Week 14 NFL Betting Picks: Game and Team Totals
Scoring was way up over the season's first three weeks and overs were the only play. As is always the case, these things flatten out over the course of an NFL season as books adjust to teams and trends on the field. Even so, I've continued to target overs in this space and have four more for you this week, focusing on mispriced team totals whenever possible.
After a 3-0 Week 13, I'm 34-24-1 here on the season, good for a profitable 58% clip. Let's build on that this week.
Also, please make sure to join our discord if you haven't yet. Our 4for4 community is a smart and engaging group, and there's something for everyone in there. I'm sharing plays there throughout the week if I think the line is going to drastically change, and Connor Allen is in there often discussing props and the best way to approach that market as it emerges each week.
Let's dig into this week's picks.
Jacksonville Jaguars - Over 22.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Where can I buy a 'Let Mike Glennon Cook' shirt? Anybody?
Spare me the 'small sample' jargon, Jacksonville's offense has looked drastically different with Mike Glennon under center. They're 11th in EPA per play, ninth in success rate, and 10th in explosive play rate the past two weeks against Cleveland and Minnesota. ETR's Evan Silva noted that Glennon is throwing 20-yards or more on 21% of his attempts, the second-highest rate over the past two weeks. Given their aggressive play-calling and success in doing so, the Jaguars are undervalued in the market right now.
OK, it's a small sample, but the Titans haven't slowed anyone down all season and I don't expect they'll suddenly start this week. Tennessee is 29th in EPA per play allowed, and 32nd in passing success rate allowed on the season. I think the Titans move the ball up and down the field on the Jaguars too, but my lean is on Jacksonville and the points in this game, so isolating the Jaguars team total allows me to get in on this game at the lowest point of entry.
Dallas Cowboys - Over 22.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Andy Dalton-led Cowboys appeared lucid against Baltimore in Week 13, at least the first 40 or so minutes, an encouraging sign against one of the league's top defenses. Things get easier this week because the Bengals' defense provides a soft landing for Dalton in his return to Cincinnati. Dallas' season has been marred by injuries, not only to Dak Prescott but also to the offensive line. Cincinnati's anemic pass rush is the worst in the league, dead-last in both pressure rate and adjusted sack rate on the season.
Despite their recent woes, the Cowboys still roll out one of the league's best pass-catching units, and the Red Riffle will be looking to show out against his old squad. Similar to the Jaguars pick, I like getting on the right side of 23, a key number for team totals.
Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears - Over 46 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Deshaun Watson and the Texans' offense has exploded since Bill O'Brien was let go in Week 5. Since that point, only Patrick Mahomes has a higher EPA per dropback than Watson. It's fair to wonder about Houston's upside down the stretch with Will Fuller removed from the lineup, but Watson is playing at a level where his performance is elevating anyone around him. Also, this matchup against the Bears is better than you think.
The Bears have lost six straight games and their defense ranks 28th in EPA per play allowed over that time frame. Chicago has struggled to pressure opposing quarterback's all season long, and it's difficult to sustain outlier defensive performances when your secondary is league average and your front seven ranks 29th in pressure rate created. The Lions, without Kenny Golladay and D'Andre Swift, just dropped 34 on Chicago last week.
The Texans' defense is even worse, dead-last in yards per drive allowed, and Mitch Trubisky's return has been an upgrade to what Nick Foles was providing. Allen Robinson should feast against the Texans' secondary with Bradley Roby out of the lineup, and Chicago's ancillary weapons like David Montgomery, Anthony Miller, and Cole Kmet have played well the past few weeks.
I'm really surprised that this number hasn't moved to 47 or 48 this week.
Indianapolis Colts - Over 26.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Raiders are reeling right now. They went to Atlanta and got boat-raced by a Julio Jones-less Falcons club, and then to New York last week where they tried their hardest to give the Jets their first win of the season. They've over-performed at times offensively this season which has kept them in a lot of games, but at no point has their defense been a strong unit. They're 31st in points per drive allowed, supported by their 30th ranked adjusted sack rate.
The Colts' offensive line has protected many-times-over dad-runner Philip Rivers all season, allowing the third-lowest pressure rate in the league, and Rivers has exceeded my expectations this season. Typically incorporating 10-12 different players into the offense in a given week, head coach Frank Reich is an elite play-caller and knows how to set up his players to win. Again on the right side of a key number, getting this at 26.5 is an exceptional play.