The Rundown: Week 14 Stats to Know & Cowboys vs Bears

Dec 04, 2019
The Rundown: Week 14 Stats to Know & Cowboys vs Bears

Week 13 was a make or break week for fantasy players, whether they were already starting their playoff matchups or fighting to make the playoffs itself. Several key players disappeared (I’m looking at you Tyler Lockett) or failed to live up to their ungodly 2019 standards (Christian McCaffrey). For those who made it through and are still playing for something this week, hopefully, we get the best outcomes from every player. That way, our failures are due to bad choices and not a good decision gone wrong.

Each week, I will provide a preview article with some key overall stats to watch for along with the Thursday game preview that includes start/sit ratings. Then, there will be subsequent previews later in the week with all the other games in time for the remaining fantasy decisions before kickoff. For much of this data, I will be using 4for4's Snaps, Touches, and Targets Apps as well as analyzing each team's pace and play-calling tendencies.

Ten Stats to Know for Week 14

  • 22 and you: Lamar Jackson became just the 13th player to score over 22 fantasy points in seven or more games. He is just the fourth quarterback to make that list.
  • Doing more with less: Lamar Jackson owns the record for the most games with fewer than 25 pass attempts but 20-plus fantasy points. He has seven such games this year.
  • Five Guys: Michael Thomas has 17 games in a row with five or more receptions. DeAndre Hopkins is at 15. They are two of only 15 players to do this for at least 15 games and only one (Antonio Brown) made it over 20.
  • Step Up: Since Preston Williams went out for the season in Week 9, DeVante Parker is the WR4 overall. He is averaging over 20 PPR points per game during this time.
  • Becoming elite: Greg Olsen is 35 PPR points away from his seventh season with 150 or more PPR points, which would make him only the fourth tight end to do so. Travis Kelce reached his sixth this season and Jimmy Graham is stuck on six as well.
  • Youth prevails: Josh Jacobs is the fifth youngest rookie to reach 1000 rushing yards while averaging over 80 yards per game.
  • Three down back: Christian McCaffrey and LeVeon Bell are vying to become the third and fourth running backs with three seasons of 100-plus targets. McCaffrey is a shoo-in with just four more targets needed but Bell needs 33 over the next four games.
  • Lone Ranger: James White is the only running back with double-digit receptions in the red zone. Despite this, he has only one touchdown reception.
  • Workhorse: Christian McCaffrey ranks fourth overall in snaps played (293) over the past four weeks. He is the only running back ranked in the top 20 for skill players.
  • Four of a kind: Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey have three straight games with seven or more receptions. Only Alvin Kamara, Marshall Faulk, and Steven Jackson managed four such games.

Cowboys @ Bears

Spread: Bears +3 | Total: 43

We have a pair of .500 teams who are in very different situations. The Cowboys have a tenuous hold on the division lead and should be better than their record reflects. They rank top 10 on both offense and defense so it is their inconsistencies on both sides of the ball that have held them back. The Bears have shown consistency on defense but they predictably have been anything but on offense. A good game from Mitch Trubisky on Thanksgiving is something we can all be thankful for, but expecting another effort like that against a tougher defense may be too much of a holiday miracle.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys offense matching up with the Bears defense will be one of the more intriguing team storylines in Week 14. It won’t render the key offensive players useless but the ceilings will lower a bit in this one and could even force the Cowboys to spread the ball around more than usual.

Team Trends That Matter

  • Their 49% third-down conversion rate leads the NFL.
  • No quarterback has thrown for 250 passing yards against the Cowboys since Week 6.
  • Have allowed 19 PPR points or more in three of the past four weeks to a running back.

Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know

  • QB Dak Prescott (4) - At least 45 passing attempts in three of the last four games
  • RB Ezekiel Elliott (5) - Eight straight games with 18 or more total touches
  • WR Amari Cooper (3) - 64 snaps played in Week 13 ties a season-best
  • WR Michael Gallup (3) - Five straight games with six or more targets
  • WR Randall Cobb (1) - 86% snap share in Week 13 was his high for 2019
  • TE Jason Witten (1) - The TE14 since the Cowboys Week 8 bye

Chicago Bears

This will be a rough one for the Bears offense. There are a few saving graces, however. The Cowboys are last in interceptions forced (four) and are just average against the run. That would indicate a potentially conservative pass offense and an emphasis on the run. Sounds like a game plan the Bears would love to embrace.

Team Trends That Matter

  • The last two opposing quarterbacks have thrown for multiple touchdowns. Those represent just the second and third time this season that has happened against the Bears.
  • The Bears have only allowed one receiving touchdown to a running back this season.
  • Force opponents to punt on 44.8% of their offensive possessions, the fifth-highest rate in the league.

Fantasy Rating and a Stat to Know

  • QB Mitch Trubisky (0) - Six of his 13 touchdown passes have come against the Lions defense
  • RB David Montgomery (3) - The RB18 since the Bears Week 6 bye
  • RB Tarik Cohen (3) - Four straight games with over 50% snap share
  • WR Allen Robinson (4) - 65 targets since the Bears Week 6 bye is tied for the fourth-most among all wide receivers
  • WR Anthony Miller (1) - Ranks third among wide receivers with 33 targets in the past three weeks
  • WR Javon Wims (0) - His six targets in Week 13 represent a season-high

Fantasy Rating Key

  • (5) - Elite option. Must start.
  • (4) - Strong option. Likely start.
  • (3) - Good option. Low-end starter to high-end backup.
  • (2) - Weak option. Possible flex or desperation play.
  • (1) - Bad option. Bench in nearly all cases.
  • (0) - Not an option. Injured, bench, or waivers.