Breakout Receiver Model: Week 12

Nov 24, 2021
 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 12

The Breakout Receiver Model returns for Week 12 riding an all-time heater. Week 11 was one of the best in the model's young history, and we're feeling confident it's parsing through the historical data as effectively as ever as we round the corner to the end of the fantasy regular season. There are a ton of intriguing breakout recommendations to dig into this week.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.

Last Week's Results


Week 11 Breakout Receiver Model, Hits
Player Team Position XFP - Last 3 Week 11 XFP-Diff.
Darnell Mooney CHI WR 13.7 20.6 6.9
Davante Adams GB WR 13.2 27 13.8
Jaylen Waddle MIA WR 12.6 16.6 4
Darren Waller LV TE 12.3 15.1 2.8
Diontae Johnson PIT WR 11.5 19.6 8.1
A.J. Green ARI WR 9.1 9.8 0.7
Jamison Crowder NYJ WR 9 13.4 4.4
Dalton Schultz DAL TE 8.8 8.3 -0.5
D.J. Moore CAR WR 8.3 13.5 5.2
Adam Trautman NO TE 7 14.3 7.3
T.J. Hockenson DET TE 7 8.1 1.1
Zach Ertz ARI TE 6.2 24.8 18.6

Week 11 was a superb week for the model. We saw Davante Adams quickly break out of his slump, catching seven of his eight targets for 115 yards and two scores against the Vikings. Darnell Mooney was peppered with targets by backup quarterback Andy Dalton, and Zach Ertz was heavily targeted by the Cardinals’ Colt McCoy en route to the two other 20-plus fantasy point performances from last week’s cohort. On average, the Week 11 model players scored 99.5% of their expected fantasy points. Maybe most exciting, Cam Newton’s first start for the Panthers led to a fantastic game from star wideout D.J. Moore, though he got there via touchdowns, as he saw just seven targets and had under 60 yards receiving in the loss to Washington.


Week 11 Breakout Receiver Model, Misses
Player Team Position XFP - Last 3 Week 11 XFP-Diff.
Tyler Lockett SEA WR 16.5 13.5 -3
Tee Higgins CIN WR 13.3 2.5 -10.8
Ja'Marr Chase CIN WR 12.9 11.5 -1.4
Mike Gesicki MIA TE 12.2 7.5 -4.7
Kyle Pitts ATL TE 11.8 4.4 -7.4
Cole Kmet CHI TE 11.5 1.7 -9.8
Emmanuel Sanders BUF WR 10.9 4.1 -6.8
Marvin Jones JAX WR 10.7 7.2 -3.5
Zach Pascal IND WR 10.4 0.9 -9.5
Zay Jones LV WR 9.8 2.5 -7.3
T.Y. Hilton IND WR 8.7 3.6 -5.1
Keelan Cole NYJ WR 8.3 0 -8.3
Mo Alie-Cox IND TE 6.1 0 -6.1

Tee Higgins scored 10.8 fantasy points below expectation, a back-breaker for those who saw him as a solid cash game play last weekend. Tyler Lockett had a reasonable 13.5 fantasy points, but that number still falls well short of his 16.5 expected fantasy points per game over the last three weeks. In that same game, Zay Jones was nearly non-existent in the Raiders’ disappointing loss to the Bengals. And while Jonathan Taylor’s all-time great performance in Week 11 was exciting for his fantasy managers, his scoring came at the expense of the passing attack, as all three of Zach Pascal, T.Y. Hilton, and Mo Alie-Cox failed to meet expectations, scoring a combined 20.7 points below expectation.

Breakout Receiver Model Recommendations

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