Week 9 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: Packers Rebound in NFC North Battle
With three large spreads, a big cluster of close matchups, and six teams on a bye, picks may be a little tougher to decipher in Week 9. Hopefully, with the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, we can select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick 'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.
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Week 8 Recap
If the Raiders didn’t completely fall apart in a shutout loss, my picks would have gone 5-0 on the week, but instead, I’ll settle for a 4-1 record with the Bills, Cowboys, Dolphins, and Seahawks all coming out victorious, bringing my season-long tally to 25-15.
Let’s move on to Week 9, where hopefully, we find success in both pick'em and survivor formats.
Pick'em Pool Breakdown
Before I get into the picks, note that I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 9 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.
However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 9 picks from your pool opponents by taking on only a modest amount of risk or no additional risk at all.
Favorite Favorites
Philadelphia Eagles @ Texans
This has the makings of a trap game with an undefeated team up against a Houston unit that has five losses and a tie, but I just don’t see it ending any other way than a victory for Philly on Thursday night.
The Eagles and their balanced squad are two-touchdown favorites on the road, with PoolGenius win odds set at 88%. Public bettors are riding with Philly 98% of the time, so you will win or lose with your pool.
New England Patriots vs. Colts
The Colts seemed to have thrown in the towel on the 2022 season with the switch to Sam Ehlinger under center and the trade that sent pass-catching back Nyheim Hines to the Bills. Jonathan Taylor is also dealing with an ankle injury, adding to the ugliness of the current Indy offense. This could be a messy game, but Bill Belichick will find a way to win it.
New England is favored by 5.5 at home with 70% Vegas odds to win and 90% of the public backing them this week.
Sensibly Priced Favorites
Green Bay Packers @ Lions
This pick makes me a little queasy since the Packers seem to be spiraling downward, but they did show some fight last week in Buffalo when they were clearly outmatched, and Aaron Rodgers, along with a strong run game and a solid pass rush, should prevail.
Green Bay is a 3.5-point road favorite in this NFC North battle, with 64% odds to win via both Vegas and PoolGenius. The public is taking them 74% of the time, which is much lower than games with similar spreads like Minnesota (89%) and Miami (87%), so this pick holds some value over your pool mates.
LA Chargers @ Falcons
This game boasts the second-highest over/under of the week, currently set at 49.5 points, with both defenses not stopping much of anything this season. LA is coming off a bye week and Atlanta just fought a hard battle against the Panthers, so the edge goes to Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler.
LA is a three-point road favorite in this tilt with 61% win odds via Vegas. Only 69% of public pickers are going with the Chargers this week, so there could be merit in the selection.
Value Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Rams
Both of these teams are dealing with poor offensive line play and desperately need a win this week. The run game is not panning out as expected for either offense, but I give the edge to Tom Brady and his weapons over Matthew Stafford and an ailing Cooper Kupp (ankle).
The Bucs are three-point favorites in this contest with 60% win odds via PoolGenius. Public bettors are only selecting Tampa Bay 58% of the time, so there’s value in rolling with them this week.
Survivor Picks for Week 9
Win Odds: Top 5 Week 9 Picks
Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.
Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Texans (87%, 14-point favorites)
- Buffalo Bills @ Jets (85%, 13-point favorites)
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Titans (84%, 12-point favorites)
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. Panthers (76%, 7.5-point favorites)
- New England Patriots vs. Colts (70%, 5.5-point favorites)
Pick Popularity
Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.
Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 9 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):
- Kansas City Chiefs vs. Titans (27%)
- Philadelphia Eagles @ Texans (19%)
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. Panthers (19%)
- Buffalo Bills @ Jets (11%)
- New England Patriots vs. Colts (7%)
Future Value
The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 9, you won’t be able to use them later.
According to PoolGenius, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:
- Buffalo Bills (10.3)
- Philadelphia Eagles (8.1)
- Kansas City Chiefs (7.7)
- Baltimore Ravens (5.5)
- Minnesota Vikings (3.3)
Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the PoolGenius Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.
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