Week 5 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: Tampa Bay Breaks Two-Game Slide
This week we have a cluster of touchdown or more spreads which makes differentiating from your pool mates a little trickier. Hopefully, with the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, we can select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick 'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.
Editor’s Note: PoolGenius subscribers win football pools three times as often as expected, thanks to customized picks designed for your pool's size and rules. No one else does it.
Week 4 Recap
I finally had myself a week as all five of my selected teams won in Week 4 for a 5-0 output. The Packers, Cowboys, Bills, Vikings, and Giants all came out with a win bringing my season total to 12-8. Let’s move on to Week 5, where hopefully, we find success in both pick'em and survivor formats.
Pick'em Pool Breakdown
Before I get into the picks, note that I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 5 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.
However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 5 picks from your pool opponents by taking on only a modest amount of risk, or no additional risk at all.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Sometimes you have to take the easy layup, and the Buccaneers are in that spot this week. Marcus Mariota is treading water as the QB for Atlanta, and they will be without Cordarelle Patterson on the road in Tampa.
The Bucs are 8.5-point favorites in this matchup, with 77% win odds via both PoolGenius and Vegas. As always, with these big spreads, you’ll win or lose with the majority of your pool, as 96% of the public is taking Tampa Bay.
Sensibly Priced Favorite
Green Bay Packers vs. Giants (In London)
The London game did me right last week, so I’m going back to the well again in Week 5. Green Bay is favored by eight points in this contest, with 77% Vegas win odds and 72% via PoolGenius. New York could be down to their third-string QB, and Aaron Rodgers should be able to pick apart the Giants’ secondary.
The public is also on the Packers 94% of the time, which is high, but still less than games with similar spreads like Tampa Bay (96%), Kansas City (96%), and Minnesota (96%), so there is some value in the pick.
San Francisco 49ers @ Panthers
The 49ers have struggled on the road this season, but this is the week they get it right. Carolina’s defense is decent, but offensively Baker Mayfield should have difficulty moving the ball against San Francisco.
This game has the Niners favored by 6.5 points, with PoolGenius win odds currently set at 73%. With just 90% of public bettors picking San Francisco, there is some value in the selection in Week 5.
Miami Dolphins @ Jets
We get Teddy Bridgewater versus Zach Wilson in this AFC East matchup, and I’ll take the Teddy side with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and an effective run game. The Jets' secondary will have their hands full, while Miami’s defense should easily control whatever Wilson dishes out.
The Dolphins are 3.5-point road favorites with just 63% Vegas win odds. With just 73% of the public backing Miami, there’s a chance to differentiate yourself in some larger pools.
New England Patriots vs. Lions
Detroit has been lighting up the scoreboard, but so have their opponents to the tune of allowing 35.25 points per game this season. The Patriots are three-point favorites at home, with 59% win odds via PoolGenius.
Matt Patricia will be extra fired up in this revenge game, and they should whip up a heavy dose of Damien Harris, and Rhamondre Stevenson as the Lions have allowed the second-highest schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed or aFPA to RBs this season. Public bettors are taking the Patriots 56% of the time, so there is certainly some value in the pick.
Survivor Picks for Week 5
Win Odds: Top 5 Week 5 Picks
Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.
Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):
- Buffalo Bills vs. Steelers (88%, 14-point favorites)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Falcons (78%, 8.5-point favorites)
- Green Bay Packers vs. Giants (77%, 7.5-point favorites)
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Texans (75%, 7.5-point favorites)
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Raiders (75%, 7-point favorites)
Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.
Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 5 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):
- Buffalo Bills vs. Steelers (36%)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Falcons (17%)
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Texans (15%)
- Minnesota Vikings vs Bears (10%)
- Green Bay Packers vs. Giants (6%)
The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 5, you won’t be able to use them later.
According to PoolGenius, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:
- Buffalo Bills (8.9)
- Philadelphia Eagles (6.7)
- Kansas City Chiefs (4.7)
- Baltimore Ravens (4.6)
- Green Bay Packers (4.4)
Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the PoolGenius Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.