4 Fantasy Football TEs Whose Touchdowns Are Trending Up & Down
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In this third installment of the touchdown trends series here at 4for4, we'll be taking a look at the tight end position. As always, the data is just that. Data. And interpreting it isn't a perfect science ... but there is usually merit in the investigation, if evaluated correctly. In last year's column, for example, Trey McBride and T.J. Hockenson both scored more in 2025 than they had in 2024 — with McBride jumping from two scores to 11 (tied for most at the position). Mark Andrews was also an accurate regression call, as he dropped from 11 scores to five, while Tucker Kraft was on pace to improve his touchdown total before injury.
More Outlier TD Pieces: QB | RB | WR
Once again, similar to the WR article, the strategy is to evaluate touchdown rates (per target) from various field positions and to spotlight the outlier players on both sides of the sample. Here's a look at the data from the last ten years to set a baseline.
| Line of Scrimmage | TD Rate, Targets |
|---|---|
| Ten Zone (Opponent 1-10) | 42.10% |
| Red Zone (Opponent 1-19) | 29.80% |
| Opponent Territory (Opponent 1-49) | 12.10% |
| Midfield Plus (Own 1 - Midfield) | 0.22% |
| Total | 5.40% |
With all this math in mind, here are four names to note coming off last season's results and heading into 2026 fantasy drafts.
Which Tight Ends Should Score More in 2026?
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts
- 2025 Expected TDs - 6.0
- 2025 Actual TDs - 4
- TDs Below Expectation - 2.0
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