Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 13 Targets
The Thanksgiving slate is one of the year’s best.
Family events and time off of work give the fantasy community much needed time off as we continue to learn more about our players. But, there’s no time to rest. Our priors have been constantly challenged on the eve of the fantasy playoffs and it’s critical that we continue to adjust our expectations. Think about what’s changed over the course of the season. The Patriots opened Week 2 with Julian Edelman, Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon, and Phillip Dorsett as their starting receiver group. In Week 12, that same group has been reduced to Julian Edelman, Jakobi Meyers, N’Keal Harry, and Matthew Slater. Look at the Browns. After a horrific stretch of poor defensive matchups, Baker Mayfield has finished as a QB1 in two straight weeks lifting the values of Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham. So to add to our fill of Thanksgiving food, we’ll continue to digest the injury and matchup news with as the fantasy playoffs begin for some leagues.
Luckily, the Thursday slate only features two quarterbacks who are viable streamers: Jeff Driskel and Mitchell Trubisky. While Trubisky just finished as the QB9 in Week 12 and Driskel finished as the QB5 in Week 11, their matchup features the second-lowest game total on the slate scheduled to start at noon less than four days from when each team last played. The process has taken us to games later in the slate giving us time to prepare and monitor injury reports as the week progresses. So as the holiday festivities commence, let’s dive into the news from the past week and look to the week ahead.
Week 12 Review
One positive performance followed by multiple middling results. The majority of the recommendations at least provided a floor, but we’re always looking for a ceiling. Here’s how the scores ended up with key takeaways below:
- Sam Darnold – 28.2 points (QB3)
- Nick Foles – 14.9 points (QB13)
- Jeff Driskel – 12.6 points (QB16)
- Jacoby Brissett – 13.16 points (QB15)
Sam Darnold continues to progress and impress. More option-read plays. More intermediate passing. Fewer lapses in passing mechanics. It’s truly remarkable seeing such a turnaround with a pedestrian group of pass-catchers and an offensive line ranked at the bottom of the league. We’ll continue to ride this train until the wheels fall off as both the quarterback and head coach appear to be in synch with positive matchups ahead of them.
Ryan Tannehill’s matchup was a clear miss. At home against Jacksonville coming off a bye had all the makings of a viable streamer. The process should have led us there. Leonard Fournette’s positive touchdown regression came all in a single game limited Foles’ upside. Driskel scored 12.6 points despite throwing 3 interceptions. Turnovers and pace of play limited the upside for most of the recommendations. Results will be integrated into the process as we evaluate the Week 13 slate.
Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed
Next, let’s visit 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed as we head into the playoff portion of the season. The bye weeks are finally over, but injuries, coaching changes, and lost seasons have now started to play a role. Season-long priors must be compared to recent trends, but we can at least use them as a starting point for evaluating matchups. Notable rankings for defensive units include:
- LAR down 6 spots to #20 (18.0 aFPA)
- GB down 5 spots to #16 (16.9 aFPA)
- CAR down 4 spots to #9 (13.3 aFPA)
- SEA up 4 spots to #12 (15.0 aFPA)
- WAS up 7 spots to #15 (15.4 aFPA)
- DAL up 9 spots to #6 (13.1 aFPA)
Key Defensive Injuries
Finally, we’ll review injuries along with the guidelines that will be used each week to find viable options on the waiver wire:
- Only quarterbacks with no more than a 50% ownership in Yahoo leagues considered.
- Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
- Positive matchups for all pass catchers to be considered.
- 4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.
Dontari Poe (Panthers, Knee) – The Panthers’ starting defensive tackle was injured in the first half of their contest against the Saints. At the time, Alvin Kamara had been kept in check as both a runner and receiver. Afterward, both the running and passing game opened up leading the last-minute win for New Orleans. Poe was seen using crutches after the game leaving his Week 13 status in question. Carolina (13.3 aFPA) has a comparatively easier opponent next week against Washington, but their defensive front will certainly miss their star player if he’s forced to sit.
Ryan Kerrigan (Washington, Concussion) – Kerrigan has been active for every game since he was drafted in 2011. While his flawless record hasn’t matched the defense’s performance (15.4 aFPA), defensive continuity has helped stabilize a once competitive squad. He was forced to leave their Week 12 matchup against the Lions in the 4th quarter with a concussion and didn’t return. He’ll have the week to recover ahead of their matchup against the Panthers in Week 13.
Other Notable Injuries: Ken Crawley (Dolphins, Shoulder), Josey Jewell (Broncos, Ankle), Ryan Anderson (Washington, Stinger), Fabian Moreau (Washington, Stinger), Sherrick McManis (Bears, Groin), Beau Allen (Buccaneers, Stinger)
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