Yahoo! Week 11 $200K Baller and Cash Game Strategy

Nov 20, 2020
Yahoo! Week 11 $200K Baller and Cash Game Strategy

Whether you are playing in the biggest tournament of the week on Yahoo or prefer to play in smaller GPPs, there are some general GPP strategies that you can implement in any size tournament. These concepts include stacking, finding pivots off of popular players, and targeting players that won’t be on many rosters. While it’s important to implement these into your lineup-building approach, the foundation of any tournament lineup is a solid core, usually players that you would use in cash games.

Stacks to Target

QB Jameis Winston, Saints ($30)

WR Michael Thomas, Saints ($29)

WR Emmanuel Sanders, Saints ($20)

WR Julio Jones, Falcons ($28)

UPDATE: Taysom Hill ($24) has been announced as the Saints starter for Week 11. While Hill doesn't offer the deep-ball upside that Winston does, it's worth noting that the projected total in this game has only dropped by 0.5 points. Hill projects as a top-two value and while he may not be able to sustain to GPP-worthy pass-catchers, this game is still worth considering for smaller stacks.

According to 4for4’s Stack Value Report, no 4-man stack on the main slate has a higher ceiling than the one listed above. No one would argue that the Saints offense is better without Drew Brees but you could make the argument that it has more DFS upside with Jameis Winston under center. Per SportsInfoSolutions, no team has attempted fewer passes 20+ yards downfield than the Saints this season but Winston is known for his willingness to take shots.

When active, Michael Thomas has accounted for nearly 35% of the Saints’ air yards and he saw his target share spike to 30% last week. With Thomas playing over 70% of the snaps for the first time since Week 1, Emmanuel Sanders was the only New Orleans wide receiver to play over half of the snaps. In what should be the highest-scoring game of the slate, Winston can support a double stack, a trio that should be in a relatively low number of lineups.

Julio Jones will be the most popular wide receiver of the week if Calvin Ridley is out, but that will be offset with the Saints trio. If Ridley is active, it only helps this stack's contrarian nature as Jones will see a depressed rostered percentage.

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers ($32)

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers ($24)

WR Diontae Johnson, Steelers ($18)

Pittsburgh has the second-highest implied total on the slate (28.25) and while they may be the most popular offense on sites without Sunday Night Football on the main slate, the Chiefs will likely drive down the rostered rate of Steelers stacks on Yahoo.

Over the last six weeks, only two offenses have thrown at a higher rate in neutral game script, and Roethlisberger has been one of the most efficient passers, posting the sixth-highest touchdown rate in the league. The issue with stacking the Steelers is that they have a diluted target share among their top three pass-catchers. Anyone playing 100+ lineups can simply mix and match Pittsburgh’s wideouts with Ben but those playing low volume have to plant their flag.

In uncertain scenarios where matchups don’t necessarily dictate volume, it’s usually best to go with the least popular option and Chase Claypool should be the Steelers wide receiver with the highest rostered rate. In this case, the trio listed above just happens to have one of the highest projected ceilings of the week.

Eric Ebron and James Conner are viable contrarian options for those that want an especially unique lineup.

Building a game stack with D.J. Chark is certainly a reasonable strategy. With Jake Luton under center, Chark has seen 29% of targets and 45% of air yards. Against this Steelers pass rush, though, the floor for the Jaguars offense is frighteningly low and a full game stack is certainly not a must.

Contrarian Plays to Target

RB Salvon Ahmed, Dolphins ($17)

Salvon Ahmed was given the opportunity to show what he could do with starters snaps last week and the Miami coaching staff trusted him enough to give him 22 touches, which he turned into 90 total yards and a score. The Dolphins are favored against a Broncos defense that just surrendered over 200 total yards and four scores to Las Vegas running backs.

Matt Breida is set to return but Ahmed showed that he can handle a full workload and Breida’s presence will only keep Ahmed’s rostered rate in check.

WR Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs ($12)

Kansas City is projected for a Week 11 high of 31.75 points on Sunday night, so their offense will be one of the most popular in DFS tournaments. With Mecole Hardman on the COVID list and Sammy Watkins popping up on the injury list Thursday for calf and hamstring issues, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce could see sky-high rostered percentages.

That makes Robinson the ideal contrarian candidate. He is the only Chiefs receiver besides Hill to play over 60% of the snaps this season and that snap rate spiked to 81% in Kansas City’s last game.

TE Logan Thomas, Washington ($18)

With Alex Smith under center for the majority of Week 9 and the starter in Week 10, Washington has thrown at the third-highest rate in neutral game script over the last two weeks. Smith has heavily targeted his running backs but those looks should be redistributed this week against a Bengals defense that is above average at covering running backs but ranks near the bottom of the league against wide receivers and tight ends. Terry McLaurin should be one of the more popular wide receivers in DFS, making Thomas a great leverage play in what could be a sneaky high-scoring offense this week.

Cash Game Strategy

The backbone of my cash game approach is 4for4’s proprietary value metric, which goes beyond simple point per dollar projections. That value calculation extends to a player’s odds of hitting cash game value based on their implied volatility according to their floor, median and ceiling projections.

The biggest decision point in cash games this week is whether or not to pay up for Dalvin Cook, the highest-floor player in the league. There is enough value across all positions to jam in Cook.

Cash Game Plays

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