DFS Optimal Values, Locks and Fades: Week 18

Jan 07, 2022
DFS Optimal Values, Locks and Fades: Week 18

In this article, we walk through the process of constructing an optimal lineup that will dominate your cash games on the main slate of Week 18. We start with the optimal lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings determined by the Lineup Generator. Then, we identify the players that are irreplaceable and should be locked into your lineup. For the remaining players, we discuss the main alternatives that you can swap in to make a winning team that best fits your own style.

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FanDuel Week 18 Optimal Plays

Locks

Potential Build

Josh Allen ($8,800) is our top value at quarterback. Last week he only passed for 120 yards, threw three interceptions and still scored 20 fantasy points, mostly due to 81 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. This week he should hit his ceiling against the Jets who are allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game and the second-highest yards per pass attempt. Another option in this price range is Kyler Murray ($8,400). He gets a Seattle defense allowing the second-most passing yards per game. Murray has also rushed for over 40 yards in four of his last five games.

D'Onta Foreman ($6,900) has rushed for over 100 rushing yards in two of his last three games. The Titans are second in the NFL in rushing play percentage and the Texans defense is being run on at the third-highest rate. Last week Foreman's snap share doubled to a season-high 65%.

Foreman is the preferred value but Antonio Gibson ($6.800) is another option in this price range if he plays. He was held under 40 rushing yards in three straight games due to brutal matchups against the Eagles and the Cowboys top-five defenses. Things are much easier this week against the Giants who are allowing the 10th-most rushing yards per game and the third-highest yards per carry when playing at home.

Chase Claypool ($5,800) and Diontae Johnson are the only Steelers receivers with at least 15% of the team's air yards—in fact, they have combined for a very nice 69%. With Johnson being out, Claypool should be the clear top target against the Ravens who have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. For even cheaper, Gabriel Davis ($5,200) also has a good matchup against the Jets who rank 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to wide receivers. Since Week 14, Davis has averaged 85% of the snaps and six targets per game.

Zach Ertz ($5,600) has received at least nine targets in three straight games. This week he gets the Seahawks defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Pat Freiermuth ($5,200) hasn't had nearly as good of a workload but should benefit from Diontae Johnson missing this week's game. He hasn't topped 50 receiving yards since week five but is a threat to find the end zone against the Ravens who are allowing the second-most passing touchdowns per game.

DraftKings Week 18 Optimal Plays

Locks

Potential Build

Tyler Huntley ($5,700) only has one ceiling game but has showcased his floor, rushing for over 40 yards in three straight games. The Steelers look like a tough matchup (13th in aFPA) but their defense has shown cracks playing on the road. When traveling, they are allowing the 10th-most passing yards per game and the second-most red zone trips. Another option in this price range is Trey Lance ($5,500). He showed off his dual-threat ability last week throwing for two touchdowns while adding 31 rushing yards on eight attempts. However, the matchup is much tougher against the Rams who rank eighth in aFPA to quarterbacks and is allowing the second-fewest touchdown passes per game.

Devin Singletary ($6,000) is coming off of his best game of the season, rushing for over 100 yards and scoring two touchdowns. It was also the second time he received over 20 touches over the last three weeks. This week he gets the best possible matchup for running backs against the Jets. Another option with a great matchup is D'Onta Foreman ($5,700). The Texans' defense is allowing the most rushing yards and the second-most rushing touchdowns per game.

Since Week 8, Deonte Harris ($3,200) has received the second-highest target share on the Saints, averaging nearly six targets per game. This week he goes against the Falcons who are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers. When playing at home they are also allowing second-most passing touchdowns per game. Some cheap pay-down options are Juwan Winfree ($3,000) and Equanimous St. Brown ($3,000). The Packers are expected to rest their starters but have a plus matchup against the Lions. They rank 27th in aFPA to wide receivers and are allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game when playing at home. The Packers and Lions game also has the second-highest over/under on the slate.

I mentioned them in the FanDuel section but Zach Ertz ($5,300) and Pat Freiermuth ($4,600) are also the top two values on DraftKings.

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