Connor Allen's Season-Long Player Prop Bets

Sportsbooks have started to release season-long player props and they are ripe for the picking. Both Ryan Noonan and Sam Hoppen have already written up their favorite bets and I’m here to bring you more of the same. Considering how soft the market is, it isn’t all that impressive to say, but, nonetheless, I have been profitable for four consecutive years in season-long props I’ve written up. It’s always a nice bonus to have at the end of the year. All of this is made even easier by leveraging John Paulsen’s projections. They have been some of the best in the business over the past decade and make our lives simpler in terms of pinpointing strong bets to make. I'll continue to add to this column throughout the offseason as more props are released.

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More Futures: 4 from Ryan Noonan | 3 from Sam Hoppen

DraftKings Player Prop Bet

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Jalen Hurts Over 3,700.5 Passing Yards (-106)

4for4 Projection: 4,513.6 Passing Yards

I think we are all underrating Jalen Hurts’s ability to pass the ball. After a few lackluster years at Alabama, he showed plenty of promise in his final collegiate season at Oklahoma, averaging 11.3 yards per attempt and a 69.7% completion rate. As a rookie, Hurts only started and completed three games but flashed plenty of upside as a dual-threat playmaker in those contests. In those three starts, he posted passing totals of 167, 338 and 342 passing yards. That was all with a nonexistent receiving corps and an offensive line that saw 4-of-5 starters miss significant time. The Eagles went on to draft WR DeVonta Smith in the first round and C Landon Dickerson in the second. With all of their offensive line returning and an above-average group of pass-catchers, it’s easy to imagine Hurts at least being a competent passer.

With a win total of just 6.5, the Eagles figure to be in neutral or negative game script more often than positive game script. This sets up well for Hurts to be throwing throughout games rather than grinding the clock out and running the ball. Based on the total of 3,700 passing yards, in a 17-game season that equates to 217 passing yards per game. We have him projected for nearly 50 more yards per game at 265.

Risk: 1.06 units to win 1 unit on DraftKings.

Emmanuel Sanders Over 600.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

4for4 Projection: 775 Receiving Yards

This is currently one of the top plays in our new player prop tool. Our projection has Sanders at 775 receiving yards while his prop is lined 175 yards lower. The Bills lost John Brown and added Sanders this offseason. They may not be a 1-to-1 swap but the Bills led the league in four wide receiver sets last season, meaning we will likely see Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Sanders and Gabriel Davis all on the field together a good bit this year. Beat reporters have mentioned they expect Sanders to slide into Brown’s role while Davis and Beasley will play similar roles as they did last year. In the seven games Brown played more than 50% of the snaps in last year he recorded 386 receiving yards (55 yards per game). In a 17-game season, Sanders needs to average just 35 yards per game in order to accrue more than 600.5 receiving yards. I think he will end up with closer to 800 receiving yards by the end of the season.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

Austin Ekeler Under 6 Rushing Touchdowns (-130)

4for4 projection: 2.3 Touchdowns

I’m not entirely sure how this line was set. In the last four seasons Ekeler has 1, 3, 3 and 2 rushing touchdowns. They still have Josh Kelley and Justin Jackson on the roster and added RB Larry Rountree from Mizzouri, who scored 40 touchdowns in his collegiate career. He, at the very minimum, will split goal-line carries with Kelley, Jackson and Rountree. If this was a combined rushing and receiving prop it would make a little more sense but right now I don’t think it’s even close to the proper line of O/U 3.5. We have him projected for 2.3 rushing touchdowns this season.

Risk: 1.3 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

Travis Etienne Under 650.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

4for4 Projection: 477.9 Rushing Yards

Everything the Jaguars are telling us about Travis Etienne points towards him being in an Alvin Kamara-lite role with Urban Meyer at the helm. Etienne opened rookie camp working with the wide receivers. He specifically worked on becoming a better pass-catcher as a senior at Clemson. He racked up 85 receptions in his final two collegiate seasons, averaging 11.7 and 12.3 yards per reception, and cemented his pass-catching prowess. The Jaguars still have rookie breakout James Robinson who figures to take a good chunk of the early-down work while Etienne is running routes. We have Etienne projected for 477.9 rushing yards, well below his line of 650.5.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit at DraftKings.

PointsBet Player Prop Bets

Deebo Samuel Under 850.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

4for4 Projection: 723 Receiving Yards

Deebo Samuel has yet to play a full season in two years and now faces a number of factors that could hinder his production. The 49ers are pretty close to a run-first team, ranking seventh in one-score-game run rate (48%) last year. Now they may roll out Trey Lance, a quarterback much more capable of scrambling than statuesque Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers have the easiest strength of schedule this year, according to opposing win totals and a 10.5-win total themselves, according to sportsbooks. All of this points to a lot of positive games script, and more running. Beyond their playstyle, the 49ers' target competition is no cakewalk. Samuel has to compete with elite TE George Kittle and breakout WR Brandon Aiyuk for targets. Samuel is a good player who may see a lot of work on handoffs and short passes but gaudy yardage may be tough to come by when considering the circumstances.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit on PointsBet.

Sam Darnold Over 21 Passing Touchdowns (+100)

4for4 Projection: 23 Passing Touchdowns

I get it, this is a little gross. Betting an over on Sam Darnold just intuitively feels wrong after how bad he has been to date in his career. That being said, he is in a much better situation and set up to revitalize his career. He goes from Adam Gase, a bad offensive line, and bottom-tier receiving corps in New York to essentially the opposite in Carolina.

Christian McCaffrey returns for the Panthers as one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league. They also retained D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, and added WR Terrace Marshall Jr. in the draft. The LSU rookie should be a legitimate weapon when healthy. What’s great about this bet is that Sam Darnold doesn’t have to be great, he just has to be average. Averaging 1.23 touchdowns per game over the course of a 17-game season is minimal. The Panthers clearly have a good bit of faith in Darnold as well, refusing to trade up for a quarterback or even draft Justin Fields when he fell to them at the No. 8 overall pick. This reduces the chance of an in-season benching even if things don’t get off to a hot start. I’m buying the dip on Darnold and putting some coin on the over here.

Risk: 1 unit to win 1 unit on PointsBet.

Bet MGM Player Prop Bets

Mike Davis Over 777.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

4for4 Projection: 1,000 Rushing Yards

This line is simply too low for a player with next to no competition. The Falcons had all offseason to add another veteran or draft a high-profile rookie. Instead, they added two undrafted free agents in Javian Hawkins and Caleb Huntley. Their running back room consists of Mike Davis, Hawkins, Huntley, and Quadree Ollison. I don’t think any of them are a threat to take any early-down work away from Davis, who is by far the most established runner in the offense, as he flashed plenty of upside in Carolina. We have Davis projected for 1,000 rushing yards.

Risk: 1.11 units to win 1 unit.

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