Yahoo! DFS Single Game Breakdown: Bears at Packers

Dec 11, 2021

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

The Bears haven't had a good stretch of games in recent weeks. They have turned the ball over in every game since Week 6, lost six of their last seven, and their only win in that span has come against the Lions. In these six losses, they have allowed over 100 yards rushing in each game and have allowed four teams to score 29 or more points. The Packers are coming off a bye week, and in their last game, they had a big win over the Rams but did suffer two losses in their last four games.

For single-game slates, it is important to remember the game script and how your lineup becomes the optimal build off of that specific script. For example, when a team is losing by 20 points at halftime, you do not want to be rostering the running back that doesn't catch passes. You also want to keep up with the weather conditions, and a perfect example of this is last week's matchup between the Bills and Patriots. Josh Allen was able to throw the ball in those weather conditions, but Mac Jones wasn't trusted and wasn't needed to as the Patriots had enough success running the ball.

For up-to-the-minute and Sunday morning updates, be sure to join the 4for4 DFS subscription-only Discord channel.

Vegas Lines

Over/Under: 43.5

Bears Implied Total: 15.5

Packers Implied Total: 28

The Packers are heavy favorites, and onslaught stacks of Packers will be heavily deployed this weekend. The unique lineups will consist of primarily Bears players, but they would need Vegas to be wrong for that to work out. The over-under shows a very low-scoring game, and both of these teams play at a slow pace.

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

Divisional rivalries are always a little bit unique, but the Packers are playing extremely well as of late, and the Bears are having a bad stretch of games.

The Packers will be without Randall Cobb, but their running back room is healthy and Aaron Rodgers has thrown for over 290 yards in three straight games. The Packers have five wins in which they scored more than 20 points, and in those games, Rodgers has had at least three touchdowns in each game but only threw for more than 260 yards in one. Rodgers is averaging 7.7 yards per attempt, 34 attempts per game, and an average throw depth of 8.5 years. The Bears rank 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) against the QB position.

The Bears are giving up 120 yards rushing a game and 4.24 yards per carry. In the games that the Bears lost by 10 or more points, the opponent ran for over 130 yards in five of the six games. Aaron Jones returned from injury before the bye week and handled 10 carries to A.J. Dillon's 20, but I expect them to be in a similar time split that we saw before Jones was injured. This will ultimately come down to touchdowns for the backfield, which is a very difficult statistic to predict.

As big underdogs, the Bears should throw more than usual, but both of these teams play at a slow pace, ranking in the league's bottom half in plays per game. Fields is averaging 6.9 yards per attempt this season, with a 2% touchdown rate and a 4% interception rate. The return of Allen Robinson will make a difference, with targets more spread out than they have been in recent weeks. In the games that Fields started and Robinson played, not a single player got over the 10-target mark, and there were only two performances of six or more receptions. With a big lead, the Packers will play Cover 4 and 3. Darnell Mooney is the only player with over 10 targets against a Cover 4 and is getting targeted at a 30% rate. However, against a Cover 3, Cole Kmet leads the team with a 22% rate. In Marquise Goodwins's absence, Jakeem Grant and Damiere Byrd both ran over 70% of the snaps, but with the return of Robinson, they will both see a significant decrease in snaps.

David Montgomery is the only Bears running back to have any interest in because he is the only one to have over 15 touches in every game since returning from injury. Fields will take carries away from Montgomery, but he still gets enough usage to be under consideration in this slate. No running back has run for over 100 yards this year against the Packers, but Khalil Herbert was the closest in Week 6 with 97 yards. With the current spread for the Bears offense, it will come down to a touchdown for the running backs in Chicago to find their way in the winning lineup.

Here's a brief rundown of which players would likely benefit the most from various game flow scenarios.

Close, low-scoring game

Close, high-scoring game

Blowout for the home team

Blowout for the road team

Cheap/Unique Stacking Option

Superstar Marques Valdes-Scantling, Packers $24 and Aaron Rodgers, Packers $31

The Chicago Bears have given up nine passing touchdowns on 20+ yard throws, and earlier in the year, Valdes-Scantling did not play against this Chicago defense. Valdes-Scantling has had nine and 10 targets in the past two games and is the only Packers pass-catcher besides Adams with a 100-yard game this season. There are a few scenarios in which Valdes-Scantling out-scores Aaron Rodgers, especially if the Packers get up early on in the game from one long touchdown to him, and Rodgers doesn't receive the needed volume to blow up

Low-Priced Volatile Plays

Justin Fields, Bears $24

Fields will be playing from behind and possesses the rushing upside to be in winning lineups. However, the low implied total makes him a tough player to get behind, and he will need to be a part of every Bears touchdown in some way.

David Montgomery, Bears $21

The Bears had Khalil Herbert find running lanes in their first matchup with the Packers, and Montgomery has had a high workload in recent weeks. Fields being the starter will take away some of his carries, but the workload will be enough to pay off the $21 salary.

Darnell Mooney, Bears $18

Mooney has been the best wide receiver for the Bears, and the Packers in recent weeks have allowed two 50+ yard touchdowns through the air. I don't believe the volume will be there for him to pay off the Superstar spot, but he can be the one Bears player to hit.

Packers Defense, $18

Justin Fields was sacked four times in their first matchup and threw an interception. The Bears have the second-highest sack percentage of the year, and the Packers are getting pressure at a 40% rate. The Bears have also turned the ball over in 10 out of 12 games, and the Packers have forced two or more turnovers in eight of 12 games.

Allen Robinson, Bears $13

Robinson is returning from a hamstring injury and will force targets to be spread out. As a result, I am not playing multiple Bears pass catchers, and I lean Mooney over Robinson.

Cole Kmet, Bears $13

Kmet has been running a route on over 80% of dropbacks, and in this negative game script, he can pay off his salary. If Packers linebacker De'Vondre Campbell is out, I prefer Kmet over the other two pass catchers for the Bears.

Josiah Deguara, Packers $10

Deguara is a unique player to play in this slate and only a large-field, touchdown-dependent consideration.

Superstar Plays

Davante Adams, Packers $35

Valdes-Scantling is going to free things up for Adams to see higher volume than he did the first time around, and of the wide receivers that saw 10+ targets against the Bears, all of them scored a touchdown, two of them had over 100 yards, and one of them scored three touchdowns.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers $31

In Rodgers builds, I will be focusing on at least two players of Adams, Jones, Valdes-Scantling, or Deguara. Rodgers will need at least two passing touchdowns to get there and is more than capable of doing so.

Aaron Jones, Packers $28

I believe Jones will be the lowest-rostered of this bunch and has the highest tournament-winning upside. In their first game, he had 17 touches, four receptions, 110 yards, and a touchdown. A.J. Dillon will take about 45-50% of the workload away, but Jones has had games where he gets multiple touchdowns.

A.J. Dillon, Packers $19

Dillon is now reverted back to the timeshare role with Jones, but I believe in his absence, he has earned the right to get at least ten touches in every game going forward and will be the end of the game running back that runs in between the tackles.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers $16

Valdes-Scantling is the deep threat that helps everybody else on this roster, and the Bears have given up nine touchdowns on 20+ yard throws this year. His salary will keep him low-rostered as the Superstar spot, and if he manages to get the big plays through the air, I could see him being the highest-scoring player on the slate.