Breakout Receiver Model: Week 8

Oct 27, 2021
 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 8

The Breakout Receiver Model returns for Week 8, but before we get into this week’s results, let’s just bask in the glow of the Week 7's model results, where a whopping 50% of the players hit their expected fantasy points. Big-name players like Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin, all had monster days. On average, the under-performing cohort from last week scored 96% of their expected fantasy points, a fantastic sign of the model’s calibration. The model is rolling, so let's dig into the model's hits and misses, and check out the recommendations for the week ahead.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, have recalibrated and reconfigured the receiver "buy-low" model from years past in order to better identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends who might be on the verge of a breakout performance. For the uninitiated, the breakout receiver model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than their recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily-weights the last three weeks of data.

Last Week's Results

Hits

Week 7 Breakout Receiver Model, Hits
Player Team Position XFP - Last 3 Week 7 XFP-Diff.
Terry McLaurin WAS WR 18.8 21.7 2.9
Mike Evans TB WR 14.5 28.6 14.1
Chris Godwin TB WR 9.9 21.1 11.2
Kalif Raymond DET WR 9.3 14.6 5.3
Bryan Edwards LV WR 9.2 11.8 2.6
Zach Ertz ARI TE 9 14.5 5.5
Robert Tonyan GB TE 8.7 14.3 5.6
Evan Engram NYG TE 7 7.4 0.4
Dallas Goedert PHI TE 6.4 10.5 4.1

As mentioned in the opening paragraph, it was a banner day for the breakout model in Week 7. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Terry McLaurin led the way with 20-plus fantasy point performances, but we also saw strong performances from the LionsKalif Raymond, the RaidersBryan Edwards, and a quartet of tight ends, including the old TE1 in Philadelphia, Zach Ertz, now an Arizona Cardinal, and the new TE1 in Philadelphia, Dallas Goedert, who both scored 4.1 or more fantasy points more than expected last week.

Misses

Week 7 Breakout Receiver Model, Misses
Player Team Position XFP - Last 3 Week 7 XFP-Diff.
D.J. Moore CAR WR 15.5 10.3 -5.2
Robby Anderson CAR WR 13.5 2.9 -10.6
DeVonta Smith PHI WR 12.9 8.6 -4.3
Tyler Lockett SEA WR 9.9 2.2 -7.7
Allen Robinson CHI WR 9.4 2.6 -6.8
Cole Kmet CHI TE 8.6 6.8 -1.8
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine TEN WR 8.5 0 -8.5
Keelan Cole NYJ WR 8.2 1.1 -7.1
Cameron Brate TB TE 7.2 0 -7.2

The Panthers looked atrocious offensively against the Giants in Week 7, ultimately pulling their starting quarterback Sam Darnold, and the Panthers’ receivers are feeling the brunt of that ineptitude. Both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson missed their lofty expectations by rather wide margins, as did the SeahawksTyler Lockett, who continues to struggle without Russell Wilson at the helm. Allen Robinson, once again, is a victim of well below-average quarterback play and may be a lost cause in fantasy football for the remainder of the 2021 season.

Breakout Receiver Model Recommendations

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