2026 Fantasy Football Projections - Standard - QB

Allen is the safest pick at the quarterback position, and it's not particularly close. He's finished QB1 and QB2 the last two seasons while playing all 34 games, and his consistency is remarkable—he's scored 20-plus fantasy points in 59% of games over that stretch with only four games below 10. His 2025 efficiency was elite: 93rd percentile in EPA per dropback and 87th percentile in CPOE, and the rushing remains the league's best fantasy cheat code at the position. Allen averaged 37.4 rushing yards per start with 14 rushing touchdowns last season. That's a RB2 season's worth of rushing touchdowns on top of 25 passing touchdowns, and it’s his third consecutive season with at least 12 rushing touchdowns. The Bills added D.J. Moore to a receiving corps that already includes Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid, giving Allen arguably his deepest set of pass-catchers since Stefon Diggs was in Buffalo. He's going as the QB1 off the board with an overall ADP around pick 30, and that's the right price. The only question is whether you want to spend that draft capital on a quarterback when you could wait and get a value QB significantly later. But if you want the highest floor and the highest ceiling at the position, Allen is the pick. If the draft gets weird and the available options in the third round aren’t too appealing, then Allen is an extremely safe pick.

When Burrow is on the field, he's one of the best fantasy quarterbacks in football. He finished QB3 in 2024 at 22.5 points per game—his second top-four finish in three seasons—and was dominant down the stretch, averaging 26.4 points per game in the second half. His 2025 was derailed by injury yet again: he played just seven games, though his accuracy upon return was outstanding—91st percentile in CPOE and 73rd percentile in EPA per dropback. In the five games after coming back from his midseason absence (Weeks 13–17), he averaged 19.5 points per game, suggesting the arm talent was still very much intact. The problem is that the arm talent has never been the question. Burrow has missed 16 games over the last three seasons, and that kind of volatility is difficult to build a roster around, especially at a QB3 ADP. The rushing offers almost nothing—5.1 yards per game last season, 11.8 in 2024, 8.8 in 2023—so he's mostly pass-dependent, which makes him more vulnerable to bad game scripts and low-volume weeks than the dual-threat quarterbacks going around him. On the other hand, Ja'Marr Chase is the best receiver in fantasy football, Tee Higgins gives him an elite second option, and the Bengals' defense has a way of keeping Burrow in high-volume passing situations. At QB3, the ceiling is there—he's finished top four twice in four full seasons—but you're paying a premium that doesn't account for the very real chance he misses a month.

Hurts has been one of the most bankable fantasy quarterbacks in football, finishing QB6 and QB7 the last two seasons while playing nearly every game. His per-game average dipped from 21.0 to 18.7 points last year, but the rushing production continued to anchor his floor—26.3 yards per game with eight rushing touchdowns. His accuracy was strong (82nd percentile in CPOE) and the efficiency was solid (67th percentile in EPA per dropback), though the second half of last season was uneven, as he averaged 21.7 points in the first eight games and 15.7 the rest of the way. The big question heading into 2026 is the receiving corps. A.J. Brown is gone, though the Eagles moved up in the first round to nab Makai Lemon and added Dontayvion Wicks and Hollywood Brown. DeVonta Smith is more than capable of stepping into the WR1 role and Dallas Goedert provides a reliable safety valve. Hurts offers solid value at QB7.

Prescott had a strong bounce-back season in 2025, finishing QB5 at 19.6 points per game after an injury-shortened QB31 the year before. His efficiency was excellent—89th percentile in EPA per dropback and 76th percentile in CPOE—and he was remarkably steady, averaging 19.2 points per game in the first half and 20.0 in the second. Nine of 16 games went over 20 points, and he only dipped below 10 twice. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens give him two legitimate weapons on the outside, Jake Ferguson is a reliable tight end, and Brian Schottenheimer runs a pass-heavy offense that keeps Prescott in high-volume situations all season. The only structural concern is the lack of rushing—11.1 yards per start and two touchdowns last year—which makes him entirely dependent on passing volume and touchdown rate, both of which can fluctuate. He's going as a midrange QB1 for a player who finished QB5 last year and QB4 in 2023. The Cowboys are going to throw the football, and when they do, he's likely to be efficient.

Herbert has settled into low-end QB1 territory, finishing QB13 and QB9 the last two seasons. His passing efficiency was middling last year—53rd percentile in EPA per dropback, 60th percentile in CPOE—but the big story was his legs. Herbert rushed for a career-high 498 yards (31.1 per game) and two touchdowns, and wants to keep running. That's meaningful for his fantasy outlook because the rushing floor is what separates the elite fantasy quarterbacks from the pack. The Chargers have a solid receiving corps with Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and second-year players Tre Harris and Oronde Gadsden, and they added Brenan Thompson in this year's draft and David Njoku late in free agency. Mike McDaniel will be calling the plays, and has said that he would like Herbert to get the ball out more quickly and not have so much on his shoulders. Reading between the lines, this sounds like less running to me, but Herbert will still need to scramble and will pick his spots to use his legs. Where I think McDaniel can really help is Herbert’s efficiency. Herbert averaged 7.3 yards per attempt last season and has a career 7.2 YPA. McDaniel took over the Dolphins’ offense in 2022 and took Tua Tagovailoa from a career-to-date 6.6 YPA to 8.9 YPA in his first season. I’m not expecting that sort of leap for Herbert, but he could be a lot more productive as a passer under McDaniel, and that could offset a loss of rushing production.