Streaming Defenses: Week 13 Targets

Nov 26, 2019
Streaming Defenses: Week 13 Targets

As discussed previously, we are rolling out a new-and-improved model this season for projecting fantasy defenses. This model focuses on the most predictable elements of defense scoring: points allowed, sacks and interceptions. To project points in each of those areas, we rely on the Vegas lines, quarterback history of interceptions and the offensive and defense history of producing sacks. Below, we will look at what those elements say for Week 13.

Other Week 13 Streaming Articles: QB | TE | K

Looking Backward

The forecasts for our picks last week were shockingly accurate.

We projected the Browns, our top pick, to score 8.12 points from the predictable elements. They scored eight. While they allowed more points than Vegas expected, they had one more interception than we forecasted, to balance the results out. Overall, we got the high score that we expected when playing the Dolphins.

Our next pick, the Lions, scored six points, as close as possible to their projected score of 6.12 points. This projection was especially good with all three predictable elements being extremely close to the actual values.

Our only underperformer was the third pick (as usual, the one with the lowest projection was the one to miss). The Titans crushed the Jaguars; however, that was mainly on offense. The defense still allowed 20 points and had no interceptions. They ended up with four points from the predictable element, a bit less than the 5.37 that we projected.

Week 13 Projections

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