Ryan Noonan: 4 Player Prop Futures I'm Betting

We spend a lot of time on Move The Line focusing on the why. We're looking for any hidden advantage we can find in a given matchup, an edge that'll strengthen a lean we have about that particular game. Whether it's a side or total, it's difficult to squeeze an edge out in the marketplace during the regular season, and it becomes increasingly difficult to do so as kickoff approaches. Getting down on a play as early as possible is crucial.

When it comes to player props, though, we don't have to look quite as hard to find an advantage in the marketplace. Let's start with the obvious, and that's our significant advantage due to our projections. John Paulsen is simply the best in the business at what he does, and his track record is long and indisputable. Pairing Paulsen's projections with my priors on a player and/or situation lead to numerous buying opportunities in the season-long player prop marketplace, a market that's begun to emerge this week across most sportsbooks. Along with each pick, I'm going to share our site projection as well. This is to give you a point of reference on how to approach each play as the lines move this offseason. For what it's worth, all prop bets will be one-unit plays unless noted otherwise. Let's dig in.

More Futures: 3 from Sam Hoppen | Connor Allen

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DraftKings Player Prop Bets

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Falcons QB Matt Ryan Under 4,500.5 Passing Yards (-110)

4for4 Projection: 4,437 Passing Yards

I'm trying to teach my 13-year old son about compound interest. I'm teaching him how to use his money to make money versus trading hours for dollars. A tale as old as time. We also talk a lot about compound mistakes. For instance, when you do something you're not supposed to and then lie about it, you're compounding the problem. Well, that's the Atlanta Falcons.

Their mismanagement of the salary cap in recent years, along with the questionable allocation of draft resources to fit perceived needs instead of staying pliable to the draft board, and how it unfolds, has left a gaping hole in the Falcons' roster. With salary cap hell staring them down, the Falcons decided to use their first-round draft pick in 2020 on cornerback A.J. Terrell because the 2019 Falcons ran out one of the league's worse secondary units. It was clear they were married to the idea of a round one cornerback regardless of how the draft board shook out because they let CeeDee Lamb pass them by, who was happily scooped up by the wide receiver-rich Dallas Cowboys with the next selection.

The Julio Jones trade, forced on them due to the mismanaged cap, wouldn't have nearly the impact it does today if the Falcons had Lamb to backfill him. Instead, Matt Ryan is left with the likes of Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus at wide receiver, alongside all-world Calvin Ridley and potential unicorn Kyle Pitts. We had a seven-game sample of Matt Ryan without Julio last season, and while Ridley dominated the opportunities that came his way, we saw a significantly lower ceiling for Matt Ryan. View the splits below, courtesy of our Market Shares Splits App:

The addition of Pitts is noteworthy, but it's unlikely to bridge the gap on the outside left by Jones's departure. I expect Arthur Smith's offense to provide Matt Ryan the volume needed to get close to 4,500 yards, but the efficiency and big-play ability on the roster is severely lacking.

Bet: Risk 1.1 units at DraftKings to win 1 unit.

BetMGM Player Prop Bet

Steelers RB Najee Harris Over 949.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

4for4 Projection: 1,022 Rushing Yards

Yes, the Steelers' offensive line is a problem. They were 31st in PFF's run-blocking metric last season, dead-last in Football Outsiders' adjusted-line yards metric, and our Justin Edwards ranks them as the sixth-worst unit heading into the 2021 season. Instead of addressing the line early in April's draft, the Steelers opted for a three-down running back who will rarely come off the field in Najee Harris.

Despite abandoning the run at times last year, Pittsburgh totaled 1,351 yards on the ground with 373 carries. That's 22 carries and 96 fewer yards than the 2019 club compiled. For all the offensive line issues in Pittsburgh, the running back room has also left a lot to be desired. An oft-injured James Conner was the only back on the roster to top 4.0 yards per carry over the past two seasons, with sprinklings of Benny Snell Jr. Jaylen Samuels and Anthony McFarland leaving a lot to be desired. With Conner now in Arizona, Harris's path to bell-cow status is as good as any back in the league. If the Steelers can only muster 2020's output of 1,351 yards on the ground this season, Harris would need a 70% carry share to top his prop. Not only do we get an extra game to work with this season, I believe the Steelers will look to ease the load on quarterback Ben Roethlisberger when they can. Harris is more than equipped to handle the workload.

Bet: Risk 1.1 units on BetMGM to win 1 unit.

Rams QB Matthew Stafford Player Props

Over 4,700.5 Passing Yards (+105)

4for4 Projection: 5,326.5 Passing Yards

Over 26 Passing Touchdowns (-133)

4for4 Projection: 32.5 Passing Touchdowns

I'm buying into all the Matthew Stafford/Sean McVay lovefest narratives coming out of Los Angeles, and so are our projections. Stafford took a beating at times in Detroit, but he's played in all 16 games nine times in the past 10 seasons, so durability is not a concern off the top.

Head coach Sean McVay has been publicly giddy in his early assessment of Matthew Stafford. While some see the praise of Stafford as a heavy-handed slight to former starter Jared Goff...no, just kidding, that's exactly what it is. And I get it.

Stafford and Goff couldn't be more different. Their styles diametrically oppose each other, and there's little, if anything, that Goff does better than Stafford. Stafford's 9.4 average depth of target far exceeds the McVay-managed 6.7 yards we saw from Jared Goff last season. Despite his willingness to take more shots down the field and a big-time throw rate (courtesy of PFF), more than twice that of Goff's, Stafford posted a lower rate of turnover-worthy throws in 2020 as well. Simply put, Stafford has outperformed Goff by a significant margin with a far inferior supporting cast.

Despite it being a perceived strength, the Rams added to their arsenal of pass-catchers in the off-season with the addition of big-play speedsters DeSean Jackson and Tutu Atwell. I also anticipate more up-tempo from the Rams this season, something McVay showed a willingness to do in prior years, and something Stafford loved to do in Detroit. Tempo brings the volume that's needed to push over on both his yardage and touchdown numbers, something our projections believe he can comfortably do.

Bet: Risk 1 unit at DraftKings to win 1.05 units (passing yards).

Bet: Risk 1.33 unit at PointsBet to win 1 unit (passing touchdowns).

Throughout the offseason, I'll continue to add props that I find value in. You can find me on Twitter, @RyNoonan.