Fantasy Football Overachievers: Can They Do It Again/Who Won’t Do It Again?

Every season, there are some players who exceed expectations in fantasy football. Finding the correct one of them in drafts can be key to winning your league. However, another important decision is whether to believe in the increased production from the overachievers the previous season is sustainable or not. Let’s highlight five players who exceeded expectations last year and discuss what to expect from them in 2026.

George Pickens, WR, Steelers

Prior to last year, George Pickens’ best performance came as a member of the Steelers in 2023. He led the team with 106 targets, finishing with 63 receptions for 1,140 yards and five touchdowns. However, his tenure with the Steelers was largely marred by poor quarterback play. The players that were primarily under center during Pickens’ time with the franchise included Kenny Pickett, Justin Fields, and the aging Russell Wilson

Following the 2024 season, Pickens was traded to the Cowboys. It was a case of good news, bad news for his potential fantasy production. Dak Prescott is by far the best quarterback that Pickens has ever played with, but CeeDee Lamb is in the fold to compete for targets. Lamb did miss three games, plus there was another game in which he logged only seven offensive snaps before being injured. Over that four-game span, Pickens caught 24 of 35 targets for 427 yards and five touchdowns. He was targeted on 25.4% of his routes run, which was an increase over his final season mark of 23.1%. Pickens went on to set career highs in receptions (93), receiving yards (1,429), and touchdowns (nine) on his way to finishing as the WR6 in fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring, per 4for4’s Fantasy Points Browser.

According to 4for4’s Multi-Sit ADP, Pickens has an ADP of 23, making him WR10. A completely healthy season from Lamb would deal a bit of a blow to Pickens’ production, but that seems to be baked into his ADP already. The Cowboys should have an underwhelming defense again, and their offense will only go as far as Prescott, Lamb, and Pickens can carry them. There is a very real possibility that he finishes as a top-10 wide receiver in fantasy again.

Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants

The Giants didn’t have a huge hole at running back heading into the 2025 Draft. Tyrone Tracy Jr., whom they selected in the fifth round the season prior, had over 1,100 total yards during his rookie campaign. That didn’t stop them from beefing up the position by selecting Cam Skattebo in the fourth round. After not seeing much of the field in Week 1, Skattebo saw his role expand beginning in Week 2. Over the next six games, he averaged 17.4 fantasy points per game. That made him RB7 during that span, beating out some big names like James Cook (16.0) and Kyren Williams (14.4).

Skattebo’s season came crashing to a halt in Week 8 when he suffered a season-ending ankle injury. With the full offseason to recover, he wasn’t limited in training camp and has played in the preseason. However, he now has a new head coach in John Harbaugh. Last season, the Ravens finished third in the NFL in rushing attempts under his tutelage. That’s not a new trend, considering they finished second in 2024, first in 2023, and seventh in 2022. Baltimore did have a mobile quarterback in Lamar Jackson who boosted their rushing attempts. Still, Derrick Henry was also heavily featured. He finished fourth in the NFL in rushing attempts last year and second in 2024, which was his first season with the Ravens. The Giants have their own mobile quarterback in Jaxson Dart, but history indicates that Skattebo should also receive a ton of carries. His current ADP of 41 makes him RB18 off the board. There’s no reason to believe that he can’t meet the expectations that come with that being selected in that area of the draft. That Giants did recently sign Najee Harris, but that will likely impact Tracy more than it would Skattebo.

Wan'Dale Robinson, WR, Titans

Wan'Dale Robinson is in the discussion from one of the most surprising performances of any player last year. Workload hasn’t been a problem for him, evident by his 140 targets in 2024. However, he turned them into 93 receptions for just 699 yards and three touchdowns. His average depth of target was a paltry 4.6 yards. He had a history of receiving short passes. His average depth of target was 5.6 yards in 2022, then 5.1 yards in 2023. There was nothing to indicate that the Giants were going to air things out with him anytime soon.

Big changes brought unexpected production from Robinson last year. Dart took over as the starting quarterback in Week 4, adding an element of explosiveness to their offense. That same week, Malik Nabers suffered a torn ACL that ended his season. With few other quality options at wide receiver, the Giants gave Robinson an average depth of target of 8.5 yards. That helped him finish the season with 92 receptions, 1,014 yards, and four touchdowns. To show how big of an impact the deeper targets had on his stat line, he had the exact same number of targets that he had the season prior and one fewer reception.

Robinson cashed in on his performance, signing with the Titans during the offseason. He will now play for another young quarterback in Cam Ward. His offensive coordinator is a familiar face in Brian Daboll, who was the head coach of the Giants. However, first-round pick Carnell Tate will be competing with Robinson for targets. He is a much better deep threat, averaging 17.2 yards per reception in college last year. It would be shocking if Robinson even approached 1,000 receiving yards again, which is largely reflected in his ADP of 102. That puts him at WR44.

Michael Wilson, WR, Cardinals

A third-round pick in the 2023 Draft, Michael Wilson wasn’t much of a fantasy option during his first two seasons in the league. In his rookie campaign, he caught 38 or 58 targets for 565 yards and three touchdowns. He followed that up with 47 receptions for 548 yards and four touchdowns on 71 targets the next year. His average depths of target of 13.7 and 11.2 yards weren’t bad, but his target share didn’t exceed 14.6% in either of those seasons.

Wilson was off to another quiet start last year, posting 22 receptions for 231 yards and one touchdown over the first nine games. He was targeted on just 12.3% of his routes run. Things then turned on a dime for him in Week 11. Marvin Harrison Jr. was injured and went on to miss five of the final eight games of the season. From Week 11 through the end of the regular season, Wilson finished as WR2 in fantasy points per game (17.7), trailing only Puka Nacua (20.6). He was targeted on 28.6% of his routes run and averaged 11.0 targets a game. That included 10 red zone targets, which helped him record six touchdowns.

Jacoby Brissett is back at quarterback this season, so that’s good news for Wilson because the two worked so well together last year. However, Harrison is healthy, which should limit Wilson’s targets. The Cardinals also drafted running back Jeremiyah Love, which should help their offense that had the fifth-worst explosive rush rate in the NFL, per 4for4’s NFL Team Stat Explorer. We’ve mentioned all of that before even getting to Trey McBride, who had a 27.2% target share out of the tight end position last year. Wilson’s ADP is 92, making him WR41. It would likely take an injury to Harrison or McBride for Wilson to sniff the type of production he provided last year.