Week 7 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

After going 10-1 in Week 5, Week 6 was back to reality. Everything that went our way in Week 5 did not in Week 6, which is okay. We can’t expect to win that much *every week*. I do expect to come out positive at the end of the season though and that subscribers won enough to cover their sub plus a lot extra. That has been the case for four consecutive seasons and I don’t plan on stopping. I’m up 11.2 units on the season, a solid start through 6 weeks.

Week 6 Recap:

• Christian Kirk under 52.5 receiving yards
• D’Andre Swift under 61.5 passing yards
• Drake Maye U18.5 completions
• Spencer Rattler U 194.5 passing yards
• Mike Evans under 4.5 receptions
• A.J. Brown over 68.5 & alts
• Andrei Iosivas reception under 2.5
• Joshua Palmer U32.5 receiving yards
• Austin Ekeler U44.5 rushing yards
• Keon Coleman U2.5 receptions
• Ty Johnson over 43.5 rushing and receiving

I went just 6-7 this week for -1.14 units but there were multiple tilting losses that shifted the week. On his final drive, Drake Maye converted 3 fourth down opportunities to go over 20 completions with the game well out of hand. One stop on any of those and he goes under 18.5 completions.

Rattler threw for 140 yards in the first half, crushing during scripted plays and then struggled for a large majority of the second half as initially expected. Josh Palmer had zero yards until Patrick Surtain left the game, he then still only saw 3 targets, but two of them went for 38 yards. It’s a play I would make again. Without the Surtain injury he likely goes under.

Another CB injury haunted us on Monday with DJ Reed suffering a mid-game injury. Keon Coleman had just one catch until the middle of the 4th quarter. As soon as DJ Reed went down, the backup corner was playing 7-8 yards off Coleman and Josh Allen saw that. He pulled out of a run into an easy throw for 7 yards to Coleman.He ran a curl route the time after which was even easier with the corner 10 yards off him this time. I’m not sure what the fella was so scared about considering Keon Coleman can’t separate for his life but that was a tilting loss.

To wrap it up, we played Ty Johnson’s rushing and receiving over 43.5 after reports came out that he was starting in warmups and working with the 1’s.. We already knew he would get all of the long down and distance 3rd down snaps plus 2-minute drill work. Johnson didn’t catch a single pass all game. He still nearly got there on the ground (34 yards) but after starting the game off with a 12 yard run, he touched the ball just 3 more times the entire game as Ray Davis dominated work. Ray Davis actually had a higher touch share than all but one game of James Cook’s career.

Weeks like this are frustrating as I think more often than not we are probably profitable. With that being said, i’m excited to dive into Week 7 and we have already released 5 props!

Week 7 Player Prop Bets

Audric Estime (DEN) over 14.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Javonte Williams fumbled in the late 2nd quarter last week and didn't record another carry the rest of the game. Estime then started the second half. We already saw the Broncos try to work in Tyler Badie over Javonte Williams and Mclaughlin earlier this season before his injury, and they could try to go with Estime even more here after the two starters have largely stunk. This line is so low, though we really only need 4-5 carries to feel good about this bet against a Saints defense that has played over 150 snaps the last two weeks (including MNF the week prior) and now has an even shorter week. They allowed 5.2 yards per carry the last two weeks to TB and KC, leaving a ton of upside for Estime here. On top of my speculation, Sean Payton mentioned they need to get Estime more involved multiple times this week per Coachspeak Index. I also played alts and some ATD for fun.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba under 51.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings)

We played JSN under in a similar matchup and are going back to it (he finished with 31 yards on 4 receptions). The Falcons have allowed just 6.8 yards per target to slot receivers and play Cover-3 at around 40%. Per Rich Hribar, JSN has just a 10.9% target share with 0.30 yards per route run against Cover-3 this season. JSN still has just a 8.3 ADOT and has gone over this number in 2-of-6 games this year. The only games he has 50+ yards, he had 5, 8, and 12 receptions. Given the matchup difficulty, I don't anticipate him seeing that type of volume.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Tucker Kraft under 38.5 receiving yards (-115 DraftKings)

Kraft has gone over this number in just 2-of-6 games this season and has just a 3.3 average depth of target. He draws the Texans this week, who are allowing the fewest yards per target to tight ends this season (4.2). Both of Kraft's big games came with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs banged up. Last week, with Love in and all of the pass-catchers playing Kraft has just 4 targets in which he converted to just 13 yards.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Ja'Lynn Polk UNDER 26.5 Receiving Yards (-120 at DraftKings)

Another joint play with Monotone.

H/t Jake Lotenberg for the find and write up: “Polk has cleared this 20 yards once this season and has only caught 10/22 targets. HC Jerod Mayo said, "He needs to get over this mental hump. You gotta eliminate the dropped passes, you gotta be better blocking… He has to continue to grow, he has to work harder, he has to pay more attention to the details". Kendrick Bourne is being worked back into the rotation, and Kayshon Boutte surprisingly led the team in the routes this past Sunday. We may see Polk's route share go down in the coming weeks with the mistakes on the field and Bourne working back to full strength.” Polk also responded to Mayo, taking zero personal responsibility earlier, which I’m sure Mayo loved (sarcasm). The Patriots are also getting back KJ Osborn who was leading the team in snaps prior and will likely play over Polk.

Risk 1.2 units to win 1 unit

Joe Mixon (HOU) over 56.5 rushing yards (-120 at DraftKings)

This is a joint play with Monotone. We were really surprised this came in so low, but the final box score last week was a bit deceiving in terms of total touches. In the first half, with the game reasonably close, Mixon had 12 touches to Pierce's 3. He had just one carry after the Texans went up 24-7 in the third quarter. This workload also included Mixon's status in serious doubt throughout the week and coming off an injury. He'll most likely return to dominate work this week as long as it isn't a blowout either way. The Packers are a relatively soft matchup for opposing running games as well, allowing lines of:

• 24/109/2 to Saquon
• 12/103/0 to Jonathan Taylor
• 22/102/1 to Kyren Williams
• 22/93/0 to Aaron Jones

Last week against Arizona, the Cardinals running backs combined for 75 rushing yards on 16 carries as well. The Packers rank 22nd in rushing success rate allowed and running backs are averaging 4.65 yards per carry against them. Want to get in early here because this line should be in the mid-60's and we would play it to 61.

Risk 1.20 units to win 1 unit

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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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