The Fantasy Impact of Deshaun Watson's Trade to Cleveland

After quietly being out of the NFL news cycle, Deshaun Watson bursted through like the Kool-Aid man March 18 by agreeing to a trade that sent him to the Cleveland Browns. Watson also agreed to a five-year, $230 million deal that is fully guaranteed.

Not bad if you can get it.

Watson gets to ply his trade away from Houston, a team struggling to be relevant in real and fantasy football. But before he plays his first snap in Cleveland, it is realistic that the former Texan will have to handle and answer for his legal issues.

There is a lot to talk about regarding Watson, as well as his current and former teams.

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Civil Lawsuits Remain for Watson

Watson has 22 civil lawsuits tied to sexual misconduct allegations. Those 22 allegations were dropped by a Texas grand jury in criminal proceedings, but the civil actions remain and will be a large part of Watson’s offseason. An NFL investigation is also going to play a role in Watson’s 2022 availability, which could lead to a suspension on top of being a healthy scratch for all 2021 Texans games.

For fantasy football, it is impossible to project Watson’s statistics or games played until the NFL has made their decision.

Watson’s Role with the Browns

The long-standing joke is the Browns jersey with numerous names trailing vertically towards the ground. That ends this season as Watson is the most talented quarterback since the joke started with Tim Couch, and arguably in team history. Prior to his disappearance from the football field, Watson completed 70% of his passes and had a 33-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 444 rushing yards in 2020. His completion percentage was good for third in the NFL. Watson had Brandin Cooks and (a healthier) Will Fuller as his top wideouts, as well as the Brothers Johnson (David and Duke) carrying and catching passes out of the backfield.

Watson sees an upgrade in running backs in Cleveland. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combine to make the best 1-2 running back tandem in the league. The recently acquired Amari Cooper will not be the best wideout Watson has thrown to but is within the top three. Cooper is coming off his lowest yards per game since 2018, his last with the Las Vegas (Oakland) Raiders. He followed 2018 with his highest yards per game in 2019, his first with Dallas. A repeat of the change of scenery benefitting Cooper is in question because he has seen his yards per game drop in three consecutive seasons. Behind Cooper is Donovan Peoples-Jones, Anthony Schwartz, and Jakeem Grant Sr.

The depth at receiver may not seem ideal, but the Browns have two tight ends – David Njoku and Harrison Bryant – that will be relied on. Neither has stuck out as an alpha tight end but the release of Austin Hooper has made the tight end situation clearer. Another drawback for the duo is the Browns led the NFL in ‘13 personnel’ plays (three tight ends, one running back, one receiver, SportsInfoSolutions) last season, using it on 18% of offensive plays. Not every snap for their top two tight ends figures to allow one or both to run routes.

Grant has been used as a gadget player and returner and could do the same in 2022. Demetric Felton is a RB/WR that did a lot of work split out of the backfield in 2021 and with UCLA as he wrapped up his college career.

Watson is no stranger to throwing to open options—he had five receivers with at least 400 yards receiving in 2020, and the Johnson running back duo combined for over 500 yards through the air.

Another aspect to like for Watson is the deep ball. Since 2018, the Browns have had a deep ball rate of at least 20% in three of four seasons, including the two seasons with Kevin Stefanski as head coach. Watson only topped that mark once in four seasons in Houston. The Browns were also top five in neutral pass rate the past two seasons.

All of this is useful if Watson plays. If not, Jacoby Brissett will be under center. In three seasons with at least five starts, Brissett has never averaged more than 6.6 yards per pass attempt (SportsInfoSolutions), or 1.1 yards below Watson’s worst season.

What is Left for Houston Without Watson

The Texans appear committed to giving Davis Mills the 2022 season to show that he is their QB of the future. Mills played like a mid-round rookie a fair share but showed signs of competency, including four 300-yard games, a competitive loss to the New England Patriots, and an upset win against the Los Angeles Chargers. Mills was able to rely on Cooks and rookie receiver Nico Collins in the passing game and is set to have both once again in 2022. Brevin Jordan was also a rookie drafted in 2021 that will be expected to take another positive step in 2022.

Cooks is being drafted as the WR33 in Underdog best ball drafts. Collins is currently the WR76 with an ADP of 166.7. 4for4’s Never-Too-Early Rankings have Cooks as WR20 and Collins as WR65.

Houston acquired three first-round picks including Cleveland’s 2022 first pick (13th overall). The Texans have 10 picks total for 2022, and another wideout plus help in the backfield should be on the list of priorities at skill positions.

The Bottom Line

• Deshaun Watson becomes the best quarterback in recent Browns history and has the chance to expand the Browns passing game in a way he did not consistently in Houston.
• Watson has relied on top skill position players, but has also fed enough running backs and receivers to allow multiple fantasy options in the Browns offense, especially if Cleveland continues to pass in neutral game scripts.
• It is impossible to predict Watson’s fantasy production because of sexual misconduct allegations. His off-field transactions directly correlate to Cleveland’s offensive success in 2022.
• Watson’s 2021 absence allowed the Texans to get an idea if Davis Mills was worthy of being their 2022 starter.
• As the QB14 in Underdog best ball ADP, Watson is too high to be drafted if he is suspended for more than six games. QB14 may also be the lowest he goes on Underdog from this point forward.