Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for the the Memorial Tournament
Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).
The PGA Championship Recap:
Note: this recap is for the PGA Championship from two weeks ago, as I did not have an article for last week’s Charles Schwab
The PGA was one of my worst weeks of the year, betting-wise and DFS-wise. Rory didn’t have it from the first tee and went from being +450 to winning the tournament to being a cut sweat. Xander, just like Rory, was a cut sweat as well; Xander, unlike Rory, at least put together a solid weekend to creep into the Top 30. Coming into 2025, I was a big believer in Davis Thompson’s golf game; he was one of the best total drivers on tour, flashed elite iron play for stretches of tournaments, and showed numerous spike weeks with his putter. In 2025, though, Davis is struggling big time. My biggest concern is how bad he has been putting, but I was still OK banking on him because there’s a lot of variance with putting, and the other parts of his game were still good. The past two weeks have been rough for him, and I will have to see some results before I go back to the well on him; I am still a long-term believer in Thompson, though. Keith at 6200 was simply too cheap, and he was massively owned in DFS contests, but just our luck, he loses a stroke a round with his ARG play and misses the cut by two shots. Keith is an elite ball striker, but his short game will kill him every once in a while.
Memorial Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):
Using promo code: JAKE10 you will get your first month $10 (regularly $29.99).
With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.
Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.
My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:
- SG:TOT (Course History)
- SG: APP (diff/very difficult gain on APP (8%), small greens (3.5%), GIR difficult (3.5%)
- DFEF (Last 50 rounds; rough penalty high)
- Par 5 BoB% (L18 months; long/very long courses, difficult/very difficult scoring)
- SG: ARG: L18 months; difficult/very difficult gain ARG
- GIR%: Last 50 rounds; gain OTT/APP difficult/very difficult
Memorial DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)
Tommy Fleetwood, $9.4k, 25/1 FD, 5th in model
Key Stats:
- 5th in SG:T2G (Last 24 Rounds)
- 12th in SG:ARG (Last 18 Months Gain ARG Difficult/Very Difficult)
- 12th in SG:APP (Last 50 Rounds Small Greens)
- 10th in SG:OTT (Last 50 Rounds Gain OTT Difficult/Very Difficult)
It’s only a matter of time until Fleetwood wins his first PGA event, and why not this week at Jack’s Place?? Fleetwood has been an absolute tee-to-green machine this season and has also hung around on Sundays. It’s crazy that Fleetwood hasn’t won a PGA tour event, given his golfing caliber, but maybe he lacks SG:Dog? I am not sure. Fleetwood checks all the boxes to succeed at Muirfield; he’s an accurate driver of the golf ball, possesses some of the best iron play on tour, and has a rock-solid short game. Fleetwood made a putter change before the RBC Heritage; his putting stats following the switch are as follows: +0.56 at the Heritage, +1.31 at the Truist, -0.76 at the PGA, and +0.84 at the Charles Schwab. With the rest of Fleetwood’s game firing on all cylinders all season, it’s good to see that the putting is also rounding into form.
Shane Lowry, $8.7K, +40/1 FD, 5th in model
Key Stats
- 5th in SG: APP (Last 50 rounds; difficult/very difficult gain on APP)
- 2nd in GIR % (L18 months; difficult/very difficult gain on APP)
- 2nd in SG: T2G (Last 24 rounds)
- 2nd in SG: BS (L18 months; difficult/very difficult gain OTT/APP)
Similar to Fleetwood, Lowry checks almost every box you’re looking for this weekend. Despite zero wins so far in 2025, Lowry has had a really strong season with four Top 10s and two T2s. Last year, Lowry was in the top 10 at -1 coming into Sunday, and shot 13! Over par to finish T49. I’m willing to ignore one Sunday and look at Lowry’s course history here as a whole, which is very strong T6, T32, T16 (2021 - 2023). Lowry is 5th in the field in the last 50 rounds in approach play (on courses where it is difficult/very difficult to gain on approach), and is 2nd in GIR % when GIR accuracy is difficult. I would not be surprised to see Lowry pick up his first win of the season come Sunday.
Alex Noren, $7.4K, +75/1 FD/Cs, 14th in model
Key Stats:
- 14th in SG:APP (Last 50 Rounds Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
- 3rd in GIR % (Last 18 Months Gain OTT/APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
- 9th in Par 5 BoB % (Last 18 Months Long/Very Long Courses & Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring)
- 11th in SG:P (Last 2 Years Bent Grass Greens)
Noren missed the first 4 months of the season this year, but it’s clear as day his ball striking didn’t skip a beat. Noren is fresh off a T17 finish at the PGA Championship, which is a long course that demands elite ball striking, and that wasn’t a tall challenge for Noren. As noted in the stats above, Noren hits greens at an elite rate, which is exactly what you need to do at Jack’s Place. Noren has a solid short game, and if his ball-striking success continues from the PGA and all of last year, Noren should place well.
Bud Cauley, $6.8K, 110/1 FD, 23rd in model
Key Stats:
- 12th in SG:T2G (Last 24 Rounds)
- 8th in SG:BS (Last 50 Rounds Gain OTT/APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
- 11th in GIR % (Last 18 Months Gain OTT/APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
- 22nd in Scrambling % (Last 18 Months Small Greens & Gain ARG Avg/Difficult/Very Difficult)
Cauley is playing some of the best golf of his career this season, has accumulated four Top 10 finishes, and has only missed one cut all year; the funny thing is that one missed cut was an alt event in Puerto Rico. Cauley has been fantastic ball striking this season and has no short-game woes. Cauley has played Muirfield eight times in his career, but his most recent appearance was 5 years ago in 2020. While Cauley hasn’t teed it up here in a while, he should still know the ins and outs of the course, and he’s playing amazing golf. Cauley has also played well at the tougher courses this season: T6 at the Players, 3rd last week at the Charles Schwab, T5 at the Valero, and T4 at the Valspar. All of those courses play over par, and this week should play over par as well.
PLAY OF THE WEEK: Tommy Fleetwood
Memorial Bets:
Bets to come later on discord.
Betting Recap (last week and season):
Charles Schwab: 0-3, -$365
Overall: 27-64, -$540
-7.97% ROI
Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop. On outrights and longshot bets, tracking smaller units or TO WIN X amount (specified on release)
Make sure to join Discord to get the rest of the bets for this week!
4for4 Additional Info:
Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.
You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.
For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.
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