this season, including five in the past three games.

George Kittle ($24)

Kittle the perfect mix of finesse and power and has zero issue tenderizing defenses with and without the ball. Kyle Shanahan wasted zero time getting Kittle his full complement of work after one month off last week and will be integral in San Francisco’s offense.

Elijah Mitchell ($19)

The Rams defense may be better in real football than fantasy and Mitchell has the opportunity to limit their shots on Jimmy G with a strong performance. 49ers' right tackle Mike McGlinchey is out for the year, leaving an open point of attack for the Rams’ pass rush. Like Henderson, Mitchell’s Week 9 was not memorable but enough to keep him in the Superstar conversation with the idea that the 49ers control the clock.

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