Best Week 4 Prophet Exchange Bets: Denver Dictates in Vegas

Sep 30, 2022
Best Week 4 Prophet Exchange Bets: Denver Dictates in Vegas

Week 4 brings some early critical moments for teams off to slow starts, which may be baked into lines. It is also the time when the projections of teams start to become solidified, so if there is variance in your perception of those projections, this could be the time to take advantage. Prophet Exchange runs on peer-to-peer betting, so the benefit is passed on to the bettor with more forgiving juice, read here for more on the benefits of using a sports betting exchange like Prophet Exchange. Let's see where the value lies in week 4...

Week 4 Prophet Exchange Picks

Broncos +2.5 @ Raiders

*Betting on Prophet Exchange takes the juice from -105 to +100.

As fun as it has been to clown Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson so far this season, this line feels like where the ribbing turns into disrespect. What the line says is these teams are basically equal on a neutral field, with a lean to the Raiders. That provides plenty of value on the Broncos because the logic behind that evaluation of these teams is not there.

Through three weeks, the Broncos are the 10th-rated team by DVOA and the Raiders are down at 24. The best individual unit that will hit the field is the Broncos' defense. Their performance has allowed Denver to stay afloat at 2-1, even without scoring more than 16 points in a game this season. Patrick Surtain II has been every bit of the top cornerback he was drafted to be and there is depth across the defense that has fueled this top-five unit. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, Las Vegas is still working to get elite receiver Davante Adams the ball more and will likely be without slot pass-catcher Hunter Renfrow for the second consecutive week.

There are valid questions surrounding the Denver offense, but looking at the setup against a talent-deficient Raiders secondary, it has the feel of an “if not now, when?” type game for the Broncos' offense. If the Denver offensive line is able to slow Maxx Crosby, there is not enough depth in the Raiders' pass rush to make Russell Wilson uncomfortable, and the talent advantage on the outside for the Broncos should become evident.

Browns MoneyLine -114 @ Falcons

*Betting on Prophet Exchange takes the juice from -118 to -114.

The Falcons have shown to be more entertaining and friskier than expected but the Browns are simply a bad matchup for Atlanta. Even with Jacoby Brissett starting and being viewed as an offensive restrictor plate for the Browns, Cleveland has scored 26+ points in each game so far.

These are two of the top eight offenses so far this season by DVOA. Cleveland is third and Atlanta is eighth. The Browns have had the best run game so far this season and the Falcons have had more than their fair share of issues slowing down the run. The Browns have recorded the most rushing yards and most explosive runs in the NFL. For Atlanta, they will press defenses athletically with Marcus Mariota and Cordarrelle Patterson in the backfield as well as Drake London and Kyle Pitts on the outside. Last Thursday, Cleveland faced another signal-caller who had to be accounted for in the run game in Mitch Trubisky. They seemed comfortable in keeping him off balance and limiting the Steelers' offense.

The injury report could be keeping this game closer as well with the Browns' defense possibly missing three starters on the defensive line who have not practiced this week, while Atlanta has had a fairly clean injury report. On third down, the Browns have the advantage as well and Atlanta is allowing the highest completion percentage in the league. With Brissett, who is willing to take the easy throw in front of him, the Falcons' defense should allow the Browns to move the chains at will. Even against a possibly short-handed Browns defense, there are enough questions about if the Falcons can keep up to make this a great bet.

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.


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