NBA Best Bets: A Sensational Sunday Slate

Mar 21, 2021

4for4 Illustrations

Well, I hope you haven’t forgotten about the little ol’ NBA, but, even if you did, the Association continues to roll on despite all this “madness” in the world. We have a big Sunday slate with a few early games and a fun nightcap. Let’s take a break from all that’s happening in Indiana and go through the day’s games to find some value in the betting markets. Also, if you didn't know, we have an NBA Player Prop Tool that identifies the highest-value props in the NBA every night.

Projections for March 21, 2021

				Projections Based on Last 10 Games									Baseline Projections									Odds			ROI Season to Date
	Road Streak	Back to Back?	3rd Game in 4 Days?	Offensive Rating	Pace	Team	Spread & Total	EFG%	TO%	OREB%	FT Rate	Oliver %	OFF Rtg	Pace	Team	Spread & Total	EFG%	TO%	OREB%	FT Rate	Oliver %	Spread	Total	Team Total	Opener Spread Units	Closer Spread Units	Opener Over Units	Closer Over Units
IND	1	No	No	108.86	102.63	111.72	(0.64)	54.2%	12.4%	45.3%	18.3%	36.6%	108.30	102.20	110.69	0.03	53.9%	12.6%	43.0%	18.3%	36.0%	5	217	106	(10.36)	(9.45)	11.55	6.82
MIA	0	No	No	109.67	101.28	111.07	222.79	53.8%	13.3%	48.5%	21.5%	37.8%	109.64	100.98	110.71	221.40	54.0%	13.3%	45.3%	21.7%	37.2%			111	(4.73)	(7.64)	(10.45)	(5.73)
OKC	2	No	No	102.20	101.54	103.77	3.60	48.7%	10.7%	47.6%	16.8%	34.2%	100.91	101.47	102.40	5.84	48.2%	10.9%	44.9%	16.2%	33.4%	4	217	106.5	1.00	1.00	(4.73)	(4.64)
HOU	0	No	No	103.99	103.25	107.37	211.15	54.0%	13.4%	46.2%	16.8%	36.7%	104.99	103.08	108.23	210.63	54.4%	13.4%	43.5%	16.7%	36.3%			110.5	(16.18)	(15.18)	(10.45)	(11.36)
NOP	2	No	No	110.55	102.81	113.65	2.59	54.4%	12.1%	49.9%	18.5%	37.6%	110.70	102.33	113.28	2.71	54.6%	12.4%	47.1%	19.1%	37.2%	5.5	234	114.25	(5.64)	(6.64)	14.36	13.45
DEN	0	No	No	114.40	101.61	116.24	229.89	56.4%	11.4%	49.1%	18.5%	38.0%	114.35	101.44	115.99	229.27	56.6%	11.6%	45.9%	18.8%	37.5%			119.75	(3.82)	(5.73)	3.82	6.73
ORL	0	No	Yes	110.35	99.28	109.55	1.48	54.2%	12.3%	47.3%	18.6%	37.0%	108.50	99.54	108.00	2.93	52.9%	12.1%	44.9%	18.7%	36.0%	8.5	216.5	104	(4.73)	(1.82)	(8.55)	(3.73)
BOS	0	No	No	111.59	99.50	111.04	220.59	55.1%	10.3%	52.7%	16.3%	37.6%	111.29	99.67	110.92	218.92	55.3%	11.2%	49.6%	17.2%	37.4%			112.5	(6.64)	(6.64)	1.00	1.00
WAS	0	No	No	106.79	105.76	112.94	4.49	53.0%	12.0%	45.5%	21.4%	36.5%	106.04	105.38	111.75	5.19	52.4%	12.0%	43.3%	20.5%	35.7%	8.5	246.5	119	(1.82)	(1.82)	0.09	0.09
BKN	2	No	No	114.19	102.84	117.43	230.37	56.9%	12.0%	45.8%	20.2%	37.9%	113.73	102.82	116.94	228.68	56.8%	12.3%	43.4%	20.8%	37.6%			127.5	-	-	6.73	11.45
CHI	1	No	No	102.48	99.72	102.19	4.55	51.6%	13.7%	47.4%	15.9%	35.9%	104.85	101.47	106.46	0.74	52.6%	13.5%	43.9%	17.8%	35.8%	-3	217.5	110.25	3.91	3.00	0.09	0.09
DET	1	No	No	108.01	98.83	106.74	208.93	53.1%	11.5%	51.4%	19.7%	37.4%	107.04	100.18	107.21	213.67	53.1%	12.5%	47.5%	20.8%	37.0%			107.25	2.00	3.00	(5.64)	(4.73)
TOR	0	No	No	110.33	98.78	108.98	3.86	54.9%	12.0%	42.0%	21.2%	36.6%	110.74	99.95	110.69	1.35	54.9%	11.9%	40.9%	20.7%	36.2%	-7.5	218	112.75	(4.73)	(4.73)	(2.82)	2.00
CLE	0	No	No	113.74	99.21	112.85	221.83	55.8%	14.7%	45.5%	29.0%	39.4%	112.23	99.84	112.04	222.73	55.4%	14.7%	44.5%	26.9%	38.8%			105.25	(6.64)	(10.45)	(2.82)	(7.55)
PHI	0	No	No	109.67	102.17	112.05	(6.30)	55.0%	12.8%	50.3%	19.9%	38.2%	108.39	102.12	110.69	(1.25)	53.6%	12.5%	47.7%	20.3%	37.2%	-1	215.5	108.25	(1.91)	4.82	(4.73)	-
NYK	0	No	No	104.83	100.88	105.75	217.80	52.6%	13.2%	47.6%	18.0%	36.5%	108.45	100.91	109.44	220.13	54.1%	13.1%	44.5%	20.3%	36.9%			107.25	2.91	3.82	(9.55)	(10.45)
LAL	0	No	No	114.54	99.33	113.77	6.75	56.1%	12.2%	55.2%	15.3%	38.8%	114.82	98.92	113.58	6.39	56.0%	11.9%	52.6%	15.6%	38.2%	9.5	213.5	102	(1.91)	-	(9.55)	(10.45)
PHX	0	No	Yes	118.77	101.47	120.52	234.29	62.2%	13.5%	46.7%	18.7%	40.4%	119.20	100.65	119.97	233.55	62.1%	13.4%	44.4%	18.6%	39.9%			111.5	9.64	10.64	(3.73)	(1.82)
DAL	1	No	No	116.09	96.53	112.06	(0.30)	58.9%	12.4%	46.7%	16.5%	38.5%	114.36	97.86	111.89	0.72	57.3%	11.9%	44.2%	17.3%	37.3%	-2.5	231	116.75	(6.64)	(6.64)	(4.73)	(4.73)
POR	0	No	Yes	114.91	97.26	111.76	223.83	55.0%	10.7%	47.7%	20.4%	37.3%	114.66	98.21	112.60	224.49	54.6%	10.6%	45.0%	20.5%	36.6%			114.25	0.09	-	(1.91)	3.82

LEGEND

EFG% (Effective Field Goal Percentage)= (FG + 0.5 * 3P)/FGA
TOV% (Turnover Percentage) = TOV/(FGA + 0.44 * FTA + TOV)
OREB% = ORB / (ORB + Opp DRB)
FT Rate = FT/FGA
Oliver % = Shooting (40%) + Turnovers (25%) + Rebounding (20%) + Free Throws (15%)

Best NBA Bets of the Day (March 21, 2021)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets First Half Under 111 Points

Oklahoma City will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Al Horford and Darius Bazley. This means we’re going to see a lot of Theo Maledon and Kenrich Williams. Don’t feel bad if you don’t recognize those names, because I had to double-check them myself. The Rockets are missing Eric Gordon, but it appears everyone else is healthy enough to take the floor tonight.

Oklahoma City is playing a largely G League quality roster and Houston has lost their last 19 games. I expect the Rockets to end that streak and win this game. Victor Oladipo, John Wall and Christian Wood should be more than enough to beat the Thunder but I’m hesitant to wager on a team that looks to be actively tanking and whose players have spent little time on the court together.

Instead, let’s attack the total. You’ll see above that my projections like the under here, but I think the first half under is a better angle. This game will start at 1:00 p.m. local time—much earlier than normal. These time slots have been very profitable for first half unders. I’m also concerned we could have a blowout on our hands in the second half—a nightmare for an under bet. With all the roster flux and the early start time, betting the first half under is the way to go.

Risk: 1.1 units on Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets First Half Under 111 Points on FanDuel to win 1 unit.

Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 vs. Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have a clean injury sheet for the first time in a while. Several players had been out for quarantine, but returned in the last game or earlier. Kevin Love and Andre Drummond continue to miss games for Cleveland. JaVale McGee is questionable which makes the Cavaliers thin at center, but Jarrett Allen will still start and hopefully see extended minutes. Also, Toronto lacks a great big man of their own, mitigating that concern.

Toronto has lost seven games in a row and are starting a two-game road trip in which they’ll be sizable favorites in both matchups. The Raptors' roster recovery will help turn things around and they are deserving favorites against Cleveland, but not by this much. My projection above has the game less than two, but I would set the number at four with Toronto having everyone available. The Cavaliers have been much better at home this season and are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games in Cleveland. The return of Darius Garland makes a big difference on both ends of the floor taking pressure off Collin Sexton. He’ll be especially helpful against a team with such strong guards. Let’s grab the points with Cleveland.

Risk: 1.1 units on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

Quick Slate Rundown (March 21, 2021)

*All lines are from FanDuel at the time of publication.

Indiana Pacers +5 at Miami Heat

The Pacers smoked the Heat 137-110 on Friday. My projections like Indiana, but the Heat should be in a bounce-back spot and who knows what the Pacers did on their night in Miami yesterday. This is another 1:00 p.m. local start time game, so I’m also disregarding my projections, like of the over.

New Orleans Pelicans +5.5 at Denver Nuggets

The Pelicans are one of the hardest teams to handicap. They lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points and then beat the Los Angeles Clippers 20 points three days later. My projections say Pelicans and the under, but those both seem like bad ideas.

Orlando Magic +8.5 at Boston Celtics

Orlando has Aaron Gordon back, but the Celtics are still the superior team despite what my numbers are projecting. I did think about backing the Magic, but ultimately passed given how little Orlando can do to stop Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Washington Wizards +8.5 at Brooklyn Nets

My projections pretty much always say Nets under and bet whoever is playing the Nets, but I’m disregarding that until further notice. Brooklyn has been a tough team to pin down every night with their ability to put up a huge number in any quarter.

Chicago Bulls -3 at Detroit Pistons

The Bulls have struggled the last few weeks or else I’d lay the small number. Detroit has been a profitable team against the spread this year and matches up well against Chicago. I’m passing.

Philadelphia 76ers -1 at New York Knicks

Joel Embiid is out and Ben Simmons is questionable. This line leads me to believe Simmons is out or else I’d be all over the 76ers in this spot. The Knicks are still without Derrick Rose and Mitchell Robinson and are generally the inferior roster. Even with Simmons out, Philadelphia is still my pick to win, but not worthy of a wager.

Los Angeles Lakers +9.5 at Phoenix Suns

LeBron James sprained his ankle last night and Anthony Davis is still out indefinitely. The Suns have been a great team at home and should have no trouble with a starless Lakers team on a back-to-back, but I’m not laying the points. The market often overreacts to the first game after an injury to a star and there is value on that side.

Dallas Mavericks -2.5 at Portland Trail Blazers

Dallas continues to be a great team for three quarters and an awful team in the fourth quarter. Tonight they face a very good fourth-quarter team. Look to bet the Trail Blazers live if they’re down heading into the fourth, but nothing stands out pre-game.

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter or subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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