Week 8 Breakout Player Model: Top NFL DFS Contrarian Plays
One of the biggest advantages you can deploy in daily fantasy is buying low on a player who has fallen out of favor with the rest of the field but is set up for a smash week. The 4for4 Player Stat Explorer is home to a model that compares a fantasy player's actual fantasy output with their expected fantasy output, based on their usage and historical data. The goal is to highlight players that have had the requisite usage (snaps, targets, air yards, etc) to produce big fantasy outcomes, but due to the natural variance of the sport have yet to do so. Many times, those underperforming players will be low-owned in DFS and make for fantastic contrarian plays, which this article will highlight.
More Week 8 DFS Strategy: Cash Game Breakdown | GPP Breakdown | Daigle’s Top Values and Picks | WR/CB Matchups
| Player Name | Team | Position | Fantasy Points | Expected FP | FP Over Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Rypien | DEN | QB | 8.9 | 20.3 | -11.4 |
| Brevin Jordan | HOU | TE | 0.0 | 9.1 | -9.1 |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | 7.0 | 14.9 | -7.8 |
| Russell Wilson | DEN | QB | 12.6 | 20.1 | -7.5 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | WR | 9.7 | 16.9 | -7.2 |
| Elijah Moore | NYJ | WR | 2.1 | 9.0 | -6.9 |
| Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | 14.7 | 21.3 | -6.6 |
| Tom Brady | TB | QB | 14.0 | 20.4 | -6.5 |
| Jared Goff | DET | QB | 6.7 | 13.2 | -6.5 |
| Mike Strachan | IND | WR | 0.0 | 6.5 | -6.5 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | BUF | WR | 2.9 | 9.3 | -6.4 |
| Zay Jones | JAX | WR | 8.4 | 14.7 | -6.3 |
| Romeo Doubs | GB | WR | 4.0 | 10.2 | -6.2 |
| Quintin Morris | BUF | TE | 5.9 | 11.9 | -6.0 |
| Baker Mayfield | CAR | QB | 7.6 | 13.3 | -5.7 |
| Kyler Murray | ARI | QB | 16.4 | 22.2 | -5.7 |
| Michael Bandy | LAC | WR | 1.0 | 6.4 | -5.5 |
| Marquez Callaway | NO | WR | 4.4 | 9.8 | -5.4 |
| Cooper Rush | DAL | QB | 6.3 | 11.4 | -5.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | 14.5 | 19.4 | -4.9 |
| AJ Green | ARI | WR | 3.9 | 8.6 | -4.8 |
| Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | 10.2 | 14.9 | -4.8 |
QB Justin Herbert, Chargers ($5,000 FD/$3,700 DK)
WR DeAndre Carter, Chargers ($5,000 FD/$3,700 DK)
TE Gerald Everett, Chargers ($5,000 FD/$3,700 DK)
The entire Chargers passing attack has landed on the breakout player model for Week 9. As a whole
WR Adam Thielen, Vikings ($6,200 FD/$6,200 DK)
Thielen has been flying under the radar, but his usage has been excellent. He ranks seventh in the league in targets inside the 20-yard line. I specifically like him on FanDuel. His price is severely depressed—it's not often you see similar salaries on both sites. Given the fact that FanDuel is touchdown-heavy with no bonuses and only half-point per reception, Thielen could put up a 6/60/2 stat line that lands him in the optimal lineup. The Cardinals have a pretty solid secondary and have been able to slow down top receivers in some contests. It is possible Cousins looks to Thielen a bit more this week with Jefferson seeing coverage from Byron Murphy.
QB Jared Goff, Lions ($7,300 FD/$5,500 DK)
Goff has been the definition of boom or bust. He has put up massive 30+ point performances where he dices up defenses. He has also put up single-digit fantasy performances where the Lions can't even move the ball. The underlying numbers indicate that he should have been racking up better fantasy numbers than he has been. There are a few mitigating factors that could be the reason he is slumping, but they may be taken care of this week.
D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown are set to return to the lineup. St. Brown tried last week and was knocked out of the game early. He and Swift should hopefully be back and ready to contribute for Goff this week against a pass-funnel defense in the Dolphins. The Dolphins can score and they can be scored on, which makes Goff an excellent bounce-back candidate ready to capitalize on unrealized fantasy points.
WR Diontae Johnson, Steelers ($6,300 FD/$5,600 DK)
I could charge Diontae rent because he lives in this article. It's wild to see him underperform every week with usage that should be able to catapult him into the top 10 of fantasy receivers. After the great game George Pickens had in prime time last week, even more DFS players will be hopping off the Diontae wagon. Johnson ranks second in unrealized air yards, fourth in overall targets, eighth in deep targets, and top 10 in routes run. It would absolutely crush my soul to give up on him at this point. He is going to have a week where he hauls in one of his deep targets and his 6/50 stat line turns into 7/100/1. At this point, I am personally pot-committed to Diontae having a splash game. Hopefully, it's this week in the battle of Pennsylvania.
