DFS Optimal Values, Locks and Fades: Week 14

Dec 10, 2021
DFS Optimal Values, Locks and Fades: Week 14

In this article, we walk through the process of constructing an optimal lineup that will dominate your cash games on the main slate of Week 14. We start with the optimal lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings determined by the Lineup Generator. Then, we identify the players that are irreplaceable and should be locked into your lineup. For the remaining players, we discuss the main alternatives that you can swap in to make a winning team that best fits your own style.

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FanDuel Week 14 Optimal Plays

Locks

UPDATE: With Elijah Mitchell ruled out the top running back options are Ekeler, Fournette and Javonte Williams

Potential Build

Austin Ekeler ($9,200) has at least 99 yards from scrimmage in three straight games. He's only topped 70 rushing yards one time this season but he has scored a touchdown in nine of 11 games. The Giants are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Leonard Fournette ($7,600) saves over $1,000 and has a similar profile to Ekeler. He's only had one 100-yard game this season but his usage in the passing game elevates his floor. He has at least six receptions in four straight games and trails only Jonathan Taylor in red zone carries. He also gets a Bills defense allowing the second-most rushing yards per game over the last three weeks. Josh Jacobs ($7,100) is a top-three value and has established a high floor since he's become a factor in the passing game. Jacobs has over 20 touches in consecutive games and is averaging six targets per game over the last five weeks. His ceiling is questionable though as he hasn't had 100 rushing yards in any game this season and the Chiefs rank sixth in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs.

Ja'Marr Chase ($7,200) has gone five straight games with under 60 receiving yards. Over that time though, he's still receiving 24% of the targets and 30% of the air yards. Chase stands out in our Breakout Receiver Model this week and Tee Higgins could miss this game or be limited. D.J. Moore ($6,800) has at least seven targets in every game this season and the Falcons defense is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. The Panthers' run-heavy offense may hold him back but Moore is receiving 29% of the targets and 44% of the air yards in the two games Cam Newton has started.

Locking in Moore and Chase is possible due to the value options from the Chargers passing game. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are accounting for nearly half the Chargers targets and 60% of the team's air yards. Their potential absence opens the door for Jaylen Guyton ($5,200) and Josh Palmer ($4,700) to step into big roles. It also doesn't hurt that the Giants defense is allowing the second-most passing yards per game when playing on the road.

UPDATE: Mike Evans and Jamison Crowder are the recommended options to pair with Moore with Ricky Seals -Jones at tight end.

DraftKings Week 14 Optimal Plays

Locks

UPDATE: With Elijah Mitchell out, Josh Jacobs and Antonio Gibson join Ekeler at running back.

Potential Build

In Taysom Hill's ($5,600) first start he rushed for over 100 yards and threw two touchdown passes. Granted, he also threw four interceptions. This week he gets the Jets who rank 31st in takeaways per game and have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Hill does have a finger injury so perhaps Cam Newton ($5,400) is a better option. Cam has just as good of a matchup against the Falcons who rank 28th in aFPA to quarterbacks. He should have a better grasp of the offense coming out of the bye and has a rushing touchdown in three straight games.

The running back values are very similar on both sites as Leonard Fournette ($7,400) and Josh Jacobs ($6,200) both pop here as well. It's interesting to see last week's breakout player Javonte Williams ($5,900) over Cordarelle Patterson on DraftKings though. It's hard to know how the touches will be divided if Melvin Gordon returns but Williams did receive nine targets last week. The concern is that Williams only has two rushing touchdowns all season.

George Kittle ($6,900) went nuclear on the Seahawks last week with 180 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He gets another good matchup this week against the Bengals who rank 24th in aFPA to tight ends. However, if it comes to paying down at receiver or paying down at tight end, I'm leaning towards the latter. While Jalen Guyton ($3,400) and Josh Palmer ($3,000) are our top values at receiver it could actually be Jared Cook ($3,200) who benefits the most. Cook has at least four targets in three straight games and would be the go-to option in the red zone if Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are out. The Giants defense is allowing the sixth-highest passing touchdown rate in the league.

The pay down to Cook would allow you to fit in our fourth best value Chris Godwin ($7,100). Godwin has at least five targets in every game and only has two games with under 55 receiving yards. The Buccaneers and Bills matchup has the highest over/under on the slate.

UPDATE: Mike Evans and Jamison Crowder are now the recommended options to pair with Moore

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