Breakout Receiver Model: Week 8

Oct 27, 2021

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The Breakout Receiver Model returns for Week 8, but before we get into this week’s results, let’s just bask in the glow of the Week 7's model results, where a whopping 50% of the players hit their expected fantasy points. Big-name players like Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin, all had monster days. On average, the under-performing cohort from last week scored 96% of their expected fantasy points, a fantastic sign of the model’s calibration. The model is rolling, so let's dig into the model's hits and misses, and check out the recommendations for the week ahead.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.

Last Week's Results

Hits

Week 7 Breakout Receiver Model, Hits
Player	Team	Position	XFP - Last 3	Week 7	XFP-Diff.
Terry McLaurin	WAS	WR	18.8	21.7	2.9
Mike Evans	TB	WR	14.5	28.6	14.1
Chris Godwin	TB	WR	9.9	21.1	11.2
Kalif Raymond	DET	WR	9.3	14.6	5.3
Bryan Edwards	LV	WR	9.2	11.8	2.6
Zach Ertz	ARI	TE	9	14.5	5.5
Robert Tonyan	GB	TE	8.7	14.3	5.6
Evan Engram	NYG	TE	7	7.4	0.4
Dallas Goedert	PHI	TE	6.4	10.5	4.1

As mentioned in the opening paragraph, it was a banner day for the breakout model in Week 7. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Terry McLaurin led the way with 20-plus fantasy point performances, but we also saw strong performances from the Lions’ Kalif Raymond, the Raiders’ Bryan Edwards, and a quartet of tight ends, including the old TE1 in Philadelphia, Zach Ertz, now an Arizona Cardinal, and the new TE1 in Philadelphia, Dallas Goedert, who both scored 4.1 or more fantasy points more than expected last week.

Misses

Week 7 Breakout Receiver Model, Misses
Player	Team	Position	XFP - Last 3	Week 7	XFP-Diff.
D.J. Moore	CAR	WR	15.5	10.3	-5.2
Robby Anderson	CAR	WR	13.5	2.9	-10.6
DeVonta Smith	PHI	WR	12.9	8.6	-4.3
Tyler Lockett	SEA	WR	9.9	2.2	-7.7
Allen Robinson	CHI	WR	9.4	2.6	-6.8
Cole Kmet	CHI	TE	8.6	6.8	-1.8
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	TEN	WR	8.5	0	-8.5
Keelan Cole	NYJ	WR	8.2	1.1	-7.1
Cameron Brate	TB	TE	7.2	0	-7.2

The Panthers looked atrocious offensively against the Giants in Week 7, ultimately pulling their starting quarterback Sam Darnold, and the Panthers’ receivers are feeling the brunt of that ineptitude. Both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson missed their lofty expectations by rather wide margins, as did the Seahawks’ Tyler Lockett, who continues to struggle without Russell Wilson at the helm. Allen Robinson, once again, is a victim of well below-average quarterback play and may be a lost cause in fantasy football for the remainder of the 2021 season.