O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 8

Oct 26, 2022

Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, and that includes the positive and negative impact an offensive line has on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 8 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what o-line/defense match-ups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Vikings vs. Cardinals

Minnesota’s young offensive line is continuing to gel in front of Kirk Cousins, keeping their quarterback clean through most of the 2022 campaign; now we just need him to uncork some balls down the field. That opportunity presents itself this week as they host an Arizona Cardinals defense that allows teams to pick them apart through the air. Through seven games, the Cardinals have allowed plays with positive EPA at the second-highest rate in the league while allowing the third-highest points per drive and the fourth-highest explosive pass% (plays that gain 15+ yards). Part of this is due to a secondary allowing a 67.7% completion rate (23rd), but they’re also not getting much help from their pass rush, as they’ve only mustered 11 sacks on the season and have a pressure rate of 29% (25th).

Things are shaping up for an explosive Justin Jefferson performance coming out of the bye, with plenty of room for fantasy viability for both Adam Thielen and Irv Smith Jr. The Cardinals rank 31st in aFPA and have allowed a league-leading six touchdowns to the tight end position, further bolstering Smith as a top-ten option for Week 8.

Raiders @ Saints

The Raiders offensive line has been a pleasant surprise this season, sitting in the top half of the league in both adjusted sack rate and adjusted line yards after coming into the year ranked in the bottom five of these OL rankings. On the other side of this matchup, the Saints' pass rush hasn’t extended beyond Demario Davis and Cameron Jordan, and they currently rank dead last in pressure rate on the year (22.1%). This has left their secondary in a bad place, as they have allowed a league-high 117.7 passer rating when quarterbacks target their wide receivers. In turn, New Orleans allows the fourth most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing WRs.

While Davante Adams is in your fantasy lineup no matter what, this sets up as a matchup in which Hunter Renfrow can get back on track. Another week removed from concussion **and hip issues, Renfrow was on a bit of a snap count in Week 7, ceding some of his typical slot usage to Mack Hollins and tight end Foster Moreau. Back into his usual role this week, he makes for a WR3 or Flex play as a high-floor, low-ceiling play.

Panthers @ Falcons

As the Carolina Panthers franchise is being thrust deep into the shadow realm, it’s important that the team finds cornerstone pieces to build around as they head into the next couple of draft cycles with a plethora of picks at their disposal. One of those beacons of hope comes in the form of their rookie left tackle, who has allowed only three pressures over his last four games. This has been a whole month of action against some of the best pass rushers in the NFL, including Shaquil Barrett, Nick Bosa, and a little sprinkling of Aaron Donald.

The level of competition will take a precipitous dropoff in Week 8 against an Atlanta Falcons team that has the league’s second-lowest adjusted sack rate and the fourth-lowest pressure%. There aren’t a ton of beneficiaries as the Panthers’ skill position group has been decimated, but that means this matchup points to D.J. Moore and the breakout game we’ve been waiting for all year long. Last week operated as a good primer, as his ridiculous 45% target share was the second-most on the week (DeAndre Hopkins - 46.7%), while his air yards share of 45.5% was good enough for eighth. This usage added up to a WR8 finish and there should be more to come against this Falcons defense as Moore and P.J. Walker continue to sync up.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Texans vs. Titans

The Titans are doing their typical song and dance; they’re out-kicking their coverage in terms of what all the metrics are saying and are once again sitting atop their division at 4-2. This is despite the fact that they’re dead last in yardage gained and 26th in yardage allowed. When Tennessee takes to the air, you start to get an idea of why they run their offense at the slowest pace in the NFL; they’re trying to shorten the game to keep it close. With a depleted pass-catching group and an offensive line that allows the second-highest pressure rate in the league, This sets up as a game for Jerry Hughes and the rest of the Texans’ pass rush to utilize a get-right spot against a division rival.

You likely don’t need to dig this deep for a D/ST in a typical redraft league, but they are very intriguing on DFS slates, where you can pair them with Dameon Pierce.

49ers vs. Rams

The Rams' offensive line is not what it once was due to retirements, injuries, and a lack of assessment through the NFL Draft. With left tackle Joseph Noteboom heading to the IR, the team was forced to sign journeyman Ty Nsekhe and move 2021 UDFA Alaric Jackson from right guard over to left tackle. The team wasn’t moving mountains before the injury either, as both Cam Akers (47th/47, -0.98) and Darrell Henderson (41st/47, -0.41) rank in the bottom seven in terms of Next Gen Stats’ rushing yards over expectation and the offensive line has a league-worst 3.73 adjusted line yards.

With no rushing game to speak of, the 49ers' defensive line will be able to pin their ears back and tee off on Matthew Stafford, who currently has more interceptions (eight) than touchdowns (six) and took four sacks on 28 pressures when these teams faced off in Week 4. It was decidedly Nick Bosa’s best game on the season as the team lined him up over the left tackle on 60% of his snaps, a number that is typically flipped, but it’s clear San Francisco wanted him to attack Stafford’s blindside. Expect more of the same on Sunday, and stick the 49ers D/ST in your lineups to take advantage.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Lions vs. Dolphins

The Detroit Lions feel like a team that’s coming apart at the seams after a promising first month to the season, but at least they’ll continue their meltdown against a Dolphins team that allows the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the running back position. Over the Lions’ previous three games (excluding the Week 6 bye), Jamaal Williams is averaging 17.7 opportunities (targets plus carries) per game, while ranking second in the league with his five carries from within the opponent’s five-yard-line. Being that the team scored a combined six points in two of those games, Williams came out of that stretch as the RB20, but it’s clear that the team wants to get him the ball when (or if) they get near the goal line.

With the Dolphins allowing eight rushing touchdowns on the season and this game having the highest over/under on the week (51.5), Jamaal Williams makes for a great RB2 play with RB1 upside, while Craig Reynolds can be plugged in as a desperation Flex for the truly desperate.

Patriots @ Jets

New England is coming off one of the more surprising outcomes for Week 7 and will look to get right against one of the heaviest run-funnel defenses in the league. While the Jets rank in the top ten in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and wide receivers, they rank 22nd in aFPA to the running back position. This sets up well for Rhamondre Stevenson, who now has a stranglehold on the New England rushing attack, despite the return of Damien Harris from his sprained hamstring. Stevenson out-touched Harris 19-to-4 and now ranks in the top seven running backs in both carries (55) and average opportunities (23.3) over the last three weeks.

Though the “Patriot Way” might reel its ugly head and do something absurd like feature Pierre Strong Jr., all Rhamondre Stevenson shares should be safe for now, and he is ranked as an RB9 heading into this matchup.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad match-up through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: