NFL Week 7 Betting Picks & Preview

Oct 18, 2019
NFL Week 7 Betting Picks & Preview

NFL Week 6 Recap: I had my three-week winning streak snapped with a 1-2 Sunday last week. The Chiefs blew an early lead to lose outright as a 4-point home favorite versus the Texans and the pitiful Titans didn’t muster a single point in a loss to the Broncos as a 2-point underdog. The 49ers (+3 vs. Rams) were my only victory.

Let’s get back on track in Week 7…

453 Houston Texans at 454 Indianapolis Colts

  • Spread: Texans +1
  • O/U: 47
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 20

Linebacker Darius Leonard, receiver T.Y. Hilton and running back Marlon Mack all appear to be healthy heading into Sunday, but the Colts are still banged-up defensively. Corners Kenny Moore (knee) and Pierre Desir (hamstring) did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday and defensive end Justin Houston was also a no-go on Thursday. Considering how unstoppable Houston’s offense looked versus Atlanta and Kansas City the past two weeks, Indianapolis’ pass defense could be in store for a long day trying to defend Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller.

I don’t like this matchup for the Colts’ run defense either. Indy has struggled versus opponents’ rushing attacks this season and while the duo of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson Jr. don’t keep many defensive coordinators up at night, the pair is flying under the radar. Watson’s ability to pick up yards with his legs gives Houston’s running game an added dimension as well.

This matchup has been dominated by the road teams in recent history. The road squad took all three meetings last season, which included the Colts’ 21-7 win at Houston in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. That’s just a cherry on top, however. It’s the matchup that I love for the Texans, specifically their offense versus the Colts’ banged-up defense.

NFL Week 7 Selection: Houston Texans +1

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451 Arizona Cardinals at 452 New York Giants

  • Spread: Cardinals +3
  • O/U: 50.5
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 20

The Giants opened as a 5-point favorite over the Cardinals, but the line has been bet down to 3 at most sportsbooks. I’m assuming that’s because sharps questioned whether the Giants were clearly the better team in this matchup and so do I.

Arizona’s defense is terrible, ranking 30th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, but it’s not as if New York is much better (23rd). Plus, eight-time Pro Bowler Patrick Peterson has been reinstated from his six-game suspension and will make his return Sunday after serving a PED ban. He’ll supplant either Tremaine Brock or Byron Murphy and provide an immediate upgrade to one of the worst defensive backfields in the league.

Speaking of which, Arizona’s secondary has surrendered 281.2 passing yards per game this season, which is the third-worst mark in the league. Tampa Bay ranks 32nd in that category while permitting 304.5 passing yards per game. Know which team ranks 31st, just ahead of the Cardinals? You guessed it: The Giants. And there is no Patrick Peterson making his return for Big Blue on Sunday.

Meanwhile, rookie Kyler Murray has improved each week and is now sustaining drives with his legs. Over the past couple weeks, we’ve seen this Kliff Kingsbury offense get into a rhythm and now this team is playing with some confidence.

Sure, the Cards will likely have to deal with the return of Saquon Barkley. That said, even as good as Barkley is, he’s not enough to dissuade me from taking an underdog that could easily win outright.

NFL Week 7 Selection: Arizona Cardinals +3

Looking for more picks? Check out Sharp Angle Sports for access to Anthony's CFB selections and exclusive NFL selections from SuperContest Winner James Salinas, who is a documented 63% ATS over 320 NFL selections since 2015.

463 Los Angeles Rams at 464 Atlanta Falcons

  • Spread: Rams -3
  • O/U: 54.5
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 20

Jared Goff sucks now. The Rams can’t score without a healthy Todd Gurley. The blueprint has been laid out on how to stop Sean McVay’s offense.

All of that might be true, but none of it applies to the Rams’ matchup with the Falcons on Sunday.

Atlanta is atrocious defensively. A year ago, the Falcons could pin their issues on injuries. Deion Jones, Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen all missed significant time and yeah, that hurt. But Dan Quinn fired yet another defensive coordinator (Marquand Manuel) in the offseason and replaced him with…wait for it: Himself. The result? The Falcons have the fourth-worst defense in the NFL this season according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.

Sure, the team lost Neal (Achilles tear) again, but injuries aren’t why the Falcons’ defense has turned into rubble. Quinn’s scheme is an offensive coordinator’s dream. The Falcons stay mostly in Cover 3 and they have zero pass rush. That has allowed quarterbacks Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray and yes, even the recently benched Marcus Mariota to pick the unit apart. When Quinn does mix some man-to-man in, his corners, linebackers and safeties are getting torched (see Will Fuller).

Clearly Quinn and GM Thomas Dimitroff severely overestimated the talent they have on that side of the ball. Both might be looking for jobs soon. In the meantime, the struggling Goff has a cake matchup in what should turn into a 7-on-7 drill for the Rams this weekend inside an empty Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Cooper Kupp might catch 30 passes this weekend and I’m really not concerned with who lines up at running back for the Rams, as they’ll feast through the air.

On the other side, Matt Ryan has played very well the past three weeks but if the newly acquired Jalen Ramsey plays, then he gives the Rams a nice option when it comes to slowing down Julio Jones. I could also see Aaron Donald having a monster day, recording multiple sacks while lined up against a heinous Atlanta offensive line.

NFL Week 7 Selection: Los Angeles Rams -3

2019 NFL ATS Betting Record

  • Week 1: 1-2
  • Week 2: 1-2
  • Week 3: 3-1
  • Week 4: 3-1
  • Week 5: 2-1
  • Week 6: 1-2

Season Total: 11-9 (55%)

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