Scott Smith’s Top Plays for UFC Mexico: Moreno vs Kavanagh
The UFC makes its highly anticipated return to Mexico City for a card that perfectly encapsulates the volatility and promise of the sport's deepest talent pool. In the main event, former two-time flyweight champion Brandon Moreno looks to reassert his dominance against Britain's Lone'er Kavanagh. But it's the undercard that truly defines this event—a landscape of extreme variance where massive favorites like Santiago Luna (-650), Ryan Gandra (-650), and Cristian Quinonez (-675) sit against desperate underdogs with puncher's chances and submission equity.
With eight fighters making their UFC debuts and nearly half the card featuring competitors with three or fewer Octagon appearances, this is a bettor's minefield: the data is rich, but dangerously thin where uncertainty reigns. From Luna's astronomical 18.20% knockdown rate to Kris Moutinho's unfathomable 14.68 strikes absorbed per minute, the numbers tell stories of mismatches waiting to happen—or traps waiting to spring. Welcome to Mexico City, where the odds are wide, the variance is high, value will be hard to find but we look to target key edges in the market.
Best Bets for UFC Mexico: Moreno vs Kavanagh
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