Week 11 PrizePicks Props
Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost. More information on rules can be found here.
Do not forget to check out the 4for4 PrizePicks tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Week 10 Record: 4-3
Season Record: 45-29
Not the best week but a few picks could have gone either way. Week 10 was wild for player points and yardage totals.
Week 11 Picks
Marcus Johnson Over 6.0 Fantasy Points
- 4for4 Projection: 9.5
Julio Jones who? Marcus Johnson had his best game since Week 6 of 2020 last week and gets to do his best to replicate it against a mediocre Texans defense. The Texans allow an average of 173.22 yards per game to opposing wideouts, and the Titans are low on trustworthy receivers. A.J. Brown will continue to be the focal point of opposing defenses, allowing Johnson to use his size as the secondary receiver. Johnson has five or more targets in three of six games played this season.
Dalvin Cook Over 78.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 95.9
The Green Bay Packers have only allowed two running backs to top 78 rushing yards, with one of them being in the same class of back as Dalvin Cook (Alvin Kamara). Since returning from injury, Cook has topped 78 yards rushing in three of four games. That one game he didn't? Cook hit 78 rushing yards exactly. The Vikings are playing some of their best football of the season, just in time to potentially cut Green Bay’s lead over them in the NFC North in large part to Cook’s production.
David Johnson Over 10.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 21.5
I know the Texans' offense is embarrassing and David Johnson is nowhere near the player he once was, but this line is bad. As long as David Johnson has carried the ball three times in a game (six-of-nine games), he is more than likely to top 10 yards (five instances). Put some ‘spect on his name!
David Montgomery Over 49.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 78.4
Speaking of respect, PrizePicks is too low on David Montgomery. The Bears lead back has hit 50 yards in four-of-five games played, including his first game back in Week 9 after missing four games because of a knee injury. The Ravens have allowed five backs to top 50 yards with all of them doing so since Week 4. Montgomery’s workload is also secure. Backup Khalil Herbert only saw four carries to Montgomery’s 13 in Week 9.
George Kittle Over 4.5 Receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 5.6
George Kittle will be the best tight end the Jacksonville Jaguars have faced to this point. That is not good for the Jags considering they have allowed blow-up spots to Mike Gesicki, C.J. Uzomah and they also made Pharaoh Brown relevant for one week. Kittle has 11 receptions since returning from I.R. and is averaging five receptions per game this season. With injuries once again hurting the 49ers' backfield, Kittle could be leaned on alongside Deebo Samuel before allowing the healthy RBs to salt the game away.
Michael Carter Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 38.1
I am sensing a theme this week...
Michael Carter has accumulated 20+ receiving yards in five straight games and in six-of-nine contests. Miami's defense has allowed eight running backs to reach 20 receiving yards, including two in the same game. Carter is a popular play in fantasy formats and if you want to double down on your Carter appreciation, hit the over.
Aaron Rodgers Under 255.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 273.1
The Packers will be without Aaron Jones this week so the expectation would be for Aaron Rodgers to target more pass-catchers downfield, right? I am not sure. The Vikings defense is middle-of-the-road against running backs and A.J. Dillon made it clear in Week 10 he can handle a starter’s workload. Jones was Rodgers’s second-best receiving option, so who can he trust to pass to? The Vikings have allowed five quarterbacks to surpass 255 passing yards, with Lamar Jackson needing a full overtime to do so. Without out trustworthy pass-catchers and wanting to keep Dalvin Cook and company off the field, I expect the Packers to feature Dillon and let Rodgers fill in the gaps through the air.