Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for the The PGA Championship

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

The Truist Championship Recap:

Last week was one of our best weeks of the season. Fleetwood was the play of the week, and a Sunday 65 propelled him into the Top 5, his best finish of the 2025 season. I mentioned that Rory’s floor is creeping into Scottie territory, and last week, when Rory said he didn’t have his best stuff, he still finished tied for 7th place. Unfortunately, Bhatia blew up on Sunday with a 74, but he still had a staggering 22 birdies in the tournament, so he scored great on DraftKings despite the T46 finish. Cole, for his price, had a good tournament, but after his round 1 65, it was looking like we were going to get a ceiling outcome out of him. The POTW (Fleetwood) got the job done, and the other three had solid tournaments.

PGA Championship Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

Using promo code: JAKE10 you will get your first month $10 (regularly $29.99).

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG:TOT (Course History)
• Driving Distance (L18 months; driver heavy courses)
• SG: APP (L50 rounds; gain APP difficult/very difficult)
• Par 5 BoB%

PGA Championship DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Rory McIlroy, $12.2K, 5/1 DK, 1st in model

Key Stats:

• 1st in SG:TOT (Last 30 Rounds @ Quail Hollow)
• 7th in SG:APP (Last 50 Rounds Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
• 9th in Scrambling % (Last 50 Rounds Gain ARG Avg/Difficult/Very Difficult)
• 3rd in Driving Distance (Last 18 Months Driver Heavy)

Rory has been flat-out the best golfer in the world in 2025. Rory has FOUR career wins at Quail Hollow, and there might not be a course that fits his game better than Quail. Rory fits this course to a tee; long off the tee, impeccable short game, and elite iron play. I don’t think it would shock anyone if Rory won his second major in a row this week.

Xander Schauffele, $10.7k, 22/1 FD, 2nd in model

Key Stats:

• 2nd in SG:TOT (Last 30 Rounds @ Quail Hollow)
• 3rd in TOT Driving (Last 18 Months Long/Very Long Courses)
• 3rd in SG:APP (Last 50 Rounds Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
• 7th in Scrambling % (Last 50 Rounds Gain ARG Avg/Difficult/Very Difficult)

Xander got injured to start the season and missed 2 months. Once he returned, he finished T40 at the API and 72nd place at the Players. Since those two miserable starts in early March, Xander has gotten back on track: T12 at the Valspar, T8 at the Masters, T18 at the Heritage, and a T11 finish at the Truist. Xander looks back from his injury, and just like Rory, his course history at Quail Hollow is immaculate. Xander has posted back-to-back solo 2nd-place finishes at this course, and the way he played last year wins this event more times than not. Unfortunately for Xander, he ran into a Rory freight train.

Davis Thompson, $7.3K, +170/1 FD, 29th in model

Key Stats:

• 16th in SG:BS (Last 30 Rounds)
• 10th in Par 5 BoB % (Last 36 Rounds Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring)
• 14th in SG:ARG (Last 50 Rounds Gain ARG Average/Difficult/Very Difficult)
• 24th in SG:T2G (Last 50 Rounds Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring)

Thompson burst onto the scene last summer as one of the better young tee-to-green players on tour. To start the season this year, Thompson struggled big time, missing three out of eight cuts in January through March. Since the rocky start, Thompson has shown the high-level tee-to-green play he featured weekly last season. Thompson’s game also always seems to step up at harder courses; T13 at the Genesis, T10 at the Players, T46 at the Masters, T9 at the US Open Last Year, T27 at the Memorial last year, and the list goes on. Thompson is long and accurate off the tee, and that should make life much easier at Quail Hollow.

Keith Mitchell, $6.2K, +130/1 DK, 7th in model

Key Stats:

• 7th in SG:TOT (Last 30 Rounds @ Quail Hollow)
• 9th in TOT Driving (Last 18 Months Long/Very Long Courses)
• 6th in GIR % (Last 50 Rounds GIR Accuracy Difficult)
• 11th in SG:APP (Last 50 Rounds Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)

Keith has gained strokes ball striking in every tournament this season and has shown slight improvement with his short game. Keith has made four out of four cuts at Quail and has a T3 finish in 2021 and a T8 finish in 2019. This is an excellent course for Keith; as I said above, for Rory, you need to be long off the tee, have elite iron play, and a great short game. While Keith does lack the “great” short game, if his putting and chipping just cooperate, he should be able to make this cut and place well, and at 6200, that’s all you need.

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Davis Thompson

PGA Championship Bets:

Bets to come later on discord.

Betting Recap (last week and season):

Truist Championship: 0-1, -$110

Overall: 21-52, -$86

-1.73% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop. On outrights and longshot bets, tracking smaller units or TO WIN X amount (specified on release)

Make sure to join Discord to get the rest of the bets for this week!

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.