Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for the The Truist Championship

May 07, 2025

Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

The Byron Nelson Recap:

Last week, we saw one of the most dominant wins in a long time from Scottie Scheffler. If you didn’t roster Scottie last week, your lineup needed to be perfect to squeeze out a cash. 177 DK points is the highest I have seen in a very long time. Valimaki and Bramlett both made the cut and finished a solid T39. At their price points, those are both very acceptable performances. I had higher hopes for Valimaki after Day 1, but he had his worst tournament with his irons since early February. The only blemish on the top plays card this past week was Ryo. Ryo didn’t have it this week; he lost strokes ball striking, and with his short game, Ryo had his worst tournament since the Farmers in January.

Truist Championship Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

Using promo code: JAKE10 you will get your first month $10 (regularly $29.99).

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

SG:T2G (Last 20 Rounds)
SG:ARG (Last 50 Rounds Average/Difficult/Very Difficult to Gain ARG)
SG:P (Last 2 Years Fast Greens
SG:APP (Last 30 Rounds)
TOT Driving (Last 50 Rounds Very Short/Short/Average Courses)
BoB % (Last 36 Rounds)

Truist Championship DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Rory McIlroy, $12.0K, 5/1 Kambi, 3rd in model

Key Stats:

1st in SG:T2G (Last 20 Rounds)
16th in SG:P (Last 2 Years Fast Greens)
4th in SG:T2G (Last 50 Rounds Short/Very Short Courses)
9th in SG:ARG (Last 50 Rounds Gain ARG Average/Difficult/Very Difficult)

Rory has been the best golfer in 2025, and at only a 12k salary, he's just too cheap. Rory should be priced in the higher 12,000s. There are a lot of unknowns with this course, but for the most part, OTT play isn't essential, so I expect Rory to just bomb and gouge his way through this course. The course's main defense will be the absurd amount of bunkers and the difficult green complexes, on which Rory has great historical success on fast greens. Rory is on another level right now, and his floor looks very similar to Scottie's.

Tommy Fleetwood, $9.3k, 28/1 FD, 4th in model

Key Stats:

7th in SG:T2G (Last 20 Rounds)
2nd in 3-Putt AVD % (Last 36 Rounds Fast Greens)
13th in GIR % (Last 50 Rounds Short/Very Short Courses)
11th in Scrambling % (Last 50 Rounds Fast Greens)

Fleetwood is still looking for his first win on tour and has been hanging around close on Sundays. After Fleet putt terribly at the Valero and the Masters, he made a putter change at the Heritage. With his new putter, he had his third-best putting performance of the season. Just like Rory, Fleet has great historical success on fast greens, which he should be faced with fast sloped greens in Philly this week. Fleet has always been one of the tour’s best ball strikers, and he should put on a clinic at a shorter course. This could be the week Fleet finally gets over the hump and wins a PGA Tour event.

Akshay Bhatia, $7.1K, +75/1 FD, 31st in model

Key Stats:

11th in TOT Driving (Last 50 Rounds Short/Very Short/Average Courses)
14th in SG:APP (Last 50 Rounds Short/Very Short Courses)
8th in BoB % (Last 36 Rounds)
28th in SG:P (Last 2 Years Fast Greens)

Bhatia historically is a decent ARG golfer, but has struggled mightily the past few weeks. With the course being shorter and a lowish missed fairway penalty, the GIR rate should be higher this week, leading to less scrambling. Also, when looking at cheaper golfers in no-cut events, you need golfers who can birdie to score DK points, and looking no further than Bhatia, who is 8th in the field in birdies or better in the last 36 rounds. Bhatia can get red hot with his irons and putter, and at a shorter course, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to take dead aim at the hole. I like his chances of scoring well this week.

Eric Cole, $6.7K, +125/1 Caesars, 29th in model

Key Stats:

19th in SG:T2G (Last 20 Rounds)
6th in Overall 100-150 (Last 36 Rounds)
4th in SG:ARG (Last 50 Rounds Gain ARG Average/Difficult/Very Difficult)
21st in SG:P (Last 2 Years Bent Greens)

Cole burst onto the scene in 2023 as a 34-year-old rookie and shot up the OWGR, peaking at 36th in the world. Cole’s bread and butter since joining the tour is his spikey iron and putting play, which is necessary for success this week. This course is short, and if golfers hit good drives, they should be putting a wedge in their hands. Cole has been one of the best wedge players on tour this season, ranking 6th in Overall 100-150. Cole’s Achilles heel is his inaccuracy OTT, but it seems like he should be able to get away with some misses OTT this week, as the missed fairway penalty isn’t particularly high. Cole has also been in his best form since the end of last summer; in his last six tournaments, he has finished in T12, T15, T26, T18, and T5.

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Tommy Fleetwood

Truist Championship Bets:

Bets to come later on discord.

Betting Recap (last week and season):

Byron Nelson: 1-7, -$375

Overall: 21-51, +$24
0.49% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop. On outrights and longshot bets, tracking smaller units or TO WIN X amount (specified on release)

Make sure to join Discord to get the rest of the bets for this week!

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.