Week 5 Breakout Player Model: Top Contrarian NFL DFS Plays

Oct 07, 2022
Week 5 Breakout Player Model: Top Contrarian Plays

One of the biggest advantages you can deploy in daily fantasy is buying low on a player who has fallen out of favor with the rest of the field but is set up for a smash week. The 4for4 Player Stat Explorer is home to a model that compares a fantasy player's actual fantasy output with their expected fantasy output, based on their usage and historical data. The goal is to highlight players that have had the requisite usage (snaps, targets, air yards, etc) to produce big fantasy outcomes, but due to the natural variance of the sport have yet to do so. Many times, those underperforming players will be low-owned in DFS and make for fantastic contrarian plays, which this article will highlight.

More Week 5 DFS Strategy: Cash Game Breakdown | GPP Breakdown | Daigle’s Top Values and Picks | WR/CB Matchups

Most Fantasy Points Below Expectation, Weeks 1-4
Player Team Pos Fantasy Points Expected Fantasy Points FPOE
Alvin Kamara NO RB 8.3 17.0 -8.7
Matthew Stafford LA QB 13.7 21.6 -8.0
Scott Miller TB WR 4.3 12.1 -7.8
Jameis Winston NO QB 13.6 21.2 -7.6
DJ Chark DET WR 3.8 10.8 -7.0
Sterling Shepard NYG WR 9.7 16.5 -6.9
Keelan Cole LV WR 2.2 9.0 -6.8
A.J. Green ARI WR 2.3 9.1 -6.8
Dezmon Patmon IND WR 4.4 10.0 -5.6
Davante Adams LV WR 14.3 19.8 -5.5
Dante Pettis CHI WR 0.0 5.3 -5.3
Dyami Brown WAS WR 1.6 6.8 -5.2
Mike Davis BAL RB 0.4 5.6 -5.2
Rondale Moore ARI WR 3.7 8.9 -5.2
Allen Robinson LA WR 7.4 12.5 -5.1
Derek Carr LV QB 17.2 22.0 -4.9
Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC WR 7.1 11.8 -4.6
Jack Stoll PHI TE 1.4 5.8 -4.4
Chris Godwin TB WR 12.5 16.8 -4.3
Carson Wentz WAS QB 15.6 19.9 -4.3
Javonte Williams DEN RB 7.4 11.7 -4.3
Garrett Wilson NYJ WR 15.2 19.5 -4.3
Davis Mills HOU QB 11.6 15.9 -4.3
Joe Flacco NYJ QB 18.9 23.1 -4.2
Joe Mixon CIN RB 11.8 15.9 -4.1

* PPR Points/G: PPR fantasy points per game, x-Fpts/G: expected PPR fantasy points per game, FPOE/G: fantasy points over expectation per game

RB Alvin Kamara, Saints ($7,000 FD/$6,600 DK)

Kamara has severely underproduced through four weeks of the season, half of that because he hasn't been active. The other half is a lack of efficiency on a good amount of touches. He's fifth in the league in RB target share with almost 16% of the Saints' targets. He's averaging about 18 touches per game with 5.5 of them coming through the air. With another week to rest his ribs, Kamara should be able to get back to his normal workload this week against a Seahawks defense that has allowed 154 yards per game on the ground. Everyone is hopping off the Kamara wagon as he hasn't hit double-digit fantasy points yet this year. If there was a get-right game for Kamara on the Saints' schedule it's this game against the Seahawks. I'll take Kamara now when he's sub-20% and has a price drop.

QB Matthew Stafford, Rams ($7,400 FD/$6,400 DK)

Matthew Stafford checks in with 12.4 fantasy points per game, which ranks 29th among all quarterbacks despite being 12th in attempts, ninth in red zone attempts, and having a relatively clean pocket to throw from. His efficiency has not been the best to start the season. He ranks 22nd in red zone completion rate and 30th in deep ball completion rate. With the talent he has surrounding him, those numbers have to bounce back in the positive direction soon.

There are some factors, like his elbow, that could be causing the poor performance to start the year, but I think it's smart to hop on Stafford and the Rams while they are struggling to take advantage of the under-rostered studs. Stafford ranks second in fantasy points under expectation through the last three weeks. He has a tough test in the Cowboys defense this week, however, he rates first in the league at completing passes under pressure. Additionally, the Cowboys defensive backs like to gamble a little bit which can leave them susceptible to the big play.

WR D.J. Moore, Panthers ($5,900 FD/$5,200 DK)

D.J. Moore came into the season as a top-30 pick in redraft with many supporters clamoring this would be his breakout year. Baker Mayfield has not done much to help Moore, but we may have seen a glimpse into that starting to turn around last week. Through the first three weeks, Moore had 18 total targets. Last week, they made it a point to get him the ball. He finished with 11 targets. Moore is 79th in yards per route run, which is crazily inefficient. He's playing on virtually every down and running a route on every Baker dropback. He owns a 25% target share and 32% air yard share for the Panthers. Moore's usage is there, especially last week—we need to be on him when the efficiency catches up to him.

WR Rondale Moore, Cardinals ($5,200 FD/$4,100 DK)

As of this writing, Moore is dinged up (again), so just make sure that he suits up for Sunday. He's practicing, so I think he will be active. Moore made his season debut last week and it was nothing like you'd expect from the Rondale we are used to. With Kirk gone, Moore had a bit more freedom to run routes beyond the line of scrimmage. If you'll remember, he's pretty much been a short pass specialist.

In his first game action this season, Moore notched a 32% air yard share with an 11.6-yard average target depth. He ran 30 routes with only eight coming from the slot. Two of his five targets were deep shots as well. It's clear his role has changed within this offense to give him a chance to make more plays downfield. Given that he ran a route on 94% of Kyler dropbacks and played 90% of the snaps, it's only a matter of time until Rondale has a 5/100/1 type stat line. I don't think he'll be popular this week, so as the trend goes let's roster him now while he's inexpensive and not highly rostered.

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