Chalkboard Week 10 Player Prop Bets Article
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Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space below to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.
Week 9 Recap
Week 9 was my lowest volume week this season, with only three official releases: Jonnu Smith over 22.5 receiving yards, Joe Flacco over 34.5 pass attempts, and Dalton Schultz under 36.5 receiving yards. There were four teams on a bye week, and overall, I felt the board was pretty efficient this week, which is why I probably had the lowest volume of all this season. The Bengals/Bears game combined for 89 total points, and the Bengals are an every-week shootout candidate, which is amazing for Joe Flacco to get off a ton of pass attempts, which is what happened on Sunday, and Flacco went over 34.5. The Steelers shockingly controlled the entire game and were not forced into throwing the football. However, when Rodgers did throw, he did exactly as I had thought he would, a lot of checkdowns (3.3 aDOT), and a few went to Jonnu, which is why he went over 22.5 receiving yards. Schultz led the team in yards and had eight targets. Schultz under 36.5 receiving yards is a bet I'd want back.
Week 10 Bets
Tre Tucker OVER 3.5 Receptions
Tucker has played one game this season without Meyers, and that was against Kansas City in Week 7. In that game, the Raiders ran a historically low number of plays, and they only threw the ball 18 times. Of those 18 pass attempts, Tucker saw a team high six targets and caught five balls. Brock Bowers also missed the Week 7 game, but with Meyers gone, Tucker will step into the featured WR role, and he virtually has no target competition with the WRs behind him being Jack Bech, Donte Thornton, and Tyler Lockett. The Raiders are 8.5-point underdogs and should be forced to throw a lot, giving Tucker more opportunities in the pass game.
Drake Maye OVER 29.5 Pass Attempts
Maye has attempted 30+ passes in only two of his nine starts, but the only two games he threw 30+ came against the only two opponents he's faced with an above .500 record (Buffalo and Pittsburgh). Tampa's offense coming off a bye should push this Patriots offense more than they have been pushed pretty much all year, and Tampa's defense ranks 5th in run defense DVOA, which should hamper the Patriots' rushing offense and force Maye to beat them with his arm, which is why Tampa's D ranks 6th in PROE allowed.
Kimani Vidal UNDER 61.5 Rushing Yards
Vidal ran extremely well versus Minnesota two weeks ago and seemed to take over the backfield, rushing 23 times. The backfield split changed this week, though. Vidal handled 12 of the 21 RB carries, and Jaret Patterson handled the other nine carries. Assuming a somewhat similar split in the future between the two backs, this Vidal line is just too high. Pittsburgh's defense is coming off a gem performance against the juggernaut of an offense in Indianapolis, and held JT to a season low 3.2 yards per carry. Opposing offenses rank third in PROE when facing the Steelers' defense, and I expect the Chargers, who rank third in PROE, to stick to their guns and throw a lot in this matchup instead of leaning on their run game.
Justin Fields UNDER 180.5 Passing Yards
Fields has struggled mightily against the two decent defenses he has faced in Buffalo (27 yards on 3 completions through 3 quarters) and Denver (45 yards on 9 completions). He was going to be fully benched after struggling again against Carolina, but a Tyrod Taylor injury forced him to start against the Bengals. He unsurprisingly played well against the worst defense in the league, but now gets the Browns. The Jets sold their two best players at the deadline and seem to know Fields is not the long-term answer at QB. There is legit in-game benching risk here and the Browns defense has played well this season. They have already held Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, and Tua under a super low number of 180 passing yards, and Fields has a better chance to be one of their waterboys next season than outperform them. The Browns get a good bit of pressure, and Fields is completing just 48% of his passes for 4.7 yards per attempt against pressure.
Jauan Jennings OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards
Jennings had a combined 21 targets last season in his two games versus the Rams and posted a preposterous 175 yards and 3 TDs in one of those games. Jennings came into the season banged up and missed two games (Weeks 3 and 5). Jennings appears to be closer to full strength health-wise and has a 0.24 TPRR over the last three weeks. With Mac Jones at QB in 2025, the 49ers PROE is 3.2% and with Purdy at QB, it is -2.4%. For whatever reason, Shanahan has no problem dropping Mac Jones back to pass even more than Purdy, despite Mac being the backup. This is also a favorable CB/WR matchup for Jennings, as both Forbes and Durant are very mediocre. The Rams defense is also one of eight teams allowing less than four yards per carry and the 49ers' rushing offense has already struggled as CMC is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry, if the 49ers want to hang in and win this thing it will have to come from Mac Jones' arm which he's already thrown for 345 yards against LA just a few weeks back.
Bam Knight UNDER 31.5 Rushing Yards
Bam surprisingly lost his lead back role to Demercado, who, a few weeks ago, was getting ripped a new one by HC Gannon for dropping the ball on the 1-yard line. Demercado saw the first carry of the game and the last four carries of the game and ran much better than Bam. Demercado appears to be the preferred back on the ground going forward for Arizona. Seattle's defense is allowing the league's lowest yards per carry, at only 3.5 yards, and unsurprisingly ranks second in run defense DVOA. This is a miserable matchup for Bam, and with the way Demercado ran, the carry split between the two may widen even more in favor of Demercado.
My NFL Results Through Week 9:
33-28, +$99
1.35% ROI
Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop
My NBA Results This Season:
21-14, +$487
12.16% ROI
Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop
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