Travis Kelce’s Fantasy Football Edge Is Fading

Travis Kelce is no longer standing atop the tight end mountain as he had for a decade-plus. The target dominance, downfield usage, and weekly separation from the rest of the tight end position are gone, yet his connection with Patrick Mahomes and role in the short-area passing game are still useful in a position that rarely offers comfort. The question for 2026 is not whether Kelce can get back to being an elite fantasy tight end. It is whether there is enough volume left in this version of the Chiefs’ offense to keep him afloat as a low-end TE1.

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Travis Kelce’s Career

As a future first-ballot real-life and fantasy football Hall of Famer, Travis Kelce doesn’t need much of an introduction. The overall TE1 for the better part of the last decade and a half, Kelce has 11 Pro Bowl nods, nearly 1,100 receptions, over 13,000 receiving yards, and a fair bit of Super Bowl jewelry to go along with it. But it’s impossible to deny that we’ve seen a decline in performance and outright production as we’ve moved deeper into his 30s.

Kelce’s targets and yards per route run have nose-dived over the last two campaigns, and though his OPEN score still sits at a very respectable 87th percentile, his usage in the deep game is now non-existent, catching six passes that traveled 20+ air yards in the last three years combined.

*Out of roughly 40 TEs, based on year

With that said, his raw targets are still regularly eclipsing 100, and paired with his work inside the opponents’ 10-yard line, he has remained afloat. In a notoriously flimsy fantasy position, Kelce continues to rank in the top-10 in both green zone looks (7 targets in 2025) and targets per game (6.2).

Gone are the days of Patrick Mahomes terrorizing defenses with the deep ball so often that he quite literally helped change the collective faces of the league’s defensive schemes, but the Mahomes-Kelce connection has remained strong in the short and intermediate areas of the field. Kelce remains one of the best safety blankets in the league, and if the QB continues to drop back 42+ times per game, as he has in five of the last six seasons, we should be able to bake in enough floor for Kelce to knock out yet another TE1 performance.

The issue is, we have to ask whether this will still be the same voluminous passing attack in 2026.

The Chiefs’ Offense in 2026

As much as things have changed, they’ve stayed the same. Long-time offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is back in town after a three-year leave with the Commanders, UCLA Bruins, and Chicago Bears, and though he brings back fond memories of an explosive Chiefs offense, it’s fair to wonder exactly how much he could transform the 2026 version. This will always be, at its core, an Andy Reid operation, so it’d be hard to envision a sudden reversion to a down-field approach.

Even if they wanted to, they don’t exactly have the pieces surrounding Mahomes to accomplish it.

They certainly tried with Xavier Worthy —who is 5’11”, 165 pounds— last season, but that didn’t go well. The diminutive receiver lined up on the outside on 69.0% of his routes, being targeted 16 times on “go”, “corner” and “post” routes, accumulating three catches for 86 yards. The subsequent 1.72 yards per route run ranked 66th out of 83 qualifying receivers. And this is probably the fastest guy on the field at any given time, so you’d expect him to hit on these every once in a while. Unless the defense knows it’s coming. For comparison’s sake, “smaller” wide receivers like DeVonta Smith (5.34), Zay Flowers (5.41), and Jaylen Waddle (5.46) have all excelled on these routes.

These are obviously all more complete receivers than Worthy, but the point is, their best theoretical field-stretching option may be Tyquan Thornton, not the fastest player on their team. Which is certainly something.

Which is another reason that the offseason addition of Kenneth Walker is a pretty clear sign that this team will be leaning heavily on the run. Over the last three seasons, Kansas City ranks behind only the Cincinnati Bengals in neutral-game pass rate. And while that makes sense when you have a generational talent in Patrick Mahomes, it doesn’t help when your leading rushers are post-prime Kareem Hunt, post-injury Isiah Pacheco, and, well, the Clyde Edwards-Helaire experience.

According to our Team Stat Explorer, the Chiefs have ranked 23rd (7.5%), 32nd (4.3%), and 32nd (5.6%) in explosive run rate over the last three seasons. Over that same timeframe, Walker has had 79 rushes of 10+ yards on 658 carries, or a 12% explosive rate with 42 of them (and a 14.6% rate) coming in 2025.

Projecting the Chiefs’ Pass-Catchers in Fantasy

With Mahomes potentially dealing with a post-knee injury ramp-up, a smattering of slants and screens to Rashee Rice, more creative ways to get Worthy some easier touches, and a run game potentially taking away from the pure volume of the passing game, we have a very obvious cap on an aging Travis Kelce.

With that said, his connection with Mahomes, particularly in the short-area option routes, is going nowhere. And the depth of Jimmy Holiday (?), Cyrus Allen, Jalen Royals, and a lengthy group of UDFAs isn’t going to hinder that.

Assuming Rice stays on the field for the entirety of the season, he’s a great bet as a WR2, while Worthy, and to a lesser extent, Thornton make for viable dart throws in the 10th and final rounds, respectively. As for Kelce himself, we know what we’re getting: a low-end TE1 who may make us think about streaming candidates on a weekly basis, while providing enough comfort because he rarely bottoms out.

Bottom Line

• Travis Kelce is no longer the kind of tight end we draft for a weekly positional edge. The targets are still there, but the downfield usage has disappeared, the yards-per-route-run numbers have fallen, and the Chiefs may be less willing to lean on pure passing volume after adding Kenneth Walker.
• The good news is that Kelce’s role is not going away entirely. His chemistry with Patrick Mahomes remains one of the safest short-area connections in football, and his green-zone usage still gives him enough scoring access to matter in fantasy.
• According to 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP, Kelce is coming off boards as the TE10 at the 9th/10th round turn. This is directly in front of Dallas Goedert, Isaiah Likely, and Dalton Kincaid, who arguably all have better ceilings, but lower floors. Having safety at such a volatile position is a fantastic feeling, so I wouldn’t talk you out of him —especially if he slides down boards— but if I’m teetering between him and some interesting wide receivers in this range (Jayden Reed, Worthy, Josh Downs), I’m probably going to lean toward the WR.